Civil / Long Xiaolin
On May 6, field of A stock market encounters black on Monday. Card index falls greatly on 5.58% , deep card is become point to drop greatly 7.56% , in pairs is achieved recently 3 years since the biggest drop. Hereat at the same time, the exchange rate of RMB and dollar also appeared that day acuteness wave motion, among them exchange rate of RMB of add of off shore dollar goes up greatly (the RMB devalues) 390 are nodded, dish medium the most rising 900 bits more adjacent, achieve since January 9 highest. Why when the RMB devalues considerably, the stock market also drops greatly accordingly, what do this have to concern among them?Although the stock market belongs to two different markets with the cent that collect city, look be like connection not quite, but the exchange rate that should compare index of grail of nearly 9 years of stocks to walk along situation and dollar add RMB only goes situation is OK discovery, of the stock market go up drop not only with the RMB appreciate devalue have connection, and connection looks very big still. Next graphs to go up the K line of card index and exchange rate of dollar add RMB takes situation picture (week K line) :
From on the graph can see, card index is mixed on of dollar and RMB exchange rate go situation present reverse trend roughly, the end will see December last year than index of as above card, be in all the time almost before this drop, after this begins the journey that rise. And exchange rate of dollar add RMB will see a top in November last year, going up all the time almost before this, after this appeared one drops quickly. Recently 3 weeks two, while card index begins to drop on, exchange rate of dollar add RMB also began to rise.
Because exchange rate of dollar add RMB rises to represent a RMB to devalue to the dollar, represent conversely appreciate, this can show the RMB devalues to the stock market rise adverse, the RMB appreciates to rise to the stock market advantageous. Why can both have such concern?
Above all, from capital market point of view for, the RMB appreciates be helpful for attracting foreign capital to flow into. Capital has the sex that pursue interest, what asset can make money what to buy, if the RMB is right dollar or other revaluation, can attract international capital to add apparently manage RMB capital fund. After be being entered when foreign capital, impossible whats do not work, should buy for certain a few can the asset of appreciation. Say originally to those hot line endowment nevertheless, those who like to do is speed goes out quickly, like the stock so the asset solicit comments with such higher liquidity adds up to appetite. The open rate plus field of A stock market is higher and higher, the stock of field of stock market of A of foreign capital buying and selling already obstacle of it doesn't matter, so more convenient foreign capital invests Chinese stock market. The RMB appreciates brought foreign capital is flowed into increase, can be gone to by drainage partly the stock market, and the capital increase of the stock market is helpful for driving the stock market to rise apparently.
Actually not only the RMB appreciates to rise to the stock market advantageous, the stock market rises to appreciate to people as much advantageous. Because the stock market rises to also can attract more foreign capital to come,field of A stock market invests, and the demand that foreign capital flows into grow in quantity to be able to build didymous RMB increases, drive a RMB to appreciate thereby.
Next, from macroscopical economy angle for, of the RMB appreciating is the report that our country economy has behaved probably, because only economy behaves nice gift to be helpful for a RMB appreciating, last year for instance our country GDP is added fast below the setting that glides continuously, the RMB also is to appear to devalue continuously, and as in recent years GDP adds fast look forward to first quarter firm, the RMB also was greeted appreciate. Economy has been behaved, form to the RMB prop up, to the stock market as much such. Because only economy has been behaved, appear on the market company ability is better make money, appear on the market the company can be better make money, stock price gift is nicer those who rise. Will look from this, of the RMB appreciate with the stock market rise have certain and synchronous sex.
Since of RMB exchange rate those who take situation and stock market go situation have so become a concern, does that say to want those who see RMB exchange rate to go only situation go with respect to what can you judge the stock market situation? Or from the stock market go situation go with respect to what can you judge RMB exchange rate situation?
If look only from two angle of upper part, really OK so do, want RMB exchange rate and stock market to one is moved first only, go with respect to what can sentence another beforehand from this situation. Drop to devalue with RMB synchronism in the stock market for instance period, if the stock market takes the lead in look forward to is firm rebound, devalue with respect to adumbrative RMB probably be about to end, or the RMB takes the lead in appreciating, may adumbrative stock market drops be about to end.
Nevertheless, affecting the stock market and RMB exchange rate to take situation factor cannot be identical. For instance for the angle from monetary policy, constrictive monetary policy is helpful for a RMB appreciating, but go against the stock market however rise, because constrictive monetary policy means the Central Bank to be able to decrease to the supply of fundamental money, in demand next changeless RMBs are met incline to is worth at rising, but the stock market is the market that capital of a need drives however, the money supplies decreasing is to drawing stock market blood apparently, go against the stock market naturally to rise.
Altogether, it is advantageous that the RMB appreciates to rise to the stock market on certain level, but not be to say the RMB wants to appreciate only, the stock market can rise. So of RMB exchange rate and stock market go situation can keep synchronous inside a paragraph of period probably, impossible also however complete synchronism.
