The article selects and edit from date of small letter public " Wind information " .
The United States ever was initiated to China 2010 " 301 investigation " , and this round of investigation criterion only then 2017, just meet " 7 years urticant " .
American president Telangpu signed presidential memorandum on March 22, according to " 301 investigation " result, the 60 billion dollar to coming from China (add up to 380 billion yuan of RMBs about) the product imposes custom duty, limitative China company invests to the United States and buy.
On March 23, department of Commerce makes known his position to say to plan to be added to the product of 3 billion dollar that imports from the United States impose custom duty.
Sino-US trade war " on the verge of breaking out "
American president Telangpu signed presidential memorandum on March 22, according to " 301 investigation " result, will large-scale to the goods that imports from China impose custom duty, limitative China company invests to the United States and buy. Telangpu says to media before the White House signs, the Chinese commodity scale that involves levy can amount to 60 billion dollar.
To this, china is stationed in American embassy response to say, just do not hope to make trade war in, but do not fear trade war absolutely, have confidence, capable to answer any challenges. If the United States just is determined to want to hit, we will keep to the end, take all and necessary step determined defend oneself closes right increase.
Spokesman of news of Department of Commerce is beautiful 301 investigation decide to publish a talk to express, just do not hope to make trade war in, but do not fear absolutely trade war; Below any circumstances, in square won't oneself of sit by and watch adds up to right beneficial to be damaged, already had made sufficient preparation, determined defend oneself is lawful interest; Have confidence, capable to answer any challenges; The hope is beautiful square wake up to and avoid danger at the last moment, discreet and decision-making, do not delay impact of bilateral classics trade into dangerous situation.
Department of Commerce Chen Fuli of law department director expresses, will pay close attention to 301 investigation closely to concern progress next, once the United States concerns measure to carry out, china can move stoutly.
In addition, chinese Department of Commerce is early on March 23 released in the light of the United States the break down of 232 measure decreases import iron and steel and aluminous product to let product detailed list and seek public opinion, plan to impose custom duty to importing partial product to add from the United States, increase the loss that in asking for custom duty to give, square interest causes in order to because the United States is steely to the entrance,be balanced with aluminous product. Plan pair of value among them the beautiful homebred fruit of 3 billion dollar, pork, bishop, seamless steel tube imposes custom duty with a variety of additionally 100 commodity.
This detailed list is provisional include 7 kinds, 128 duty product, press 2017 statistic, involve the United States to be opposite China exit of about 3 billion dollar. The first part adds up to 120 duty, involve the United States to be opposite China exit of 977 million dollar, include alcohol of fresh fruit, dried fruit and nut goods, bishop, modified, Hua Qi the product such as ginseng, seamless steel tube, plan to add impose the custom duty of 15% . The 2nd part adds up to 8 duty, involve the United States to be opposite China exit of 1.992 billion dollar, include pork and product, reclaim the product such as aluminium, plan to add impose the custom duty of 25% .
Global market concussion
Suffer effect of Sino-US trade friction, global money market is common concussion.
Stock market respect, zhou Wu, card put together points to on close drop 3.39% newspapers 3152.76 bits, achieve since Feburary 9 the biggest drop; Deep card is become point to drop 4.02% newspapers 10439.99 bits, do poineering work board point to drop 5.02% newspapers 1726.02 bits. Two city clinch a deal six hundred and thirty-five billion three hundred and twelve million yuan, relatively on day the corresponding period magnifies apparently. This week, shanghai points to drop even more 3.5% , do poineering work board point to drop 5.23% .
Fall after a rise of all fronts of Hong Kong stock market, constant unripe index closes drop 2.45% newspapers 30309.29 bits, drop 3.79% ; State-owend enterprise index falls 2.41% newspapers 12128.27 bits, drop 4.03% ; Red prepare an index to drop 2.17% newspapers 4418.11 bits, drop 1.8% . Full day big city clinchs a deal litre to two hundred and eighty-three billion four hundred and forty-five million HK dollar, achieve since April 2015 new tall, the history that is apart from two hundred and ninety-one billion five hundred and twenty-nine million HK dollar is nodded high only the Yao of one pace, day trades to be one hundred and fifty-one billion nine hundred and thirty-three million HK dollar before.
(the picture comes from 10 thousand get terminal harbor real time prices)
Closing quotation of Asia-Pacific stock market also all fronts drops greatly. Day drops via 225 indexes 4.51% , drop 4.88% ; Korea aggregate index drops 3.18% , drop 3.10% ; Taiwan adds authority index to drop 1.66% , drop 1.65% ; Australian ASX200 index falls 1.96% , drop 2.39% ; Index of New Zealand NZX50 falls 0.99% , go up 0.30% .
