Going bankrupt is we leave the one and only way of the crisis
-- how to dissolve debt crisis?
1997 the crisis, zhu Zuo ji chose to go bankrupt namely, come off sentry duty again the method of obtain employment, helped us cast off financial crisis.
Since big 2008 crisis, we reject to let business failure all the time, make a worker unemployed, always adopt the way that puts watermark paper money to come a Qing Dynasty of protracted economy, avoid the insolvency of the enterprise, result problem is more and more serious.
The debt crisis of small company and borrow without add of repayment of capital -- still do not have loan when small company, we do to be borrowed without add of repayment of capital, continue to borrow money namely, do not need repayment of capital, avoided the loan break a contact of small company temporarily, but debt and interest burden did not decrease, such continueing go down, the loan that is pressed on small company head and interest are heavier and heavier. This is take temporary solution not effect a permanent cure, if do not think method helps small company fall loan interest, stop plan interest even, very much small company has blind lane only finally, this also is small company more and more difficult, civilian battalion invests descendent reason.
Hypothesis small company borrows money 20 trillion yuan, the accrual of 10% , it is 2 trillion yuan accrual a year, accrual is about to turn over times after 7 years, if consider compound interest, more terrible.
What make small company so painful with its is living, bear heavy debt and interest, be forced finally must go borrowing folk usurious, still be inferior to letting them go bankrupt, help them solve emergence to come. A lot of a lot small proprietor of an enterprises bore heavy debt and interest, be moment saves them.
2018 borrow without add of repayment of capital, it is a take temporary solution not the expedient of the effect a permanent cure, still be inferior to allowing to stop plan breath to perhaps go bankrupt liquidation.
{! - - PGC_COLUMN- - }Crisis of credit card debt and modification criminal law, raise dot having punishment to go to 50 thousand yuan -- the credit card exceed the time limit that faces more than 100 billion yuan, if we do not revise criminal law, reckon more than 1 million person can be grabbed to be imprisoned, because 50 thousand yuan credit card borrows money,be about to be sentenced. Of credit card punish ceasing is year change 18% , namely everyday of ten thousand and five punish breath. Do not mean be about to break up to 4 years, if be exceed the time limit of 100 billion yuan of credit card, 200 billion yuan are after 4 years. Such going down, the exceed the time limit of a lot of credit card person can't bear heavy burden, 714 tall artillery piece are silk is borrowing cash to borrow will raise card, they not hesitate the short term loan that bears the interest of 10 times, otherwise credit card is met exceed the time limit.
If not be a country,the starting point that increases credit card exceed the time limit is 50 thousand yuan, reckon more than 1 million person wants to go in. But the person that still a lot of exceed 50 thousand yuan credit card exceed the time limit continues to suffer credit card high specified number to punish the torment of breath, lost freedom even.
China has more than 10 million person to become Laolai, this number is breathtaking.
Crisis of local government debt and debt displacement -- we pass debt displacement, help local government temporary debus heavy debt load, reduced interest burden, extended reimbursement deadline. For instance 2019 the debt of more than 10 trillion yuan of hair first quarter is such. Otherwise, a lot of local government, appear on the market company, state-owned company, estate company can die dish. Actually, this is a dangerous signal, but a lot of people regard this as instead profit is good will unscramble.
If we 2019 the debt that does not send more than 10 trillion yuan first quarter, what do not release more than 8.2 trillion yuan is new add social financing, a lot of local government and appear on the market company, estate company, state-owned company can be done not have tomorrow, no less than the meeting is vivid going to. This also is the reason that 10 thousand divisions shout subsist. Huge money is for deep-set debt - the local government of deflationary lair, appear on the market company, state-owned company and estate. We to local government, had made debt replacement a few times.
Appear on the market crisis of company stock impawn and man-made ox city -- the stock market man-made since first quarter is arrogant 2019 city, appear on the market to save namely company, especially those are immersed in stock impawn crisis appear on the market company and stockjobber.
