My steely dispatch: On May 8, concussion of market of domestic steel products slants weak, square unburnt brick of Tang Shan general leaves factory drop 20 newspapers 3580. Suffer futures to drop influence, spot market state of mind not beautiful, the near future clinchs a deal the volume rises and fall bigger, and the market arrives resource grow in quantity, manufacturer shipment pressure is increased, the price becomes loose somewhat now.
8 days, black fastens futures to go generally weak, coke one branch alone beautiful. That day, price of closing quotation of period snail brunt 3731, still be in MA5 lower part, DIF and DEA double cross are down, 3 lines are located in RSI index between 43-56, be in the course below cloth forest belt to move, technical index hasten is at present weak, message face also is propped up without interest good news, period snail or slant to move infirmly.
8 days, 3 building steel products of domestic produce company factory price to keep balance.
Merchandise on hand of ▼ rolled steel
Building steel products: Shock of price of building materials of 8 days of home slants weak, clinch a deal shrink quantity. At present steel of mainstream city whorl all valence signs up for 4250 yuan / ton, relatively drop yesterday 11 yuan / ton; Although area of this mountain of week the Tang Dynasty is specific,steelworks is restricted to produce because of environmental protection begin the overhaul, but finite to building materials influence quantity, as Hua Dong individual steelworks resumes production, supply will still maintain add state, later period of partial Jiangsu resource reachs concentration Hangzhou and circumjacent market. On the whole, suffer southern rainfall to affect demand to have turn weak evidence, tall supply pressure to will be shown gradually, price of building materials of predicting tomorrow home keeps current of be issued to lower levels as before.
Hot-rolling board coils: Weak be issued to lower levels of hasten of price of 8 days of hot-rolling, market whole clinchs a deal continue hasten is weak, resource of place favour market slants little, integral pressure shows without complete system, what reflect because of this price is not apparent. Look from steelworks angle, the possibility that short-term yield falls is inferior, order steelworks did not have pressure May, the thought that reduces an amount actively is less. Be restricted to produce a circumstance to look with respect to China north area, partial steelworks has appeared be restricted to produce case, but the way that wastes steel through adding, bring about integral crop to drop degree is finite. Look from downstream angle, the industry can have part of 6-7 month hot-rolling to be answered certainly retreat, see pressure meet from current condition step up, look at this point, short-term value still has prop up certainly, but long-term and character or occurrence inflection point.
Cold rolling board coils: Now countrywide cold rolling board roll spot price is shown continuously weak force moves, the whole nation all valence 4452 yuan / ton, day trades to drop on annulus comparing 5 yuan / ton, whole of prices of countrywide cold rolling appears to lose continuously now situation move, whole clinchs a deal weaker. Look from area, area of and other places of Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin is small reduce 10 yuan / ton, chengdu area reduces 40 yuan / ton. Face of market state of mind looks, black fastens futures to last to drop now, narrow cut of raw material hot-rolling goes weak, cold rolling business door get shipment not raw material of free follow closely is little fall after a rise; Look from current and main area, trafficker of major cold rolling still holds discretion to slant to prices of near future cold rolling pessimism, but interpose supports at cost face short-term considerably probability of fall after a rise is small, cold rolling of predicting tomorrow whole nation loses continuously firm dish whole give priority to.
In thick board: In 8 days of home thick board dimension of market price case is certain, countrywide 20mm general board all valence 4144 yuan / ton, relatively yesterday all valence dimension is certain. Market respect, getting black is the influence with futures concussion weak hasten, businessman state of mind props up inadequacy, much discretion is wait-and-see, the market clinchs a deal expression owes beautiful. Steelworks respect, the whole nation is at present medium thick board crop already was achieved inside year new tall, plan crop still had small to increase in May, pressure of later period supply or will highlight. Inventory suffers holiday influence to small are accumulated, market share norms still is in short supply, have to the price prop up certainly. Will integratedly look, predict short-term inside in the whole nation thick board the price will be given priority to with exalted concussion.
