On April 8, national hair changes appoint print and distribute " new-style 2019 town changes construction key job " announcement, put forward: The city zone often lives population 1 million - the Ⅱ of 3 million big city cancels settle to restrict in the round; The city zone often lives population 3 million - the Ⅰ of 5 million big city unlocks settle condition in the round, cancel key group settle to restrict in the round...
Can say this is the revolution of system of Chinese census register, indicating at the same time, major 34 lines city " 0 doorsills settle " the times comes formally.
Next, each estate of big city encircles a climax, include Xuzhou.
But, this policy, have after all very much to the benefit of Xuzhou how old? Compare city of strong second line, is Xuzhou in " grab battle of National People's Congress " in can you win out? What effect to have to Xuzhou building city?
Do not have apparently so hopeful. Below Xuzhou room elder brother is brief analyse.
1
Xuzhou city dimensions: The whole nation only the 44th
According to the announcement, to countrywide city classification is carried out. Classifying a standard is " the city zone often lives population " (not be whole town often lives population) , countrywide city divides such a few kinds:
This the announcement is to the policy of of all kinds city:
Ⅱ big city: Cancel settle to restrict in the round
Ⅰ big city: Put condition of open wide settle in the round
Especially big city, exceed big city: Adjust policy of perfect and integral settle, increase settle scope considerably...
So, what level is Xuzhou? Have final conclusion early: Ⅱ big city, namely the city zone often lives population 1 million - 3 million.
2017 in the Xuzhou city overall planning of give an official of the State Council, to 2020, central the city zone often lives population control is in less than of 2.88 million person. (return all but to arrive Ⅰ big city. )
Press down a system to plan according to Jiangsu provincial capital, nanjing is especially big city, suzhou, having stannum is Ⅰ big city, xuzhou and Changzhou, Nantong, the Huaihe River is installed, hill of the Yangzhou, harbor that connect the cloud, elder brother, Jiang Yin is Ⅱ big city.
In the whole nation, exceed big city only on north deep wide 4, namely city of 4 big a gleam of. Especially big city has 9: Chongqing, Tianjin, Chengdu, Dongguan, Nanjing, Zhengzhou, Hangzhou, Changsha, Shenyang. Ⅰ big city has 13.
In Ⅱ big city, xuzhou is discharged only the 17th.
That is to say,
In the urban dimensions of official standard,
Xuzhou discharges the 44th only in the whole nation.
2
Unlock settle, good to Xuzhou benefit do not calculate big
As Ⅱ big city, the policy of Xuzhou is to cancel settle to restrict in the round. Actually, xuzhou is opposite at present the limitation of settle is already special and comfortable, want be graduate of school of ability of old technical secondary school only, perhaps buy a house in Xu, can settle (Xuzhou is not restricted to buy) .
And, according to the new rule that Jiangsu saves, 5 city number of households and total population connects North Jiangsu change: Since January 1, 2019, the Xuzhou, harbor that connect the cloud, the Huaihe River is installed, saline city, Su Qian 5 city resident by lawful and stable abode (contain rent) or stabilize obtain employment legally and attend town society to be sure, can be inside 5 city limits town district freedom is migratory registered permanent residence.
So, xuzhou cancels settle to restrict in the round, the meaning does not calculate big.
But for city of circumjacent to Xuzhou province, for instance village of north of the Huaihe River, old city, jujube, it is a benefit good. These often are in the provincial person of Xuzhou deal, job, want to be willing only, OK settle arrives Xuzhou, can enjoy the welfare such as the educational medical treatment that binds with census register and social security. Of course, if think superior elementary school, still want to have house learning an area. The one part person of new settle, final meeting buys a house in Xuzhou.
3
Grab battle of National People's Congress, can Xuzhou win out?
And this town turns census register reform, say simply, namely: Control of a gleam of, second line relaxes, 34 lines open the door of settle greatly. The Ⅱ such as Xuzhou big city should cancel settle to restrict in the round, Ⅰ big city should put condition of open wide settle in the round. Look from policy literal, should be Ⅱ big city can attract more population.
As expected is the meeting such? May not.
Beijing Shanghai restricts population all the time, but everybody still leave no stone unturned wants to squeeze. Small town unlocks settle in the round already in, but grow without because of this population, continue even population prediction of a person's luck in a given year.
Unlock settle, can not attract population to flow into necessarily. A simple truth is, the city is more charming, no matter census register doorsill is much taller, won't hold off the population with constant in a steady stream to flow into. Contrary, if the city does not have appeal, even if cancels settle to restrict in the round, be afraid also stimulate population to flow into hard.
The person goes toward altitude, also be a truth.
