Before before long, when Chinese people university Professor Di Zhenwu accepts Guangzhou daily special report, say: "Comprehensive 10 years before 2 child policy is carried out, fertility-rate of countrywide average total should be in 1.65 the left and right sides. Comprehensive after two child policy is carried out, summation fertility-rate rises somewhat, exceed 1.7 above, did not achieve international academia to think ' low fertility-rate trap ' critical value (1.5 the following) . " this says or state with certainty serious misdirect public opinion. Di Zhenwu is character of core of Chinese mouth academia, ever was in in the center of April 26, 2011 in study of collective of the Political Bureau, explain population problem. He holds the position of Chinese mouth to learn chairman from 2014, 2018 be reappointed consecutively this duty, be hired to be supervisor of engage by special arrangement by national control commission, the tenure comes in March 2023. The position of the bound learns in population in view of Di Zhenwu, be necessary labor its opinion on public affairs and its influence.
One, what Di Zhenwu goes is computative and forecast
Can highlight those who reflect action of Di Zhenwu learning most, it is his paper 2014 " the demography consequence that unlocks 2 embryoes policy in the round instantly is analysed " . This article says: "If unlocked 2 embryoes to bear policy in the round instantly 2012, future inside 4 years, our country year goes stranger mouth to will be achieved respectively 35.4 million, 49.95 million, 40.25 million, 35.4 million. " but be in comprehensive in 3 years of the 2016-2018 after 2 child policy is carried out, an unripe population that national statistic bureau announces part only 17.86 million, 17.23 million, 15.23 million, peak value 17.86 million far also be less than Di Zhenwu to calculate peak value the half of 49.95 million.
From the point of effect of 2 child policy, of Di Zhenwu forecasting is unusual more. Opposite 2011 the base of 16 million, the height is a stranger mouth increment after he forecasts policy to carry out 33.95 million (namely 4995-1600) . But press data of national statistic bureau, relative to 16.55 million 2015, the increment height after policy is carried out is only 1.31 million (namely 17.86 million - 16.55 million) , be less than the 1/20 that he forecasts.
This is not Di Zhenwu to be opposite the Gu exemple of the serious miscarriage of justice of population situation. For instance, he said 2008: "At present China adds population newly every year to be in 16 million the left and right sides, will reach a peak 2012, achieve 19 million. " here increasing population newly may be reporter a slip of a pen, he indicates actually should be an unripe population. But according to data of national statistic bureau, 2006 to 2012, china gives stranger mouth every year to all be made an appointment with 16 million, 2012 only 16.35 million, far 19 million what forecast under him.
Be like again, be in alone after 2 child are carried out 2014, the whole nation gives stranger mouth sexual distinction to compare small fall 1.72 to 115.8, and be born population criterion microlitre 470 thousand to 16.87 million. Dan Di Zhen Wu is in in Feburary 2015 however exaggerate ground says, the whole nation gave unripe sexual distinction to compare 2014 " bluff type " descend, give stranger mouth amount " bouncing type " rise. He still forecasts: "Gave unripe number to be able to hop substantially once more 2015, a new birth is small height general as scheduled and to. Annual gave unripe number to be able to be approached likely 2015, achieve exceed 18 million even. " but press data of national statistic bureau, the whole nation gave stranger opening 2015 only 16.55 million, not only did not hop substantially, compare instead on year decrease 320 thousand.
Be like again, be in comprehensive after 2 child carry out a year Feburary 2017, di Zhenwu predicts, "935 " during annual and average add 900 much people, be in finally " 935 " end (namely 2020) we can be achieved 1.42 billion the left and right sides. But according to data of national statistic bureau, "935 " first 3 years 2016, 2017, the population increment of 2018 is respectively 8.09 million, 7.37 million, 5.3 million. And, what did not come two years is new increase population the meeting is far little at 5.3 million. Although maintain in the level of 5.3 million, "935 " during annual and average growth also only 6.27 million, forecast than him 900 want more little 30% much, total population is most only 1.406 billion, far less than 1.42 billion.