Spot market of ▼ raw material
Iron ore: Night standing yesterday connects the influence of be issued to lower levels of concussion of iron brunt agreement, this morning quote of resource of part of trafficker of iron ore of China north area has yesterday relatively reduce, among them mainstream of pink of Tang Shan PB quotes 685 yuan / ton, relatively reduce 15 yuan yesterday / ton; Super- special powdery mainstream quotes 605 yuan / ton, relatively hold yesterday firm. Partial trafficker quote is relatively active, to reduce the risk that manage money, shipment desire is stronger; Afternoon dish face concussion be issued to lower levels, the market hands in the jerk that send work to be reduced further, the market clinchs a deal encounter cold. Steelworks respect, partial area suffers the effect of environmental protection policy, bad news of iron ore day drops somewhat, fluctuation of market of together with near future is bigger, purchase tend careful, ask dish enthusiasm is not tall, need in order to press to purchase give priority to.
Coke: Market of 8 days of coke slants strong move. Shanxi, heibei is carried go up quantity of anxious look forward to increases, a few trafficker and steelworks are accepted, other area follows carry wish intense. Ministry of environmental protection of near future zoology points out Shanxi area environmental protection often, arrange an issue, sequel fears corresponding environmental protection is restricted to produce policy to roll out; One part steelworks already pressed Tang Shan area the requirement begins to be restricted to produce stage by stage, blast furnace overhauls an amount to continue to increase; Began a net to pass recently " Xuzhou stops be restricted to produce " file, xuzhou anxious look forward to will be restricted to produce an in part, at present each big anxious look forward to has not receive this hearsay to inform temporarily; Specific my net releases real time newlier.
Abandon steel: Market of useless now steel rises drop each other shows, rise in price north of steelworks collect China, China in area, go up a 20-100 yuan / ton, cheapen steelworks is in the area such as Shandong, Hua Na centrally, drop a 10-50 yuan / ton. Option market continues now low, become a useful person the value is little drop, useless steel market fears dropping aggravate of state of mind, active deliver goods, steelworks arrives increase in succession, partial steelworks appears the circumstance that approach a car, demand a low price of steelworks take advantage of an opportunity. Useless steel trafficker receives money relatively careful also, much go out quickly with speed give priority to. It is busy season of rolled steel demand at present, steelworks has particular demand to abandoning steel, certain price of most steelworks option is wait-and-see, short-term steelworks all arrives according to oneself the circumstance adjusts useless steel price. Market of predicting tomorrow useless steel is firm in slant weak.
Market of ▼ rolled steel is forecasted
Supply end: Mysteel dogs survey, since May stop production of Tang Shan accumulative total 15 blast furnace, add up to affects day all molten iron measures thirty-five thousand five hundred tons. Blast furnace of current Tang Shan is produced can utilization rate is 74.53% , relatively decrease before the section 6.08% . Steel of whorl of steelworks of 139 building materials of countrywide is produced last week can utilization rate 80.71% , wire is produced can utilization rate 68.28% , all achieve inside year new tall.
In light of whole, predict steely May crop still moves in perch, because of Tang Shan environmental protection of steelworks of and other places is restricted to produce, outspread strength may put delay apparently.
Demand end: According to Mysteel survey, since section hind day of building materials of trafficker of 237 mainstreams of countrywide all clinchs a deal measure 200 thousand tons of above, still be in level of the half moon below April. Space of increment of demand of rolled steel of predicting later period is limited, once much wet of later period high temperature enrages advent, demand has weak possibility.
Raw material: Our country imported iron ore in April 80.77 million tons, annulus comparing drops 6.5% , drop compared to the same period 2.6% , for should contracting supportive mine price goes strong. Nevertheless, at present iron ore of Australia, Brazil delivers goods the quantity also is picking up stage by stage, iron ore supply and demand all has increase, performance of this week mine price is strong. Ministry of environmental protection of near future zoology points out Shanxi area environmental protection often, arrange an issue, sequel fears corresponding environmental protection is restricted to produce policy to roll out, coke is firm in slant strong.
In light of macroscopical face, at present vivid force increases inside our country, but still need vigilance to be on guard exterior risk. Export of foreign trade of 1-4 month our country increased 5.7% 2019, add fast put delay somewhat, global economy anabiosises fatigued and weak use extrude opening. In light of main area, steel city supply and demand balances pattern to had be notted break infirmly, but market state of mind not beautiful, short-term steel price or slant weak concussion.
Be bullish! In May billet or still have rise space
"The overhaul is wet " ring down the curtain pelter of steelworks overhaul measure
