Huang Youguang is academician of academy of sciences of society of professor of college of industry of grain of Singapore southern Asia, Australia, distinguished economist, he analyses empty buy duty in Ceng Zhuanwen of not long ago, state empty buy duty cannot solve long-term house price problem. Be him below is textual:
Before the rationality that discusses empty buy tax, see the seriousness of empty buy first. Case of house property empty buy should be very general, what empty buy rate compares most country is big. But seriousness is like by overmeasure. The first, an IMF 2015 that often is cited year data, the empty place area that says Chinese whole nation amounts to 1 billion square metre. If this is not the data that is underestimated badly, show empty buy rate is not high, because do not exceed 2% of gross area.
Of course, the empty buy that exceeds this number greatly leads appraise value, for example with a year one does not exceed 20 degrees to be with n " empty buy " standard, according to the report, the empty buy of national electrified wire netting leads findings to show, "2017, big in the empty buy rate of urban house is 13.1% , empty buy of small town house is led in for 13.8% , rate of rustic house empty buy is 14.3% " . These digital itself are not low, but what predict than most person is low. Next, the basis uses empty buy of report, include logical empty place, for example the case such as journey, maintenance, for sale. Still have, china has more special being the child reads in the future with the case that marry and buys a house, also increase the empty buy that is not speculation in great quantities.
If adventurer causes the excessive wave motion of the price, may have undesirable effect. However, if house price has many bubble, of house price rise cannot last, it is after burst of house price bubble, adventurer also is met loss. If you think current house price has very big bubble correctly, a large number of you are actually OK gaining profit. You can be before bubble burst, sell the house, if need, can lease a building. If house price will fall, present hire, compared with house price, affirmative greatly on the low side. Although still do not have the person of the house, also can rent a house and do not buy a house, the ability after burst of bubble of price waiting for a room is bought. Of course, whether does current house price have many bubble, opinions differ from each other. Author apt thinks to do not have a large number of bubble.
Professor Huang Youguang is above the view of duty of empty to domestic building buy. The empty buy that the data that nevertheless he cites is national electrified wire netting leads findings, this data shows big in the empty buy rate of urban house is 13.1% . Nevertheless, about domestic building sky buy rate still has other a few data can make reference. Investigation of finance of family of China of university of southwest finance and economics shows with the newest report of the research center, according to the data that Chinese family finance investigated 2017, town family housing is had rate for 90.2% , among them, housing of town family much flatlet is had rate for 22.1% , and empty buy of town district housing is 21.4% .
According to estimation, 2017, the housing measure a total of empty place of market of Chinese town house 65 million. Divisional region looks, current China second line and case of empty buy of 3 lines city are more severe, empty buy leads city of a gleam of of apparent prep above. Buy led sky of second line city, 3 lines city to be as high as respectively 2017 22.2% with 21.8% , 16.8% of city of outclass a gleam of. Up to by 2017, chinese housing mortgages loan total remaining sum achieves 22.9 trillion yuan, be equivalent to 2018 27.9% of gross domestic product. According to estimation, 2017, the family of available buy housing not 47.1% what countervail mortgages loan holds mortgage loan total, predicting dimensions is 10.3 trillion yuan.
Say simply, it is current room of Chinese town empty buy 65 million, empty buy is led 21.4% , the guaranty that still goes up borrows money 10 trillion. So, are other country and region house empty buy led after all how? 2000 up to now, empty buy of the United States leads interpose at 1% to 3% . The housing empty buy of area of Chinese Hong Kong is led under 5% . The European Union investigates indication each country in the housing empty buy 2004 buy rate is average sky 9.5% . The empty buy rate 2008 is Japan 13.1% . The rate of housing empty buy 2001 is Chinese Taiwan area 17.6% . Will look from international, empty place area and empty buy rate are the index with scale estate venture more main, but situation of empty to housing place should have a lot of states statistic, bureau of American vital statistics is annual to the United States housing sky more buy rate undertakes assessment.
Be in Canada Wengehua, began to impose empty buy tax in March from last year, the building is annual empty buy reachs 6 months, need according to " of house property value 1% " will pay tax, chief commander of course of study of give false information is faced with every Nemesis money 10, 000 add yuan severe punishment. Be in Germany, owner must make empty room gets be usinged afresh, in the building unused rate exceeds the small towns of 10% , local government still can overturn those cannot hack housing.
And the law of France, Italy and England published a series of punishment measure in the light of unused room owner. In a few cities of France, the first the building is unused year, owner must 10% what the fine of pay is house money, it is the 2nd year 12.5% , it is the 3rd year 15% , with this analogize. Be in England, be as long as two years by empty buy like house property or above, the government will be right a note of the ancient Chinese five-tone scale of empty buy building collects 100% additional and municipal tax. Danish government is in 50 begin to be opposite before New Year more those are unused of building of 6 weeks of above possessory have penalty.
Chinese family housing is had rate achieve 92.8 ％ , the empty buy rate of commodity house amounts to 20% above. Can see from here, it is very difficult that building city wants to reach the mad level previously, house-owner is not fried is adamantine direction. But of the building perfective need still exists, a lot of families just do not have one ring house, some families have two or be many house. Chinese town is changed also afoot, real estate will still be investment heat 2019, but estate market will be overall keep stable.
