A pull 3 this world repeatedly, the market cheers one piece. Patristic Zhao Dan Yang was in illicit collect this year in Feburary in letter negotiable securities issued him successfully to return to A master piece " the heart of a newborn baby " , already gained profit at present quite abundant. This afternoon after closing quotation, he also is in in the view that the client communication that letter negotiable securities holds expressed him in the meeting, his topic is very specific, namely " bovine city already open " , we arrange specific viewpoint as follows:
1, 2020 around, chinese economy gross will exceed the United States. China has 800 million middle class, be equivalent to the United States 300 million add Europe 300 million 200 million what add Japan, the bibcock of Chinese some industry will be world bibcock. At the appointed time resource will be centered to China, hong Kong, Shanghai will replace new York, London to become new global banking center.
2, reform ecbolic ox city. 18 big since, commercialize, the reform of economic system and legal system is being advanced steadily, be worth to expect.
3, look on the history, a it is to go 18 years to come appraise value is the cheapest. Shanghai deep 300PE has 9 only times, PB has 1.3 only times, than petty gain is being returned when 1000 bits. The history can repeat!
4, 10 years period national debt interest rate is close to historical perch, future is long-term interest rate is sure be issued to lower levels.
5, bovine city has climate, favourable geographical position, support of the people to be propped up jointly. Climate -- be in high speed of society of the mankind below Internet drive to send exhibition period currently; Favourable geographical position -- expression of the China in system of global old economy is best; Person and -- 18 big market drive and legal system.
The emphasis that Bencihui views is in query link, it is interlocution essentials below:
Ask: Shanghai is deep 300 appraise cost is really low, but the forestall industry that eliminate underestimates a cost, appraise cost is not low also, medicine appraise value has 30 multiple.
Zhao: But the company that we still can buy a batch of petty gain. For instance railroad of airport of electric power of 600028 China petrifaction, 600900 the Yangtse River, 600009 Shanghai, 601006 big the Qin Dynasty.
With exemple of melt into of 600028 China stone, rate of share out bonus is not low, and the growth that has 10% every year, if you regard him as a bond, be worth investment very much. Those 27 petrochemical in was being bought, when what reason is 6 is he bought?
Medicine appraise cost is really high, we value this industry for a long time.
Ask: How does look upon do poineering work board are overmeasure value and Shanghai deep of 300 underestimate a cost?
Zhao: Do poineering work board I do not understand, I do not have the thing that does not know to the law is judged and be evaluated, I think the opportunity is in Shanghai deep 300.
Ask: Before some year your contest takes the chance that takes lunch in all with Buffett, do this give you what help to bring on investment?
Zhao: On investment some baffle before, especially clear 2008 after the heart of dish of a newborn baby, if can from Ba Fei Tenalide arrives a few experience, still comparative worthiness.
The first question that I ask at that time is what kind of company just be good company, of forestall good, is what still have layer of a good management good? Of course it is best that everybody knows both has both, the problem depends on, the world is faulty.
Buffett says, coke Cola had made a lot of mistakes in the past, there was good governor later, became great company.
His means says, the business of forestall is better. For example Maotai and 10 thousand divisions, maotai is forestall sex, of course its management layer is very pretty good also, 10 thousand divisions have a good administrative group, but real estate is emulative industry. If Maotai encounters a better administrative group, will have better performance.
Again for example, we hold some 002186 Quan Jude, with its for the brand, the market prise of 5 billion was underestimated. Mix plus IDG China live the hotel becomes a shareholder, and accredited two director that have industrial management experience, this has very big stimulative effect to its group construction. We intervene when avian flu is serious first half of the year this year, what time place also chooses is pretty good.
Ask: Does to current assets configuration have He Jian to discuss?
Zhao: Period of interest rate be issued to lower levels, can configure a few bond, of course it is good that accrual does not have a stock.
Inside the stock, overmeasure is worth board piece very tall to the choice requirement of the company.
Hold cash is not good choice in the near future.
Ask: Current society interest rate is not low, interest rate of fiducial, P2P is not low, so how can be capital planted in this circumstance indelicacy to the stock market?
Zhao: We see prospective interest rate whether can drop only. Want to protect hypostatic interest rate to must drop, produced already aid to be over otherwise, adverse to country and society.