Period city respect, night of futures of the commodity inside Zhou Wuguo dish majority drops, iron ore closes drop 1.9% . Coke closes drop 1.37% , coal of cooking coal, motivation closes respectively go up 1.09% , 2.12% . Rape oil, soya-bean oil, palm oil closes respectively drop 0.49% , 0.7% , 1.09% . In addition, whorl steel, hot-rolling coils board close respectively drop 2.6% , 1.14% . Balata closes drop 5.82% , bitumen closes go up 2.87% .
Collect city respect, zhou Wu, add dollar rises off shore RMB defeat 6.32 col, go up in a few days 200 are nodded, refresh since March 20 new tall. In bank RMB add dollar 16:3Price of 0 closing quotation signs up for 6.324, relatively go up to trade day drops 28 base point, this week goes up 7 base point. Price shift demotes among RMB add dollar 105 base point, newspaper 6.3272.
Debt city respect, avoid danger mood is aided push period debt to close considerably go up, with 5 years 10 years brunt adds up to reduction of a fraction not to go up 0.64% with 0.29% , all start 5 months new tall. Certificate yield shows between the bank considerably be issued to lower levels, 10 years period country opens active certificate 170215 yield for a time be issued to lower levels exceeds 16bp lowest to touch 4.67% , achieve even more 4 months are new low; Second 15.01bp of 180205 yield be issued to lower levels signs up for active certificate 4.63% , dish in lowest touchs 4.60% ; 10 years period national debt is active 4.75bp of 180004 yield be issued to lower levels signs up for certificate 3.70% .
City of Zhou Wuou US stock drops greatly once more. Path point to close even more 400 a little bit or drop 1.77% , sign up for 23533.2 a little bit, achieve last year since November 22 new low; Accept points to close drop 2.43% , sign up for 6992.67 a little bit; 500 indexes receive mark general drop 2.1% , 2588.26 bits. This week, path point to drop 5.63% , accept points to drop 6.54% , mark general 500 indexes fall 5.95% , all achieve even more two years the biggest odd week drops.
Europe shows collective drops big 3. The 100 indexes when England is rich close drop 0.44% , sign up for 6921.94 a little bit, start 15 months new low, drop 3.38% ; French CAC40 index closes drop 1.39% , sign up for 5095.22 a little bit, drop 3.55% ; German DAX index closes drop 1.77% , sign up for 11886.31 a little bit, start 12 months new low, drop 4.06% .
Sea foreign trader tastes a respect, COMEX gold futures closes go up 1.48% , sign up for 1352.9 dollars / ounce, closing quotation is new since achieving 5 weeks tall, this week goes up 3.09% . COMEX silver futures closes go up 1.06% , sign up for 16.56 dollars / ounce, this week goes up 1.77% .
Futures of NYMEX crude oil closes go up 1.44 dollars, go up for 2.24% , sign up for 65.74 dollars / bucket, since achieving 8 weeks new tall, this week goes up 5.34% .
Appear on the market influence of war of company response trade
In the light of " Telangpu signs memorandum to will impose custom duty to Chinese commodity " , much home A appear on the market company Zhou Wu (on March 23) the response affects a situation to business.
Crystal photoelectricity says, professional work of company exit United States is less, the impact that get is not big.
Long be filled with nicety to express, although the partial client of the company is American company, but the product majority of the company is the company that shipment gives churchyard, custom duty raises the influence minimum to the company.
Triumphant in nicety expresses, the company offers money for whole world of manufacturer of famous car component, direct consign is occupied native landly to the United States than very small, sino-US trade war does not have immediate impact to company outstanding achievement.
Sha Longda A expresses, company business is spent dispersedly in the whole world very tall, occurrence change of the trade barrier when a certain specific country or area and custom duty policy, the company can be made accordingly seasonable appropriately business structure adjusts. If Sino-US between undertake " trade war " , to the company business will produce an effect, but very won't big.
Medical treatment of in relief general expresses, the main client of company international trade is centered in Europe, South America and area of Asian and other places, occupy to beautiful commerce advocate battalion income proportion is very small.
The communication that believe dimension expresses, did not produce any effects to company business at present, the collaboration of company and client everything is normal.
Element of square big charcoal expresses, exported the United States 2017 150 million yuan, occupy in those days total battalion closes 1.89% , not big to influence of company management outstanding achievement.
