Times of an ancient name for China (Chinatimes.net.cn) report of Beijing of reporter Wang Xiaohui
Before before long, when Chinese people university Professor Di Zhenwu accepts media special report, say: "Comprehensive 10 years before 2 child policy is carried out, fertility-rate of countrywide average total should be in 1.65 the left and right sides. Comprehensive after two child policy is carried out, summation fertility-rate rises somewhat, exceed 1.7 above, did not achieve international academia to think ' low fertility-rate trap ' critical value (1.5 the following) . Did not achieve international academia to think ' low fertility-rate trap ' critical value (1.5 the following) ..
This one opinion on public affairs caused what bridge builds the expert inside the course of study such as chapter, Huang Wen politics to refute, intercurrent article expresses, tend as accumulation disappear, fertility-rate of our country summation will decline quickly 1.2 lower even levels, china drops authentic of low fertility-rate trap undoubted.
"Since 2 child policy is carried out, our country is serious little child the pattern with aged population maladjusted structure still does not have a change, population situation still very austere. " on April 16, yao Meixiong of economy of university of population expert, overseas Chinese and professor of financial college part-time job is accepted " times of an ancient name for China " when the reporter is interviewed, express likewise, comprehensive 2 child were not amounted to anticipate explained common people bears apiration very low already really, show our country already dropped small birth pit.
According to vital statistics standard, summation fertility-rate 2.1 for level of for generations replace, 2.1 it is low birth level below, 1.5 it is below very low-level, 1.3 it is below super- low-level, 1 it is dangerous level below.
Population structure is maladjusted
Population is little child aged it is the new challenge that 21 centuries mankind faces and the biggest challenge, this is brought to global development unprecedented change newly bureau.
"Current, the population that had not experiencinging on generation mankind history changes namely low fertility-rate and population are aged. Population of whole world close half has lived in fertility-rate level under the country under replace level. Among them, progress of our country society already entered new level, population has appeared new historic change trend, already entered little child change, aged society, the main contradiction that population grows already changed population to the structure by population amount. " Yao Meixiong says.
The data that publishs according to national statistic bureau shows, 2018 end, our country annual gives stranger opening 15.23 million person, human fertility is 10.94 ‰ , was born before population is compared one year to reduce 2 million person, drop extent exceeds 10% . And from 1978 up to now, our country human fertility is to achieve 40 years more new low.
And with reductive new student what quantitative photograph is contrary to is, our country old people mouth is increasing ceaselessly however. Statistical data shows, arrive from 2000 2018, 60 years old of senile population of our country that reach above from 126 million increase to 249 million, increase one times almost, hold total population proportion from 10.2% rise to 17.9% .
Decrease in this add between, our country is maladjusted little child aged population structure all the more is austere.
At this point, yao Meixiong gives out a group of such data: 2018, our country 0 -- population gross of 14 years old has 235 million person only, reduced 106 million person than 1982, hold total population proportion for 16.9% , greatly the 26% average levels under the world. In the meantime, our country reachs population of above old age 65 years old to already amounted to 167 million person 2018, hold total population proportion 11.9% , rose than 1982 7 percent, already exceeded world average level greatly. Predict, our country reachs place of population of above old age 65 years old to hold proportion, will exceed 14% 2022, enter the aged society.
According to vital statistics standard, 0-14 year old the proportion that population holds total population is in 20%-23% , it is normal to be; 18%-20% , for little child change; 15%-18% , for serious little child change; 15% the following, to exceed little child change.
And such population structure brings about what know clearly labor provides to decrease directly. According to reporter understanding, after population of age of our country working amounted to peak value 2011, begin to decrease continuously, 15-59 year old working age population came 7 years of 2018 2012 reduced 30.06 million person, specific gravity is 65.3% , dropped than 2011 4.5 percent.
"Among them 20-34 year old the main force that young labor is labour force, fresh troops, it is the innovation, main body that do poineering work and consumes, also be the key that the industry upgrades, cliff type will appear to decrease quickly after 2020, came 2022 2025, will decrease above of 11 million person every year completely, will reduce 104 million person than 2010 to 2030, decrease 32% . " Yao Meixiong expresses, since 2017 a few places of countrywide " grab battle of National People's Congress " as one falls, mirrorred predicament of our country population especially problem of labour force supply deficiency, each district anticipates young mouth will decrease quickly, with respect to the who strikes first prevails, lay in young able-bodied person for future. But this is the iceberg before population crisis erupts only one horn, real test will erupt after 2020 in the round.
Already dropped low fertility-rate trap
New student quantitative fall, comprehensive 2 child were not amounted to anticipate what already showed common people to bear apiration very low, the expert shows our country already dropped small birth pit.
Low fertility-rate trap, it is to once drop,point to fertility-rate certain level is the following, the change as a result of viewpoint of value, live pressure increases wait for many sided element joint action, fertility-rate can drop continuously, very difficult impossible even changeover.