The debt crisis of the bank and capital gold are additional, send sub debt, financial supply side is reformed -- big banking company buys small banking company, development division is achieved board, encourage equity investment.
The debt crisis of estate and go does stock move -- ?
The debt crisis of state-owned company and reform of economic supply side -- next bummer battalion enterprises are upper reaches state-owned company give sb a shot in the arm.
The debt crisis of P2P and arrest a person, shut -- ?
Folk is usurious with dispute over obligation, dozen black except evil -- economic dispute evolves upgrade to contradict for the society.
Recent in civilian cast, letter country is installed in, tai He, the incident such as rich force, how does follow-up meeting evolve?
Estimation still can have thunderstorm of more ground of debt break a contact to be shown, how should we do?
2020 and became new reimbursement fastigium 2021.
China goes bankrupt without the individual law, although have business failure way, financial orgnaization goes bankrupt law, but enter truly those who go bankrupt is very little, basically be afraid society stability and unemployment.
We take the way that puts watermark paper money then, adopt protracted tactics, adopt the measure of the rescue sb from a siege that decide a dot, the result is kept constantly on the run, debt crisis has add without decrease.
2019 first quarter, social lever achieves 247% histories new tall, debt dimensions predicts to exceed 250 trillion yuan.
If be calculated according to the accrual of 5% , accrual exceeds 12.5 trillion yuan, it is new add GDP 200% much still.
If be calculated according to the interest rate of 8% , accrual exceeds 20 trillion yuan, it is new add GDP 300% much still.
Cost of borrow or lend money of company of 100 strong estate exceeds current some 24% , can meet of pressure big.
Constant is big such estate company, bill financing cost also is as high as 20% to control.
Folk crosses bridge financing popularly, monthly interest 9% , year change 108% .
Popular cash is borrowed, for instance 714 tall artillery piece, year change accrual to exceed 1000% .
A lot of small the accrual that consumes loan exceeds 30% .
The accrual of short-term loan capital of rural popularity exceeds 36% .
Because channel of a lot of financing is sealed to block up, borrow return newly old more and more difficult, cost is higher and higher, heavy debt capital and accrual, be just like an only strange animal, collapsed a lot of entrepreneur, had begun to spread to big company now, for instance in letter country is installed, in civilian join such civilian camp gigantic without bully.
Like was just like a person to owe credit card, accrual 18% , break up 4 years, as a result heavy interest burden had collapsed the person of credit card, they are torn open east the wall fills on the west wall, the result still fills this hole without method, because accrual and capital burden are too heavy.
Only way terminates an agreement namely, go bankrupt liquidation, end this debt trap.
Without destruction there can be no construction. Do not absolutely refuse to to be born.
2019 first quarter, hypostatic economy lever is achieved piece new tall. Add social financing newly to also be achieved those who give 8.2 trillion yuan is new tall, hair debt exceeds 10 trillion yuan first quarter, estimation also is unprecedented.
Stock market rises and the RMB appreciates two red flags that become stable market to anticipate.
Capital construction and real estate become two hatchet man that promote economy to go up again.
Next, house price predicts to also can be achieved afresh piece new tall, if we do not control monetary master valve.
The problem is, I % people stock price, estate value, debt dimensions, after lever pushed new Gao Zhi, how do we do?
Have no way to back down, arrive more from the back more troublesome, I do not know, ride on the tiger, how should we come down?
Sent an article yesterday " unscramble correctly first quarter economic data -- economy continues in be issued to lower levels " , do not survive a few hours. Dispatch chapter is worse and worse recently, the Friedman a lot of understanding to freedom are very abstruse, " Friedman maxim collect " be worth to look well.
First quarter economic data backside, be be fond of is care, my anxious more a few.
We had realised structural sex, system sex problem, but we do not have find a way out as before.
Going bankrupt is the one and only way that we walk out of the crisis.
Without destruction there can be no construction. Do not absolutely refuse to to be born.
Superior bad discard, metabolic, we should respect market rule.
Long pull infrangible consequence, already more and more serious.