Di Zhenwu not only trend of population of serious miscarriage of justice, still lack basic common sense, be borne to support restriction even and talk irresponsible. For instance, on May 8, 2011 " Bing looks " the report recommends Di Zhenwu's word: "Population year all the world average level of increase rate is 3 ‰ , . . . Because China executed calculated to bear policy, population year all increase rate is approaching world average level, " . Actually, 2010 world population year all increase rate makes an appointment with 11 ‰ , the 3 ‰ that he says outclass. Be like again, on November 12, 2013 " People's Daily " publish those who interview Di Zhenwu to report: "1970, countrywide population 600 million much " . But countrywide population already exceeded 800 million 1970.
2, right comprehensive before 2 child the estimation of fertility-rate
Dope shows deviation, or now and then mouth by accident excusable. Even if forecasts deviation to also can return to be deficient in for professional level greatly relatively. But one and again again and 3 ground are in same a fault on direction so unusual, making a person suspect this is in intended twist. Opinion on public affairs was in Di Zhenwu it seems that recently continue this kind of behavior.
Di Zhenwu says, register number with public security census register computative, 2006-2014 year, chinese summation fertility-rate is 1.71. Public security data is not public, do not know how he gets these data, more cannot test and verify his computation. Because census register policy is adjusted, abhorrent sex exists between data of different a particular year, have one person even many. The author ever was assisted this year draft National People's Congress of a whole nation to suggest, solve one person many and even the problem that one's status as a student and census register fault compound; A lot of people let the child go up outerly in those days door with avoid family planning is punished, after waiting for family planning of census register unhook, go up in this locality again door, cause one person many.
Di Zhenwu says, elementary school was in his basis 2017 2007-2010 of officer strength cipher out year fertility-rate is 1.69. But after the part partaking to teach funds in the center of 1997 oneself, in school student several have tendency of make a false report for a long time. After accepting electronics native place 2013, each grade counts general shrink in school student 10% above. Although management of one's status as a student is rigorous with each passing day, but because be in,school student number involves educational funds, phenomenon of make a false report is put an end to hard, and the make a false report before electronics book is adopted clears harder. Door of Ministry of Education deletes book of serious go back to school after prolonged absence for health reasons special discretion, still need parent application even.
Mix in the light of population bear, national statistic bureau announces the sampling investigation fertility-rate of 1 ‰ every year by regular meeting of be used to, announce an unripe population with statistical bulletin, mantissa meets 0 a particular year can undertake census, mantissa meets 5 a particular year can undertake 1% sample " population small reconnaissance survey " . Among them, 10 every years census expends vast labor power and financial capacity, it is the society with the greatest peacetime arouses; Because,its necessity is other data source hard condition of accurate report population. In addition, wholesome orgnaization still can publish childbirth data every year.
Watch 1 indicated different origin report or computative 2007 come to gave stranger opening 2010. Among them, census was mixed 2010 2015 1% " population small reconnaissance survey " the population that uses corresponding age, latter is adjusted into scale by countrywide total population; Count by childbirth computative is to defend life form to produce number alive in those days / rate of delivery of be in hospital; The student was number of each grade student respectively 2017, assume all children go to school 6 years old, and did not change year. Express according to life computative, since 2006, the 0 accumulative total mortality that come 12 years old are less than 2.5% , so oversight dies young finite to analysing an effect.
Different origin data is born each years correspondingly population (10 thousand people) national statistic bureau in those days bulletin 2010 census 2015 1% " population small reconnaissance survey " by sampling investigation fertility-rate computative by in those days wholesome childbirth number is computative 2017 student 2007 1594 1525 1484 1471 1364 1652 2008 1608 1562 1553 1510 1408 1642 2009 1615 1566 1567 1421 1436 1720 2010 1592 1379 1517 1245 1454 1747 2007-2010 year all 1602 1508 1530 1412 1415 1690 2007-2009 year all 1606 1551 1534 1467 1403 1671, the student number that Di Zhenwu uses when estimation fertility-rate wants outclass other data. Be aimed at 2007-2010 year summation fertility-rate, according to bulletin of national statistic bureau computation is 1.56, census was answered 2010 measure for 1.46, 2015 " population small reconnaissance survey " time measure for 1.51, sample every year direct calculation is investigation data 1.37, count by childbirth computative for 1.37. If the census a particular year of take out on the low side the data 2010, the result is respectively 1.57, 1.54, 1.53, 1.42, 1.37, all and remarkable under Di Zhenwu by public security data estimated 1.71 and by education data is estimated 1.69.