81 iron and steel express, the company exports the United States without the product.
The suitable industry that send constant expresses, business is in the beauty is praedial investment, do not involve exit product.
Science and technology expresses Shenghong, united States of company product sale occupies company battalion to close about 0.82% the left and right sides, sino-US trade war does not have an influence basically to the company.
Ruibeika expresses, although the company is right proportion of United States exit is larger, but hairpiece fractionize industry is relatively small numerous, do not form competition to concern to American enterprise, won't form an influence to company business.
Morning abundant science and technology expresses in interactive platform, company product is made an appointment with 20% the left and right sides sells abroad, the market outside main area includes India, southeast Asia, European Union to wait. The company basically exports a nation or the area did not set special trade barrier, this trade controversial issue, lesser to firm influence.
Yi Gore expresses, company product has own intellectual property, beautiful custom duty of the Fang Jiazeng in be opposite still does not have immediate impact to the company.
Beijing east expresses, the newspaper in 2017 shows, america area amount holds income proportion for 2.5% .
Tai Shengfeng can express, the United States rose early to apply class wind tower to carry out to China 2012 " double instead " , the company already changed a product to export the United States without batch in recent years. Even if United States is right China start trade war, to the company exit also does not have an influence.
Triumphant Lai flower express, sino-US two countries regards the whole world as the largest two economy put oneself in another's position, war of so called trade will be great the prime increase that harms two countries and broad consumer.
Couplet changes science and technology to express, the company has confidence to maintain and promote as good as the client cooperation the relation further with product, technology and integrated advantage.
Continent bright science and technology expresses, company product exports the whole world, do not form fast outlet to depend on in the United States, and LED small span shows screen is very the domain of fractionize, may not is adding the catalog that imposes custom duty in, did not receive the announcement of levy at present. The company can dog closely this item, think method will dissolve the crisis actively.
Silver annulus stock represents, my company checks 2017 year directly American exit forehead is 280 million yuan about, take total business income about 6.7% . Additional, specific add ask for custom duty catalogue item to have not decide, to me the material effect of the company still cannot be judged at present.
Hai Lunzhe expresses, sino-US trade war looks from the angle of long-term development, be helpful for promoting Hai Lunzhe to accelerate the process of product of aerial work truck of jib of insulation of own research and development, production.
Cross condition express, the mode that crosses condition trade basically has B2B and B2C two kinds, among them B2B mode basically is the tradition crosses condition trade, crossing platform of condition cable business is B2C mode. Via checking, my company did business 2017 income 40% come from American market, among them the income that exports American abroad storehouse occupies general commerce to estimate than guarding 45% the left and right sides, odd 55% the left and right sides mails for express packet form. The category that assumes custom duty of this second United States promotes pair of 30% exit the United States causes an effect, criterion we predict to affect company income range not to exceed 6% . Be aimed at this influence, the company can emphasize the product that develops other uninfluenced class, post means is adopted as far as possible send small package from home, be opposite in order to reduce levy of this second United States the influence of the company. Trade war squashs further space of traditional B2B profit, and B2C commerce won't get too much influence, contrary, b2C cost advantage can be highlighted further. From cross way of condition import business to look, current, the entrance of the company purchases business to come from American market to make an appointment with extremely one of, accordingly, although China promotes pair of United States commerce import tariff, the company imports business to won't be affected temporarily.
Hua Ying agriculture expresses, of short duration does not have company farming by-product to be exported to the United States, at the same time the company also is studying relevant policy is right actively the influence of the company.
Deep south circuit expresses, the company makes progress close attention situation, take necessary step in time.
Golden river biology expresses, I manage is the manufacturing business with the biggest crop of the aureomycin inside global limits, the product has stronger competitive dominant position in the United States, Canada and South-American market. Sino-US trade war won't produce materiality effect to the company.
Shanghai steel couplet expresses, be aimed at overseas market, the company still lies at present attempt phase; Sino-US trade war is short-term inside won't produce immediate effect to company business.
Easy thing shows especially, the company did not have the market of some location discriminative treatment, the market of each area all has emphasize particularly on synchronous also development. Trade war won't have to company business bring bigger impact.
Buddha lights share to express, the company enrages source structure diversity, trade war is little to purchasing the price to affect.
Can establish a gram to express, telangpu is right China trade war concerns report and policy have not Anacreontic, finite also to the business effect of the company.
Fu hill hot pickled mustard tuber expresses, company export business is occupied than very small, the impact is not big.
