The behaves means to be able to affect us risk of probability is evaluated

Say what is not important, important is how to say. In our judge an idea or when handling a certain issue, also be same argument, depend on greatly their expressional form, it is the change of a little detail, the kind that also can allow us to handle an issue suffers an effect greatly. The clearest case is a risk evaluate. Everybody may feel, once decided the happening of a certain risk odds, that everybody can solve a problem with same way, but fact which are so simple! Even if these probability are of energy planning numerate, but the view that should change them a little only, we solve the method of the problem to also wanted to change accordingly. Cite a case, to a thing that produces rarely, if with relevant probability is not to use statistical probability to describe, that people can feel it happens more likely. Somebody has done a test, let two groups of psychiatrists evaluate a patient that makes Jones to be able to leave hospital from bughouse. Nevertheless, about the circumstance of Mr Jones, two groups of experts got different view. Among them, the first group knows " the odds of occurrence rough stuff of Mr Jones is 10% " ; And the 2nd group knows " every 100 resemble Mr Jones among such patient, 10 meetings appear rough stuff " . What actually this says is one and the same, but do you feel the 2nd kind of view lets a person feel Mr Jones appears more likely rough stuff? Experimental result also proved this, the 2nd group of expert numbers that reject Jones leaving hospital are double the first group! Additional, still a kind of circumstance also can affect us the understanding to probability, namely " the oversight of denominator " . Where is what meaning? If that is to say can appear vivid picture in brains, doing the easier oversight is pure data when deciding. E.g. , have below these two kinds of views, the first kind says " this kind of medicine can suffer from with preventing children on such-and-such disease, but causing the odds that destroys a look all one's life is 0.001% " , the 2nd kind says " the children that has this kind of drug, every 100 thousand have a person to be met all one's life destroy a look " . Although two say is a thing, but the children that the 2nd kind of expression can let a person more easily associate to a look that be destroyed, discipline of small off year is destroyed to allow much more miserable, this kind of view is then more influential force, let us not be willing to use this kind of drug more.