In all sorts of methods, according to sampling every year investigation data calculates summation fertility-rate the directest, also be the current method on international. Although use sample only 1 ‰ , but the effect that does not get collect data benefit. Census data is systematization is collected, better land maintains the internal consistency of data, behoove is the most comprehensive occupy with the most authoritative population, its accuracy also is " population small reconnaissance survey " place evidence.
Under photograph comparing, data of public security, education has tendency of make a false report not only, and because collect time to differ with method divergence, existence interior is abhorrent quality. When estimation summation fertility-rate, educational data can be offerred only count in school student, and mother generation data must come from other data source. These elements give deviation sex service data leave a space.
Especially, the estimation of summation fertility-rate involves the age to woman amount, birth age distributings and do not give those who give birth to population to choose wait for link. If choose favorable data painstakingly in every link, cause the error of 5% , those 3 link can bring the deviation of 15.8% . Be like fructification border fertility-rate is 1.45, this kind of selective service data is OK even cipher out 1.68. In view of the consistent performance that Di Zhenwu forecasted in the past, unscramble the twist of data and hyperbole with him, in cannot eliminating his estimation process to summation fertility-rate, selective service data in order to reach the conclusion of serious misdirect.
Di Zhenwu earlies childhood, "Defend a committee of planning according to the country the whole nation bore investigation 2017, 45 years old of women are borne in the end period when, bore 1.68 children on average. This agrees basically as a result with respect to the data consideration that gets with Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Public Security. " but 2017 woman of 45 years old, be was born 1972 70 hind, the 2007-2010 that calculates fertility-rate in him year in interval, already was 35-38 year old, crossed a baby boom early; And the baby boom falls in 2007-2010 year woman, answering 2017 is 34 years old are controlled, be born in namely 1983 80 hind. We investigate the data that fertility-rate reframes according to sampling every year, computation they have 1.25 only in the accumulative total fertility-rate 2017, all one's life child number exceeds 1.4 hard, far from can Zhen Wugen of evidence a surname occupies conclusion of education and calculative of public security data.
3, right comprehensive the judgement of 2 child effect
Use lag comes at bearing the educational data of condition " amend " fertility-rate, having deep lesson. For instance, 2000 census in those days investigation fertility-rate is 1.22. Although before a lot of investigation shows, summation fertility-rate is in the later stage in taking the place of 1990 is small already to 1.2-1.5, but official scholar uses educational data census the attune on the fertility-rate of 1.22 47.5% to 1.8. Be in after this in nearly 10 years of time, doorknob of family planning ministry " amend " after 1.8 act according to for authoritative data, again and again bungle population policy is adjusted. However, census data answered the basis 2010 measure, in those days fertility-rate only 1.35.
Di Zhenwu uses educational data to break country of call the turn to did not drop into low fertility-rate trap, hereat ability repeats. Than the likelihood empty is tall more serious problem is, teaching what data mirrors is the birth condition at least 6 years ago, bear the rapid change of apiration now without the body.
If from sampling investigation data is judged, summation fertility-rate already dropped considerably after 2010. In 2007-2010 year, fertility-rate of sampling investigation summation is to part 1.45, 1.48, 1.37, 1.19; Eliminate census a particular year is inferior 2010 data, it is on average 1.43. And 2011-2015 year fertility-rate of sampling investigation summation is respectively 1.04, 1.25, 1.22, 1.26, 1.05, it is on average 1.16, than 2007-2009 year want low 19% , among them highest value wants under 2007-2009 year the lowermost value between.