Constant China science and technology expresses, at present the overseas business income of the company is occupied advocate the income proportion of business Wu is very small, in the earlier phase that the market extends.
Long cable science and technology expresses, at present company product of short duration is not had sell in American area.
The relation that cast aside Qing Dynasty calculated, still have appear on the market the company is flat begin to collect American product custom duty to applaud for China. For instance:
East bloc shows in interactive platform, china is imported to the United States farming the proportion in producing is the largest is the product such as soja, china plans to wait to American produce add impose custom duty, be helpful for promoting home competition ability of relevant agriculture industry, to the company outstanding achievement will produce positive effect.
What industry can suffer affect?
To the domain that trade war basically affects, golden company thinks to have in:
1, from sign memorandum to look, of be the first to be affected is to be aimed at China to plan to increase the trade that imposes 25% additional custom duty, especially aerospace, information and communication technology, mechanical domain;
2, occupy higher industry to also can be affected to beautiful commerce. From the point of structure of current Sino-US trade trade, china basically is mechanical equipment instrument to exit product of the United States (the basis is classified basically is the category such as home appliance, electron, hold export gross 48%) and miscellaneous a goods (12%) , textile (10%) , metal (7%) . The product that the United States exports to China basically is centered in mechanical equipment instrument (30% , basically be capital is tasted) , facility for transporting (product of 20%) , chemical industry (10%) , plastic reach rubber products (5%) .
Occupy bigger A for American income below appear on the market company list (2016, before 100) :
Xiang Zhuang performs a sword-dance, meaning in abundant fair?
When the risk that judges Sino-US trade controversial issue to may be brought in the market, the orgnaization is analysed, this the United States starts trade war, its purpose may is not is to should improve bilateral trade number, having bigger intention however.
Promote course of study to consider to think, sino-US commerce is lopsided it is American trade war appeals to the excuse that beg and tentative target only, and China of keep within limits overtakes " super- be restricted battle " , it is more important because of,move, and this still are oversight of most person place.
On March 1, american commerce thinks on behalf of the office congress referred concerned Telangpu the transaction of trade policy, the report points out the United States will be used " all practicable tools " , prevent China " destroy real market to compete " .
And the United States " compendium of 2018 trade policy and 2017 year report " point out clearly: "Should ensure the United States is in the lead position of research and technical respect, economy of protective United States avoids the effect that suffers inequity to get competitor of our intellectual property. To this, the United States (to China) initiate 301 investigation to be passed in order to prevent China unreasonable reach discrimination sex measure to get (of the United States) technology and intellectual property " .
With Shi Weijian: 5 " 301 investigation " all point to same result
Actually, already was the United States this the 6th those who be aimed at China " 301 investigation " , and time see the history can discover, before 5 final results are same.
Vermilion opens arms, an ancient name for China to grind in the newspaper thinks, look from historical experience, sino-US both sides predicts to compromise still can is attributed to after conflicting through local commerce, the possibility that evolves into overall trade war is not large.
Grind newspaper analysis, the United States on the history ever was opposite 5 times China launch 301 investigation, look from historical result, final both sides all reachs compromise, not evolution becomes overall trade war. 301 clauses more is the measure that the United States gets negotiation advantage.
Xie Yaxuan of the negotiable securities that enrol business grinds newspaper statistic, 90 time, the United States ever undertook 3 times to China " special 301 investigation " , was 1991 respectively, mixed 1994 1996. After entering a life, in October 2010, american commerce announces on behalf of the office, should federation of American steely worker applies for, will according to " American law of trade " the 301st clause, a series of new energy policy that make to Chinese government institute and arrange put to good use open investigation. This is American China since joining WTO, employ first " 301 clauses " undertake investigating to act of trade of other economy system, final China and United States solve a mechanism in WTO conflict next consulting undertaking, agree to revise " wind-force generates electricity special fund manages equipment industrialization temporary measure " in be suspected of prohibiting the content of sexual allowance.
Zhu Qibing, an ancient name for China grinds the newspaper thinks, current, american trade total trade deficit has a half to come from about right China commerce, but what more of current adverse balance of trade mirrors is Sino-US what divide the work in global economic system is different, and the United States is right China one part adverse balance of trade comes from implement the exit restriction such as product of new and high technology to China at the United States. Look on the whole, overall trade war is double be defeated by a result. The report thinks, means that 301 investigation remain the United States to get negotiation advantage, sino-US both sides predicts to compromise still can is attributed to after conflicting through local commerce, the possibility that evolves into overall trade war is not large.
