The 13rd tell
The dried food takes notes
Go up to tell us to be told, on this world, everything causes an effect possibly to other issue, do not have a person to be able to control the outcome of incident, nowhere is absent the risk. We eradicate without ability even without idea tentative idea risk. Additional, we still tell the distinction of uncertainty and risk, told " expectation is worth " concept.
The uncertainty of the risk
Tell in this in, I discuss a real case to sequential utterly ignorant first. This is a real story that produces on my body, one lets the person's creepy incident. Last summer, I awake suddenly in the middle of the night, discover a bat the head flitter round my wife. I grasp hauling racket, open scuttle, outside trying to drive house out of that bat. When mounting a bed afresh, I think: But became old hero,this answers me. Later, I am connecting the nightmare that became a few days. But bat does not have reappear, this thing went at long last. Nevertheless one day, my wife tells me: "Had not been over. "Had not been over..
She says, city of equestrian Sa Zhu Sai has a strict regulation is such: Be bitten by batty bite can cause very high hydrophobic incidence of a disease. They are having sharp tooth, if bat bit our head when we sleep soundly, we cannot see cut at all. This kind of possibility is very little, probability is very low, but not be 0, it is very low only just. State government sets: "You must inject hydrophobic vaccine. " I ask: "Why? " very apparent, the answer is the government calculated the city to expect to be worth. Of course, the probability of infection is very small. Nevertheless, once miss inject, consequence will be affirmative, repent clearly with your person unceasingly death. Once contract hydrophobic virus, die surely undoubted -- this is me cannot susceptive result, I must avoid this risk. I undertook estimation calculates expecting, got the verdict with state government. Then, we are vaccinal vaccinal.
Now, we recollect has discussed content, can reach a such conclusion -- think like economist mean, you always must understand the intention of oneself and other. We will analyse a case, ponder over the different motive that different crowd leaves in risk state, this case is: The way that income wins in the process runs in fund to developing fund manager.
Recently, the fund with bigger dimensions appeared to flow in capital market, it is especially in rich crowd, they cast partial capital to pair of strong fund. These cannot trade publicly to pouring fund, its regulation is, you can according to beforehand the time of set paragraph draw fund. Now, you gave your fund control advantageous position a professional illicit collect fund runs a company. Original, they use a lot of complex strategy to buy capital to be opposite strong inflation, capital of additionally one share is right strong vicissitude of the market. But on the whole, their illicit collect fund is managed by professional administrative company. Of company of management of illicit collect fund collect fees mode is worth us to think from economics perspective very much.
Now, we do a hypothesis: If you invested 1 million dollar to the middle of a certain pairs of strong fund, fund management person is considering to have two investment, an investment risk is very big: It acquires gains of 500 thousand dollar and loss the probability of capital of 500 thousand dollar all is 50% . An investment is invest 1 million dollar a more safe project. Your choice is: Withhold oneself 1 million dollar; Perhaps resemble cast coin in that way, additional obtain or lose 500 thousand dollar.
We will do a test, think: How much is the expectation value of redound of this venture capital investment?
This answer actually very simple, your redound is 500 thousand dollar is multiplied with 0.5, namely gain 250 thousand dollar; Or 500 thousand dollar is multiplied with 0.5 -- deficit 250 thousand dollar. Result, come of increase and decrease 0. You may like the stimulation of investment, or the uncertainty that you like to gamble. But, from the point of the angle of probable sex, this expectation value that invests redound is 0. So, your or acquires the safe investment of 0 redound, or obtains expectation value to be the redound of venture capital investment of 0. This is your choice.
We analyse fund management person again: Administrative person puts fund into the safe, obtain fund of 1 million dollar. Obtain the administration fee of 20 thousand dollar through managing this fund, namely your precatory 2% of 1 million dollar. But, if manage a person to use fund at venture capital investment, his expectation value is 70 thousand dollar.
Understand the concept that expectation is worth, can help us be in when facing a risk, define our best and decision-making strategy better, this is important like a when think like economist facet. Use this concept to forecast behavior of pair of strong fund supervisory, mix at least the behavior that forecasts ourselves is euqally worthy.