Nevertheless, give stranger mouth to come by bulletin computative, summation fertility-rate is in around was stabilized basically 2010. Actually, difference exists all the time between the with sampling investigation data of statistical bulletin. In 2001-2009 year, an unripe population of statistical bulletin is more than be being wanted computatively by sampling investigation fertility-rate 980 thousand to 2.67 million, average and annual much 1.8 million. But in 2011-2015 year, this favorable balance of trade expands further 2.91 million to 5.23 million, average and annual want much 3.87 million. How does such big difference explain after all, be afraid should when census data was announced 2020.
If be with census,allow, sampling investigation apt underestimates fertility-rate, and fertility-rate of overmeasure of statistical bulletin apt, but sampling investigation fertility-rate should compare bulletin computative a few more authentic. In 2001-2009 year, sampling investigation gives stranger mouth computatively to be answered than census measure data, year all little 710 thousand; And statistical bulletin gives stranger mouth to want to be answered than census measure data, want much 230 thousand to 2.3 million, year all much 1.07 million. Use mixed 2000 census data was checked 2010, we also discover sampling investigation data also wants to compare annual the data with statistical computative bulletin, can reflect the long-term change trend that gives stranger opening according to the facts more.
Sampling investigation fertility-rate is calculate directly by the sampling example of 1 ‰ , and an unripe population of statistical bulletin also be to be based on same sample actually, but undertook adding counterpoising adjustment in computation. Although the change as a result of example, sampling investigation fertility-rate may show bigger fluctuation, but do not give stranger mouth to get in that way like bulletin the influence of cognitive deviation.
If say 2011-2015 year fertility-rate still anything that misleads people is heavy, right comprehensive effect of 2 child policy forecasts one fault again wrong it is abundantly clear. Watch of 2 forecast those who come from former state to defend editor in chief of Wang Peian of vice director of committee of planning " carry out comprehensive population of two child policy is fluctuant calculate research " , the expert of first place of this report rank is Di Zhenwu. Although before alone executive effect of 2 child policy is adumbrative what China bears apiration is low fan, but this forecasts still be erroneous in what at the beginning of 2 child are carried out, announce in the round in.
Former state defends what the committee of planning gave birth to population to going out 2016 to forecast occupy with statistical bulletin number (10 thousand people) nonperformance is comprehensive two child are carried out comprehensive two child policy is low in forecasting, forecast tall forecast statistical bulletin 2016 1767 1767 1767 1767 1786 2017 1770 2023 2110 2195 1723 2018 1725 2082 2189 2294 1523 2019 1675 1982 2077 2173 - 2020 1583 1846 1936 2036 - by this report, comprehensive after 2 child policy is carried out, give stranger mouth height to will appear 2018, but bulletin gives stranger mouth to saw a top in those days 2016. According to statistical bulletin data, an unripe population 2017 only 17.23 million, forecast than lowest 20.23 million little 3 million, compare what do not unlock 2 child to forecast even 17.7 million little still 470 thousand; And 15.23 million what was born 2018, forecast than lowest 20.82 million little full 5.59 million, compare what do not unlock 2 child to forecast 17.25 million little still 2.02 million.
Frankly speaking, we are in comprehensive at the beginning of 2 child policy is carried out, too hopeful also to the estimation of policy effect. But to all the time caution China is immersed in low fertility-rate crisis for us, reality is grimmer than what we expect, it is strongly confirm only our worry. After this, we published in October 2017 " the two favorable opposition that from 19 large populations policy content sees population data will be faced with attack " mention in one article: "A 2018 unripe population to 2021 forecast what defend a committee of planning under the country far, can say explicitly even, give stranger mouth to be able to achieve a country to defend a committee of planning to calculate floor level (low forecast) possibility is 0. " the data 2018 accords with this one judgement.
