My steely dispatch: The near future is opposite rolled steel price, near future of raw material price is more strong. Now coke the 3rd round carry go up will raid, individual cooking factory is carried to downstream trafficker go up the 3rd round 50 yuan / ton. Such going up situation can you still continue? This period, we invite Lei Moqing of analyst of department of Mysteel coal anxious career, listen to him how to say --
▍ core viewpoint:
1, according to survey, the whole nation produces per year 300 thousand tons the following (contain) the colliery adds up to 2566, but supply an influence to coking coal finite, basically give priority to with dynamical coal.
2, coke market look forward to is firm since the last ten-day of a month in April rebound, trafficker takes money enthusiasm rises and fall south coke reach foreign trade to export order for goods delicate, cause haven stock innovation is tall.
4, price of steel of near future of be enslaved to be enslaved to drops, anxious look forward to is carried to the 3rd round go up to adopt cautious attitude relatively, in at present coke demand still has the case that support to fall, do not eliminate near future anxious look forward to to have continue p reaper is carried go up, but extent or close narrow.
▍ is to interview memoir below:
Lei Moqing: " the announcement that administers about strengthening a colliery to pound the ground to control source " file requirement future is accelerated advance backward coal produce can exit, strive 2021 bottom, the whole nation 300 thousand tons / year amount of the following colliery decreases to 800 place less than; And exit 4 areas such as advance Shan Mengning basically within 2019 300 thousand tons / year Jihei of distant of the following, look forward to Su Wanlu pleaseds Gan Qing is new wait for 11 areas 150 thousand tons / year below.
The coal that concerns statistic of anxious place of branch and Mysteel coal according to the country is produced can data shows (be not complete count) , the whole nation produces per year 300 thousand tons the following (contain) the colliery adds up to 2566, include demarcate to be among them 0 produce can the colliery adds up to 624, aggregate produce per year can three hundred and thirty-three million one hundred and twenty thousand tons, this part will 2021 the bottom is cut to 800 less than, exit produce can conservative estimation to be controlled for 200 million tons about.
But supply an influence to coking coal finite, basically give priority to with dynamical coal.
Lei Moqing: Coke market look forward to is firm since the last ten-day of a month in April rebound, trafficker takes money enthusiasm rises and fall south coke reach foreign trade to export order for goods delicate, bring about haven to inventory increases continuously and innovate tall.
Cooking factory sells pressure to alleviate, but downstream steelworks purchases enthusiasm still on the low side, much with wait-and-see give priority to. Last week, inventory of week of 110 steelworks coke can use my net survey 13.98 days, grow 0.77 days compared to the same period, the stock inside steelworks factory is relatively enough, blast furnace of blame heating season is decreased be restricted to produce anticipate and mix inside cooking factory whole of haven coke inventory is exalted.
On the whole, at present steelworks and cooking factory last to the city after coke bullish put difference.
Lei Moqing: Up to on May 10, according to Mysteel coal whole nation of survey of anxious career department becomes independent 30 times whole nation of anxious look forward to is average ton of anxious gain 137.51 yuan, its Zhongshan follows one course on the west anxious average gain 140.31 yuan.
230 independent cooking of countrywide are produced integratedly can utilization rate 81.07% , be in nearly one year half since relatively exalted level. Produce from divisional region can in light of utilization rate, china north 79.53% , hua Dong 80.45% , northwest 84.5% , china in 89.07% , southwest 78.33% , northeast 82.95% .
230 independent cooking of Mysteel whole nation are produced can utilization rate circumstance (divide main area)
230 independent cooking of Mysteel whole nation are produced can utilization rate circumstance (cent is produced can)
Lei Moqing: The individual comes down from the understanding on the market, at present blast furnace of Tang Shan area is restricted to produce whole to anticipate not as good as, and have not have increase be restricted to produce a trend, at present crude steel day all crop still maintains perch, form to coke demand prop up.
Lei Moqing: Recently coke the 2nd round rise basic already be born is carried out, but price of steel of near future of be enslaved to be enslaved to drops, anxious look forward to is carried to the 3rd round go up to adopt cautious attitude relatively, in at present coke demand still has the case that support to fall, do not eliminate near future anxious look forward to to have continue p reaper is carried go up, but extent or close narrow.