The group is foolish
We discuss the issue that risk uncertainty brings again. The notional use that we see not hard expectation is worth is very big, but probability or the real value of redound may decide very hard, and we also cannot know well and truly. Worse is, still have many evidential proof, we are likely to their understanding by systematization ground misrepresentation, among them the psychological process that partial reason is our oneself.
We had mentioned Zhanmusi Suoluoweiji in on one unit (James Surowiecki) best seller " the wisdom of the group " (Wisdom Of Crowds) , what I want to tell a group today is foolish. Actually, the group is foolish an economics branch that comes from psychology, we are called this branch " behavior economics " (Behavioral Economics) . I can elaborate this branch course in detail in the 11st unit again.
The behavior economics formation to group understanding and it the process undertook many analysis. Suoluoweiji is in " the wisdom of the group " in told a series of people to make flow and the way that have a test, told how the process that estimation has how many bean in a jar. He still was told about forecast average to search to be missing independently through many experts the magical story of submarine. But, we discover this among them crucial condition is: Everybody must become independent estimation perhaps make conclusion -- they cannot chat, incommutable opinion, cannot revulsive other concludes. Final, the organizer rises these independent conclusion integratedly, the analysis is wraparound for " the wisdom of the group " .
We can plant this phenomenon and the law that discover through numerous psychological evidence undertake contrast -- if the group had many communication, if the policymaker offers information to give opposite party each other, so we are formed likely through chain-reacting " the insanity of the group " , is not the wisdom that acquires a group. We are the people of rational ignorance, we get likely " news fall " influence, bring about us the way with serious right deviate.
[knowledge is little play a window]
News fall (Information Cascades) : Show as collective behavior arouses the grow in quantity of the number, individual the cost that shares collective action is reduced, then incentive more potential participator translate into are actual participator. In other words, get when the choice of people namely when the influence of forefathers information, can abandon oneself be fond of, a kind of phenomenon of the choice of follow forefathers.
We will do a hypothesis. I hope to assure the child's health, so, I decide to eat apple, cider and malic mashed vegetable or fruit to them, replace very popular now rubbish provision. Assume the person of kind of apple grows cost to reduce, discover some kind of chemical preparation can make all apples in the orchard mature in same time, can reduce picked cost so. I am right this thing utterly ignorant, I do not know at least the name of this kind of chemical preparation, I do not know this kind of apple is can fast decay, there is chemical preparation of remain in the apple that I also do not know to the child has, I more knowing is existence carcinogen among them.
But statement of watch of somebody fair development says, they had obtained evidence, this kind of chemical preparation can bring serious healthy risk to the child. I evaluate this kind of view without method, but the person that I am a rational ignorance, to me, this public statement is a kind of evidence only it seems that, prove somebody knows the news that my place does not know for certain, in other words, it is somebody know this kind of apple can produce ill effect for certain. Next, if appear again a person, suffer a moment ago the influence of that statement, he says: "Right, I also think this kind of chemical preparation is put in ill effect. " I know I do not understand relevant fact, but I do not know what whether they also put in information to be short of break. Again next, if appear,the 5th the 4th the 3rd person, person, person got this evidence is affected, that is to say additionally also a few people think these apples exist risk, so I can believe this testimony more and more, because I feel,they are mastering the news that I do not know.
Now, fall of news of a society was formed. Every new the addition person that supports this point of view, can become the new evidence that proves this conclusion, the conclusion of the group is built so was in over the foundation of this news fall, I dare not say or state with certainty the probability that oneself do not worry about to this kind of preparation produces harm, I also raise open doubt without reason. After all, everybody knows this kind of apple is harmful, and reason just knows because of more and more people this is a fact it seems that.