4, to prospective population trend forecast
Di Zhenwu's population projection one fault is again wrong, did not let him scruple somewhat. Besides firm say comprehensive fertility-rate of the summation after 2 child policy is carried out exceeds 1.7 outside, he is professed still, "The fertility-rate of Chinese future may fall 1.6 the left and right sides, nevertheless, this meeting is a long-term course. " the meaning below his character is, chinese fertility-rate can maintain the level in 1.6 above for a long time, and won't drop into low fertility-rate trap. This kind of view masked austere low fertility-rate trend completely.
Investigate data according to sampling, 2015, 2016, the summation fertility-rate 2017 is respectively 1.05, 1.24, 1.58. And the summation fertility-rate that gives stranger opening 3 years according to bulletin is respectively 1.53, 1.66, 1.63. Latter comparing is former in comprehensive before 2 child are carried out wanted 2015 tall 46% , wanted the first year 2016 after carry out tall 34% , but to 2017 criterion only tower above 3% . Why is the summation fertility-rate that reachs by two kinds of methods disappeared like the miracle 2017 unknown.
Although the summation fertility-rate 2017 looks,be close to Di Zhenwu forecast, but among them very major ascribe the provisionality element that 2 child policy piles up, can disappear very quickly consequently. Investigate data according to sampling, in the summation fertility-rate of 1.58, the fertility-rate of one child, 2 child, 3 child and above is respectively 0.67, 0.81, 0.11. Among them, 2 child fertility-rate is taller than one child fertility-rate, occupy above of summation fertility-rate half even. Because gave birth to one child ability to give birth to 2 child, it is so when birth state is stable, 2 child fertility-rate inevitable under one child fertility-rate. Take out element of 2 child accumulation, although assume to there is the mother that is as high as 60% to be able to bear 2 child in giving birth to the father and mother that has one child, so the natural summation fertility-rate 2017 also has 1.18 only (namely 0.67+0.6*0.67+0.11) .
This one trend is in more apparent 2018. Sampling investigation fertility-rate of this years has not been announced, but give the fertility-rate with stranger computative mouth to be only by statistical bulletin 1.46, than 2017 1.63 reduced 10% . 2017, 2 child amount is 1.22 times of one child, and 1.21 times 2 child fertility-rate is one child, two diploid close. And 2018, 2 child still compare one child much, mean 2 child fertility-rate to comparative roughly with one child fertility-rate at least. Still also had in the summation fertility-rate of 1.46 2018 namely make an appointment with 1/4 but ascribe piles up. Take out this element, natural fertility-rate only 1.1.
Accordingly, tend as accumulation disappear, summation fertility-rate will decline quickly 1.2 lower even levels, will far under Europe and United States, remarkable also under Japan, conduct oneself in society together with the East Asia country such as Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and area bound lowest. China drops authentic of low fertility-rate trap undoubted.
This one trend is early reflect the abidance at one child fertility-rate low fan. From 2001 to 2007, the one child fertility-rate of sampling investigation parts only 0.67, 0.8, 0.78, 0.72, 0.56, 0.69, 0.67. Because never have restriction to bearing one child, nonexistent hide the truth from the motive that signs up for one child, underestimate possibility of one child fertility-rate so very small.
The woman is deferred or abandon bearing pull possibly low one child fertility-rate. If just be deferred,bear, after fertility-rate can fall first, that one child rises, but if be to abandon bearing, after child fertility-rate drops, that won't pick up. Actual condition may upright at both between, especially a lot of defer the woman that bear, although want,be born in future also if may not wishs. From in recent years one child fertility-rate is overall and ceaseless go low, and continuously such long in light of, prospective fertility-rate picks up finite. Although one child fertility-rate is final,stabilize in 0.8, that also means the woman of 20% will lifetime without child.
