1.Main event:
Shanxi makes exposure of problem of library of mud of bare of incident of leak of filtrate of library of mud of bare of and other places of mouth, filial piety justice, local government establishs investigation working group to undertake checking rectifying and reform, at present already 3 alumina enterprise suffers second incident effect, involve produce can make an appointment with 3 million tons.
2.Immediate impact:
Alumina lasted first quarter 2019 superfluous, the occurrence deficit of high cost area, had appeared to overhaul behavior centrally. Suffer effect of incident of safety of bare mud library, close again stop 3 million tons to produce can, monthly crop reduces 250 thousand tons, make domestic alumina no longer superfluous, drive is short-term alumina price goes up.
3.City pushs after act:
Incident drives alumina price to rise, industry profit is improved, produce can put in accelerate. Mothball the yield that increases put into production newly can can't enclothe this to shut stop production can, but the yield of the overhaul can follow-up can be accelerated. Additional, do the splits of price of alumina of inside and outside, entrance window is faced with later period to be opened again, become the obstacle that alumina goes up. Accordingly, below the circumstance that does not expand in a got-up affair, obstruction of predicting alumina upper part is in 3000 yuan / ton.
Risk clew:
Safety of bare mud library checks big range to roll out
Problem of safety of library of mud of 0 1 bare by media focusing
On May 7, new capital newspaper is published " mud of bare of the top of head, foot treads foul water, pay taxes large family has " contaminative prerogative " " , tell about origin of bare mud library and characteristic, descriptive Shanxi makes a warehouse of one bare mud the life state of downstream dweller, pointing out the dweller removes acerbly is not the vital part that solves a problem, want to be superintended lawfully however, face up to and administer aluminous factory pollution, from go up at all remove " hang a top " the potential risk of bare mud library.
Follow-up of 0 2 incident
Problem of safety of bare mud library by media focusing, cause all circles attention, relevant enterprise is faced with stop production to rectify and reform. Divide this beyond, safe platoon checks bare mud library to spread out in Shanxi province. On May 10, the market comes out government of people of the county that meet an opening makes buccal fat aluminous trade about stopping Shandong Dong Yue the sources of energy finite liability company all announcements that produce action, sign date to be on May 9, 2019. End on May 13, integrated each information, shanxi province already had 3 alumina enterprise to suffer effect of incident of bare mud library, the situation of stop production is as follows:
Shanxi makes exposure of problem of library of mud of bare of incident of leak of filtrate of library of mud of bare of and other places of mouth, filial piety justice, local government height takes seriously, already established investigation working group to undertake checking rectifying and reform. Had closed at present stop 1.75 million tons to produce can, sequel leads follow-up 1.3 million tons probably.
According to Aladdin data, our country alumina moved actually in March 2019 produce can 69.61 million tons, build produce can 83.97 million tons, start working rate glides reach 829 thousand tons. Start working rate glides main as a result of alumina price drops spark alumina enterprise overhauls reduction of output.
With (alumina crop + the entrance is measured - exit is measured) - electroanalysis the balance position of alumina of token of aluminous crop *1.92, discover from October 2018 later, domestic alumina turns gradually for excess position, alumina price also from 3250 yuan / ton go weak all the way, drop to by March 2725 yuan / ton, rate of alumina start working glided apparently in March. Alumina price dropped in April reach 2650 yuan / ton, northward alumina enterprise overhauls limits to increase, move actually produce can continue to drop.
If stop 3 million tons in order to close / produce can estimation, monthly loss crop 250 thousand tons, calculate come down May domestic alumina market is excess position no longer. Accordingly, manufacturer all is behaved to trafficker link excited.
The city after 0 4 is pushed act
Current, a got-up affair can ferment further business is not clear, investigate investigation limits to whether continue to expand namely? How long to already close the yield that stop to you can want ability to restore?
Below the circumstance that investigation limits does not enlarge, evolving into method is supply and demand turns had not been remnant -- rise in price -- improve industry profit -- advance new increase production to be able to put in produce with the overhaul can return to. Add the increment that put in newly to fear cannot enclothing this to close stop an amount, basically see the overhaul produce can regression.
Additional, domestic alumina price rises to drop with abroad alumina price, form price do the splits, entrance window is faced with abroad alumina to be opened afresh. Accordingly, below the circumstance that does not expand in a got-up affair, the resistance that estimates alumina ahead is in 3000 yuan / ton.
The article is come from grind to rushing cast