In actual life, have a such case: 1989, this kind of chemical preparation begins with " fourth acyl hydrazine " (Alar) current name is sold in the market. A commonweal organizes an issuance research to report conclusion thinks, this is a kind of breakneck chemical preparation. We know the working mechanism of media: Once a certain product appears on the market, media reports conduct propaganda can lengthy and tediously. The TV news program of American Colombia Broadcasting Corporation " magazine of 60 minutes of current affairs " label it top news, the icon of a skeleton was put in reporter back, with the dangerous sex that will emphasize preparation. Below the influence of relevant report, ginseng is numerous two courtyards held intense debate; The movie star contains hot tear to appeal everybody sincerely completely -- " save help the child " . Then, fourth acyl hydrazine is forced to stopped to sell.
The public opinion poll that the United States holds makes clear, american thinks, this kind of preparation is great to a of children health menace. But after a few years, american medicine association made point out after serious analysis to real data: "If be used according to the normative kind that passes sanction, acyl hydrazine does not meet man to cause menace to public health. " expand of chute further as information, the evidence of authentic proves finally, form so called 1989 " harmful fact " real reason, just think because of a lot of people this kind of preparation is harmful. Mutual aggrandizement is opposite the person of rational ignorance risk inaccurate is subjective understanding, brought about absurd result finally jointly, this is effect of a kind of group completely.
Tulip fanaticism, blame reason prosperity and " panicky "
Similar news fall also can cause financial panic and bubble. My individual thinks, the famousest group is foolish case is 17 centuries of 30 time " Holand tulip bubble " . At that time, appeared very enthusiastic tulip interlinks effect: At that time, tulip just is bred, a bulbar price rises ceaselessly, do not have acme it seems that. Tulip really very beautiful, but anyhow, the value with a bulbar tulip also should not exceed a house, this is phenomenon of reason of a kind of blame. It is when tulip bubble is the most serious, individual and bulbar price is worker of a male several times of year of salary more average. But, everybody " know " , investing tulip is a kind of very well-advised choice, can produce the redound of high specified number. Accordingly, the price of tulip is climbed ceaselessly litre. Finally, the price begins to drop.
Accumulate the price that rise through interlinking effect, also can form chain to drop. The general idea of people is: Since someone else begins undersell tulip, so they are the news that know I do not know for certain, so I also had better follow usu. in anticipation of or in order to bring about a fall in price. In this case, information brought about foamy to form, also caused panic likewise.
[unit brief summary]
From the Christian era since 4 centuries, we were witnessed all sorts of foamy are formed and undone, for instance: 1987 of the stock market steep fall, foamy of 90 time Internet " blame reason flourishs " . Of course, still have the house price before financial crisis soared 2008. World each district is put in the bubble with many and similar move, their cause of formation can divide it is 3 kinds: Rational ignorance, inevitable risk and we get easily the influence of news fall. These 3 kinds of reasons are the issue that we discuss in this one unit.
Actually, in our life a lot of decision-making included inevitable probable sex venture. If we want to be made rationally decision-making, so we must spend time serious estimation is different the probability of the result and redound. After finishing these estimation, we can use expectation value to think, use this kind of standard to help us make decision-making.
For instance: To when does that lord car that won't you just continue to be you buy comprehensive insurance? Lengthen a new stove to guarantee period how much is reasonable price? When you book You Lun steamer ticket, whether should buy travel insurance? To you, combination of which kinds of investment is just the plan of provide for the aged that fits you most? Of course, the most important is, awake in the middle of the night when you after discovery has a bat in the bedroom, you whether should vaccinal hydrophobic vaccine? In addition, you still should be remembered well a bit, that is: In most real case, the expectation value that we use actually may depend on subjective probability. Be wrapped by the group when us nip, when face blame reason to flourish or be not rational depression, with us the interest differs those are alleged " expert " opinion or the society spreads waterfall effect, can be worth the misrepresentation that makes systematization to expectation.
[premonitory]
In the analysis information is short of break, in the process of risk and information, we still have a measure to need a consideration, that is: The major news that we need and hopes to get is at first by someone else control, if we can resemble economist thinking in that way, we can know, they can make response to drive, ground of sex of their meeting strategy uses these information. Leave an unit, we discuss this topic.