Di Zhenwu is mentioned in the special interview, "The number of children of Fu schoolgirl Yo of 50 years old of above is of 0 do not exceed 3% , namely the woman that China has 97% has given birth to a child at least. "Second half sentence the interpreter becomes academic language is, the one child fertility-rate of Chinese woman is as high as 0.97. And the data that goes 7 years shows, one child fertility-rate uprights at 0.56-0.80. Di Zhenwu abandans the last few years to reflect the data that one child bears Yo age woman directly, however from woman of 50 years old of above all one's life birth condition, come indirect and computative at present one child fertility-rate of the woman, do not know he is appetent He Wei?
The one child fertility-rate that goes low continuously in recent years explains, china bears brunt at present the 90 birth apiration after already greatly under before the woman of acting border. Countrywide birth state investigated the basis 2017, the birth apiration of female of Chinese agriculture registered permanent residence only 1.91, the birth apiration of female of registered permanent residence of agriculture of and rather than only 1.46. Under photograph comparing, the birth apiration of Japan and Korea is as high as 2, although their actual fertility-rate parts only 1.46 with 1.22; The birth apiration of Chinese country under with the Japan with low celebrated fertility-rate and Korea.
And, farther city is changed, system of educational level promotion, provide for the aged is perfect, foster competition to turn white-hot wait to be able to continue squash birth apiration. As a result of long-term the exert a subtle influence on sb's character that one embryo changes policy, chinese city already bore one child to regard as acquiescent choice, the country is in dress to the city. This kind of phenomenon is peerless on human history. This also is meant, in China the circumstance that other place dresses issues one child fertility-rate and East Asia, summation fertility-rate future of China is met only lower.
In addition, bring about future to give the element that gives birth to population drop, disappear besides accumulation reach birth apiration to change brought fertility-rate to drop infirmly besides, be Yo age woman decrease considerably. From 2018 arrive 10 years of 2028, 22-30 year old woman of Yo age fastigium will be atrophic 37% . Drop considering fertility-rate again, give stranger mouth to fall in the hopeful inside 10 years 10 million the following. Graph 1 it is we are based on 2010 census data, announce an unripe population to reach each years in recent years the relative scale that sampling investigation age fastens fertility-rate, what give stranger opening to the past and future is computative and forecast, fertility-rate of hypothesis future summation rebounds in accumulation the meeting after the end regains natural level gradually.
Graph 1. The estimation that China gives stranger opening every year and forecast (1 million)
Di Zhenwu he is mentioned in the special interview, "This year (namely 2019) give stranger mouth to may be in 15 million fluctuation. " but according to us afore-mentioned forecasting, an unripe population 2019 can continue acute is decreased, decrease a meeting to be less than 2 million 2018, but still may exceed 1 million. And this just did not give those who give birth to population avalanche to begin.
Di Zhenwu claims further, "Fall for the circumstance of 1.6 in summation fertility-rate, chinese mouth gross will reach peak value 2028, begin to drop next. To this century end, chinese mouth amount is adjacent 1 billion. " strictly speaking, this is not population projection, be based on to look tall at present however the hypothesis that cannot reach, the distant view with completely visional scale. If fertility-rate drops to 1.2 stage by stage inside 5 years, that China population will come early to reached a peak 2021, to this century end total population will drop to 650 million, arrive to will drop to 330 million 2150.
The place before be like is narrated, the summation fertility-rate 2017, sampling investigation is 1.58, be born by bulletin population is computative for 1.63; The sampling investigation data 2018 was not announced, but give the summation fertility-rate with stranger computative mouth by bulletin for 1.46. And take out is comprehensive the accumulation effect that 2 child policy brings, fertility-rate of Chinese natural summation is less than 1.2, the long-term prep above that claims under Di Zhenwu far the level of 1.6.
Look in us, di Zhenwu passes serious overmeasure fertility-rate, will do one's utmost the seriousness of low fertility-rate of desalt China future, misdirect public opinion in order to continue the reform of protracted population policy. From the point of opinion on public affairs of one of be linked together, di Zhenwu is not only on population situation judgement be without academic credit, in population concept and policy proposal respect, also violate basic logic and common sense. Below the setting of the biggest challenge that exceeds low fertility-rate crisis to become Chinese future to be faced with, we believe, the history can remember what person has said what word.