In recent years, for slow down population aged pressure, increase labor supply, carried out early or late in the center of mix alone comprehensive 2 child policy. But, because bear ideal change, Yo the influence that cost promotion and lack encourage the element such as measure accordingly, mix from 2018 in last few years data looks, 2 child effect is far under anticipate, gave stranger opening 2018 15.23 million person reduces 2 million person than 2017, reduce 2.63 million person than 2016. As comprehensive 2 child the first year 2016 already is a baby boom year, also will be 21 centuries population is born peak value year.
In the meantime, 2018, was born 2017 population is total those who compare relevant section is medium calculate number little still 10.52 million person, far under each judgement before this.
What mirror relatively to it is, divide 2016, outside rebounding somewhat 2017, fertility-rate of summation of whole nation of nearly 20 the coming year all is in 1.4 the left and right sides, far under 2.1 replace level, greatly under the world the average level of 2.5. Even, the expert is forecasted, this numerical value will decline quickly 1.2 lower even levels.
Look from the experience of the history and international, summation fertility-rate 1.5 levels are a height sensitive cordon, once slip 1.5 the following, entered low fertility-rate pit, pick up very hard.
"Because our country fertility-rate is long under replace level, NPG trend is not reversible already turn, predict to was controlled 2024, our country population will appear negative growth, our country total population will be 2100 under 700 million person, will reduce an in part than now. " Yao Meixiong expresses, accompany prospective population to decrease quickly, population structure can not get optimizing, little child aged the meeting is more serious, this will weaken vigor of prospective our country, competition ability, actual strength and influence badly.
Population already was our country development is the biggest short board, also be the biggest challenge that development of 21 centuries our country faces.
Encourage bearing is the biggest supply side reform
Serious little child change and fast aged photograph overlay, population structure is serious already and screwy, future will present old people much, adolescent pours pyramid structure less, once brought think the population advantage that be proud is being lost gradually.
"Face current condition, we should make choose early break currently, the arm since Lu is cheered dry, instantly by comprehensive 2 child trend is encouraged in the round bear, release birth latent capacity further, promote population increase rate, compose builds relatively perfect population structure, with slow down population aged pressure, increase labor supply, offer necessary population and talent to prop up to realize Chinese dream, expand effectively inside need, provide new power to develop, defend population safety. " Yao Meixiong expresses, encourage in the round bearing is the biggest supply side reform, also be major demand side reform, it is current the urgentest reform.
At this point, yao Meixiong suggests, above all, should encourage bear place important schedule to undertake study deploy as soon as possible.
Population problem already bad news is not gotten, procrastinate not to rise, if do not adopt strong step to give,turn round, population structure will further twist, little child change, aged more will serious. The enough of vital statistics data of current our country indicates the austere gender of situation of our country population, enough is propped up start encourage birth decision-making demand in the round, already need not await 2020 data of census of the 7th whole nation. Early encourage bear, early active, yue Chi is encouraged, more passive, cost is bigger. Encourage birth result to be in in contemporary, benefit a thousand years, will encourage as early as possible in the center of the proposal bear it is new basic national policy certainly.
Next, establish new population to develop strategic concept. Development of our country population already entered new development level, want to establish new population concept. Do away with fertility-rate lower the thinking that better, population has jumped over lesser, establish population especially the idea that young is the most valuable resource. Enter new era, innovation is the first motive force that leads development, the talent is the first productivity, the first resource, the foundation of talent origin is population; Want to achieve comprehensive progress of the person, aggrandizement manpower resource is devoted, improve population quality in the round.
In the meantime, perfect population law laws and regulations. Development of our country population already entered new level, should change " population and family planning law " for " population develops a way " . Abolish instantly social alimony, legislation protects fetal life right, legislation prohibits sexual discrimination, protect rights and interests of woman obtain employment. Make stimulative population can develop new population to administer assessment mechanism continuously.
Besides, want compose to build new personality mouth to develop policy system, include national core to develop the strategy promotion population increase rate. In the meantime, the system of mechanism of reproduction of new personality mouth that compose builds a family to raise child and country to raise child photograph to be united in wedlock, increase finance support, the respect waits in taxation, obtain employment, education, medical treatment, housing, social security cogent reduce the burden that fosters a family, aggrandizement encourages birth public service, let common people be willing to give birth to the child, raise have the child.
For instance, female worker the maternity leave that take salary is lengthened to 300 days, the spouse accompanies maternity leave to lengthen to 30 days, the burden that increases to unit of choose and employ persons gives reduce duty or capital allowance accordingly; Inspect preschool education synonymous Wu education, raise finance considerably the devoted strength to preschool education, also include finance to make offerings to pay wages or salaries of teacher of nursery school of run by the local people, child teacher work out and pay dress to elementary school teacher, rise to holding in the palm young give aid to; To domestic Yo the taxation derate that waits for defray is touched buckle, proper to bearing 2 child and above family to extend children fosters allowance to wait.