Now, hangzhou, Suzhou, should put condition of open wide settle in the round without the Ⅰ such as stannum big city, can have that Xuzhou grabbed these cities?
Apparent very difficult. Cities of these strong second line not only economy developeds, much, high grade resource centers obtain employment opportunity, and the city that return a building is restricted to buy, settle is meant will have house bill, this kind of profit is good clearly. So, the building city of these cities also has latent capacity more accordingly.
Feasibility condition is, city of strong second line attracts more renown school graduate, investor. Talent and capital flow into city of strong second line quickly, those who flow into Xuzhou can be population only.
4
Develop a town group, xuzhou brim is changed
Notice a requirement this: Push a city deep group development. Mention accelerate Beijing ferry look forward to to cooperate with construction of area of big bay of HongKong and Macow of development of development, unifinication of area of delta of the Yangtse River, another name for Guangdong Province, also mention support to become change city group high quality develops, early childhood to breath out Campagna of middle reaches of long, the Yangtse River, upper bay, Central Plains, the central Shaanxi plain, Lanzhou, Xining, breathe out slope of north of hill of Bao Eyu, day, another name for Yunnan Province is medium city group, the requirement breeds development modernization city to encircle... but still do not have city of sea of the Huaihe River group, without Xuzhou city circle.
After area of afterwards big bay, unifinication of long triangle area rises formally for national strategy. The construction that is about to be faced with more policy to give aid to is devoted. Near future Jiangsu captures approved edge river city group city border railroad in all 8, especially Changzhou - without stannum - Suzhou - Shanghai railroad, contact Su Xichang and Shanghai more close together, form " super change with the city " .
Long triangle is super city group, it is the biggest to Xuzhou person appeal city group. Shanghai, Nanjing, Suzhou, without stannum, Hangzhou, it is Xuzhou " grab battle of National People's Congress " the biggest rival. In fact, these cities also are Xuzhou population drain main destination.
According to scale of Tecent big data " sphere of influence of domestic main town pursues " , proved this.
Right, xuzhou is the sphere of influence of Suzhou.
We do it city of proud center of area of economy of sea of the Huaihe River, became the sphere of influence of others home.
The competition between different level city, also formed " food chain " .
At " food chain " the most topmost, it is city of 4 big a gleam of. Capable Nanjing person, Suzhou person, go to Shanghai the job, buy a house; Capable Xuzhou person, go job of Nanjing, Suzhou, buy a house; Xuzhou, attract prefectural area and circumjacent city capable the person will buy room, life; And at " food chain " rock-bottom county and 45 lines city, can attract local rural population to go into town only. Be down again, it is broad and hollow the country that turn.
5
Small town does not have future, the beard that buy a house is careful
" new-style 2019 town changes construction key job " in, allude publicly first " systole city " .
Systole in small town wants thin body strong put oneself in another's position, change adds volume program thinking inertially, severe accuse increment, dish put an amount alive, guide population and public natural resources to be centered to the city zone.This is meant, space of these population prediction of a person's luck in a given year, city is ceaseless and unused " systole city " , prospective development will get a lot of limitation, build new wall impossibly greatly again.
2007~2016 year, china had 84 cities to appear " contractive " . These cities were experienced successive 3 years or of 3 years of above often live population decreases.
Not bad, the population of Xuzhou has been in circumfluence, often live population from 2012 8.56 million, add to 2018 to 8.8 million. But, change at the city " food chain " rock-bottom county, not certain hopeful.
Each are big now the city unlocks settle to restrict, increase " suck blood " , the Xuzhou of small town in regarding as each county, although unapt be " systole city " , but development latent capacity is inferior to big city for certain.
The action of the county is nearby town is changed, attract a farmer to go into town. Prospective small town has living property only, did not invest attribute. Although want to buy a house in the county, the core section that also must focus in resource.
Chinese town is changed rate is near already 60% , and Chinese mouth grows also more and more delay, negative growth will appear after predicting 10 years. Town spends the later period in be being entered, it is population flows in intercity, to metropolitan, city teeming in. Be said like Chou Baoxing of counselor of the State Council: China is impossible again city of without foundation construction group, city circle.
Did not include national city group Xuzhou, the outlook is not certain and pessimistic. Regard center of area of economy of sea of the Huaihe River as the city, future still has certain competition ability. But competition ability loses to wait for a city at growing trigonometry group, it is us must approbatory fact.
To the proposal of investor of Xuzhou house property, much flatlet is had to produce in Xuzhou, can consider to invest long three-cornered big city. For instance Nanjing, Hangzhou, Suzhou, these cities put condition of open wide settle now, be restricted to buy is not a problem. More what is more,the rather that, do not put the egg in a basket, also be investment truth.
