You feel to investing a stock on this thing, it is those hour attention share price change, the person that is staring at K line attempt to look to closing quotation fix eyes on from open quotation everyday is happier, or are those annual just now and then is the person that sees closing quotation value 9 times happier?
Say a bit more professionally, is you feel to become a short-term and congenial customer more are joy or a long-term investor happier? It is clear to should be told this truth, do not need the psychological theory with complex have the aid of and tool, need to come from mathematical angle purely only illuminate can.
My uncle and aunty, emeritus be in the home several years, their son is stemmed from filial, help them dismiss dull days, each gave two old people 100 thousand money fry. To give up parents is opposite the apprehension of deficit, the son gives beforehand 2 often had hit precautionary needle " pa, Mom, if earned,should give you 2 often subsidize family expenses, compensate calculate me, you must not have psychological responsibility 2 times. You must not have psychological responsibility 2 times..
Great difference of 2 old daily show it may be said, I that uncle sits result is wonderful, everyday from in the morning 9:30 open quotation sit to afternoon 3:00 closing quotation, operate often almost everyday, call it by a good name of " cast high low suck, earn a money that buy food. " and I that aunty, want busy move to buy dish to cook everyday take care of old fogey, what do not read account at ordinary times is fluctuant, holding the share that when that opens an account only, buys in the arms all the year round. Came down one year last year, aunty account market prise became much 20 thousand, the uncle earned 1 only 1000.
Spend the New Year kin meets, the uncle takes aunty to say for fun, "I so hard, do not have gain money unexpectedly, your what without giving thought to instead earn is reliable, really foolish the person has foolish blessing. " other people listened is to burst out laughing, still feel the word of my uncle is reasonable. I am happy also at that time, if they know knowledge of statistic of a bit probability,the heart thinks, idea so won't innocent.
Suppose: The pay rate that combination of investment of a person achieves is expected to compare treasury tall 15% , error rate of the current year (Error Rate, namely the fluctuation that we say) be 10% . This states 100 example method is medium, be expected to about 68 fall in 15% above quota pay rate is added reduce the scope of 10% inside, namely 5% go to 25% . This also expresses to 95 example method can fall in – 5% to 35% between.
Additional knowledge: On actual application, often consider a group of data to have approximate the probability distribution at normal school. If its hypothesis is correct, make an appointment with 68.3% numerical value to distributing to there is the range in a standard deviation in distance average, about 95.4% numerical value distributing to there is the range in 2 standard deviations in distance average, and about 99.7% numerical value distributing to there is the range in 3 standard deviations in distance average. Call " 68-95-99.7 law " or " experience law " .
According to afore-mentioned normal state curves, interval is in (μ - σ , μ + σ ) the area inside is 68.27% , the expectation here is worth μ =15% , standard deviation hopes =10% of case Ma σ . If that wants to make money, be about to make normal state curve distributings at be more than the interval of 0, because of μ - 1.5 σ =0 just has a deficit namely the critical point of money, the basis is in interval (μ - 1.5 σ , μ + 1.5 σ ) the area inside is 86%* about. Knowing normal school to pursue again is symmetrical graph, have a deficit namely money probability = (100%-86% ) / 2=7% , conversely, the 1-7%=93% of profitable probability.
(* explains: The numerical value of 86% can use here Excel computation, the value of NORMSDIST(1.5) is subtractive NORMSDIST(-1.5) , eventuate 0.866386)
Pay rate is 15% , fluctuation (or uncertainty) for annual 10% , after conversion, any probability that make money one year are 93% . But will look from narrower time measure, the probability of money of any one second gain has 50.02% only, following watches are shown:
Inside very narrow time measure, probability earning compensate almost balance. The person suffers in the mood below, one have a loss, once screen jumps out green word, he aching unceasingly. When making money, he feels invigoration, but the painful degree when be out of pocket of happy degree be not a patch on.
Hypothesis watchs 4 hours one day, everyday he can have 240*50.17%=120 minute buoyant, 240-120=120 minute unpleasantness. In a year, joy of half the time, half the time is aching.
Assume a month just watchs the show that invests combination. Because the month of 67% makes money, so happy frequency has 12*67%=8 second, a year of only aching 12-8=4 second.
If watch the show that invests combination every year only, so in survive inside time of 20 years, he will experience 20*93%=19 second surprise, only unpleasantness!
Such, we are not fathomless why my uncle and aunty are in the expression of a sea go on an expedition was widely divergent. A frequency because of attention is low, suffer noise the impact is little, undesirable sentiment is then little, make wrong and decision-making possibility thereby low, nature of state of mind is so good. One seeks short-term increase, a bit a sign of disturbance or trouble is chased after go up kill drop, often operation brings a miscarriage of justice naturally, then deficient money is mixed make money basic break even.
From this, we get such verdict not hard:
Too pay close attention short-term person instead invests easily suffer a defeat, because they experience a chain of anguish, on the mood dog-tired.
No matter how people says, what they experience is painful, what be experienced without method is cheerful and quits, that meeting causes the deficit on the mood.
There is a name on psychology -- loss avoid. Those who point to is the earnings that people faces same amount and caustic miss the opportunity, think the loss makes them be borne hard more. The negative effectiveness that commensurate loss brings is commensurate accrual 2.5 times of effectiveness.
The loss detests the risk preference that reflected people is not consistent, what should involve is accrual when, people performance is detested for the risk; What should involve is caustic miss the opportunity, people criterion expression is sought for the risk. Then, make more easily those who pay no attention to a gender is decision-making.
If you consider happy investment, the person that the carry out that makes a long-term investment since today goes.
Textual link: Http://www.jianshu.com/p/eb11bb933e40