Current interest rate really not low, but when American interest rate was as high as 20% 1983, who can think of later the negative interest rate of period of case Lin Sipan? How many person is there to you can expect the low interest rate later again when was Chinese usury led 1996?
Ask: Do you think Shanghai harbor connects pair of ox city what to effect there is?
Zhao: Shanghai harbor is connected is only technical problem, cannot have what effect. The prime cause of bovine city is appraise value petty gain. Resemble Buffett was bought in Hong Kong 2003 in oil, the PB of 0.8 times, hong Kong went up very quickly later one times, prime cause still was underestimated.
Ask: How is look upon burgeoning industry? Does Alibaba appear on the market how do you visit belong to the same organization?
Zhao: Burgeoning industry for instance Alibaba, I do not understand, also won't buy. But I hope to have more such company appears, want to be able to be benefited from which only can.
In those days mine of California exploitation gold, of Mai Tiegao, sell water, also can gain money.
Ask: How does house price look? Is economy added fast how to look?
Zhao: Go a few years, I stayed two years in new York, lived one year in Singapore. I think the house price of Beijing rises even one times, because Chinese town is changed,had not ended. Of course, this industry has reached peak. Resemble the 3rd billow of bovine city (advocate rise billow) had ended, can you say the 5th billow was done not have?
No matter economy is added fast how to change, economy is remained up.
Ask: Does local government debt have He Ying to ring to bovine city?
Zhao: Chinese national debt, increase local government debt, increase state-owned company debt, the proportion that altogether holds economic gross compares the United States, Japan slightly low. The question is not big, because of us economy still is going up. But Japan is no good, japan is not returned went up, he can make inflationary repay a debt only. This throws one Jiao to do not have a thing like the youth, old people throws one Jiao question big.
Ask: How does the state-owend enterprise reform you to look?
Zhao: Forestall adds good processing texture, be best mark. The state-owend enterprise is developing to this direction.
In the state-owend enterprise, iron and steel produce can superfluous industry to look weak, although they have fine processing structure, what also cannot return the past is brilliant.
Ask: If have,see empty factor, do you think to you can be in what respect?
Zhao: I hope to did not come, chinese politics can be done maintain stabilize continuously.
Ask: How look upon agriculture, resource, war industry, liquor these a few industries?
Zhao: The product that agricultural height competes is no good, want to seek the thing that others cannot do.
Resource kind have rare be short of a gender, this kind of commodity still looks up.
I do not know war industry, this processing structure is bad, I am not bought.
Liquor is forestall kind, wanting the middle class only is to suffer numerous, value.
Ask: Do you part to value investor, trend investor and adventurer how look upon? To low buy sell high how judge?
Zhao: I am value investor, other two I do not understand, invaluably.
A bottle of water, here sells, 10 sell outside, you can be bought here, take go selling there. If where you know,sell 100, you are afraid meeting the home in go off with sold. Low buy the core that sells high to depend on assessing its intrinsic value, it is qualitative that this is evaluated, not be mensurable.
Ask: Are you apt concentration invests or invest dispersedly?
Zhao: Wait for limitation as a result of energy, ability, capital, we look only 10 come a stock. And we also are not willing our group is too giant, of course, if have the word of need,should not talk additionally.
Ask: How industry of health of look upon medical treatment? How industry of invest in provide for the aged?
Zhao: As a result of the reason with aged population, medicine is entered quicken cycle.
Industry of provide for the aged has perspective very much, but the key should pick pair of way, and return rate may not is good.
Ask: The industry that underestimates a cost is forestall industry, be like a bank, how look upon?
Zhao: We see bank of Chinese petrifaction, transportation is being received change, undertake system of ownership is reformed mixture. Believe they did not stop initiation steady growth, the grandiose waste previously can decrease after reform, profit will be accordingly better.
Banking profit or have drop, but want economy only up can.
Ask: Bonus of our country population has disappeared gradually, what is the extra dividend with prospective the biggest government?
Zhao: Population bonus disappears is a big question, it is good to should be stabilized only, the extra dividend with the biggest future is reform.
Ask: Beautiful couplet store be about to enter add breath cycle, this pair of US stocks, A He Ying rings?
Zhao: The concern is not big.