Song Xuetao of day wind negotiable securities grinds newspaper analysis, import tax rate to be in to China in the United States only 10% , 15% fall with the circumstance of 25% , china just is less than American loss in the loss in trade war likely, if Telangpuke in order to use presidential power, bypass congress raises tariff inside 150 days of deadline to 15% , so China adopts custom duty to rise to 25% , 35% , 45% all can cause to the United States with comprehensive boycott strike back effectively. But if the United States rises to Chinese levy,come 35% with 45% , no matter China takes step of which kinds of retaliation, the loss that China suffers all is more than the loss that the United States suffers.
Raise tariff to China like the United States to 45% , although China takes the step of comprehensive boycott to can restricting a trade, the loss that China suffers because of trade war still is more than the loss that the United States suffers because of trade war.
But the report thinks trade war may not can spread out smoothly, perhaps say, trade war may not can erupt with comprehensive, radical form, spread out with local, progressively trade friction form however.
On one hand, american itself also can be hit by great economy, according to the United States international economy institute calculates Petersen, although produce brief trade war, domain of American privately owned also will lose station of 1.3 million works, 1% what hold number of total work of privately owned field. On the other hand, the greatest limits of authority of American president can be only inside deadline of 150 days, to all entrances commodity imposes the custom duty that does not exceed 15% , congress offers to have veto to the custom duty of 15% above, and the relation of congress and business circles cannot be ignored. Regard the United States as associate of the biggest commerce, china can depend on the commerce that waits for an industry to the produce that imports from the United States, Electromechanical, aerostat to be made instead, have the place that negotiates with the United States, these commerce make a likelihood make instead custom duty offers to suffer those who come from American business circles object.
Sino-US if produce trade war, not be with pure commerce protection is a purpose actually, if rise,Telangpuxi hopes custom duty is press the RMB appreciates or circumfluence of high-end manufacturing industry, chinese commerce is made instead also is the time that hopes the chip that has a negotiation exchanges China to deepen reform. Be absent because of respective intent just about commerce itself, the possibility that produces overall trade war is not tall, future may be commonner is Sino-US between the local, trade friction that happens stage by stage.
Affect geometry to China?
Considering this conflict the likelihood is moved toward finally " thunder is big, raindrop is small " circumstance, the market is general and careful hopeful.
The sea connects negotiable securities to express, need not too too panicky, market metaphase trend depends on main area. The focus of memorandum is mixed in intellectual property high-tech domain, the near future was accumulated go up certainly science and technology kind pressure slants big, borrow machine eliminate the false and retain the true, moved dish of full value in order to make a round trip in Feburary kind, appraise value gain matchs it is better to spend.
Golden company thinks likewise in, answer the concussion of short-term likelihood actively, in long-term need not too pessimistic. Its report the analysis says, aggravate of Sino-US trade friction affects investor to face the judgement that grows at Chinese economy from only outlet layer on certain level, be opposite in the near future especially growth difference is bigger when dot, bring certain influence possibly to short-term market sentiment and risk preference. In the range that long-term material effect rate inspects follow-up trade war even and deepness will judge, but the tenacity that the consideration requires inside current China and relatively ample policy amortize room, we think to grow foreground and capital market performance to Chinese economy need not too pessimistic, if short-term market appears successive and range is bigger excessive adjust it is better to was offerred for investor instead enter an opportunity.
In addition, orgnaization of international authority grade also thinks this trade war is right the influence of China and global economy is finite.
International one of orgnaizations of 3 big grade Hui Yufa expresses newest viewpoint to think, the United States the action that to Chinese 500-600 commodity of 100 million dollars imposes custom duty, produce major effect unlikelily to China or global economy. China can solve the custom duty problem with the United States, but commerce risk will increase.
Benefit praise express, 60 billion dollar is equivalent to China exporting total to beautiful commodity 2.5% the left and right sides, or 0.5% of Chinese GDP, but custom duty will be small to the influence of Chinese economy much. Because lack substitute, these goods still can go the United States finally, and other goods may change different market. The United States is current to China commodity of 100 million dollars collects 500-600 the measure of custom duty, add to Chinese GDP fast be a burden on won't exceed 0.1% .
Benefit praise express, fragmentary protectionism measure has upgraded in nearly a few months for " have ruinous trade war more " . At present bigger risk depends on the United States imposing custom duty finally in the round to China. Nearly 1/5 what the United States occupies China to export total, 3.6% what be equivalent to Chinese GDP, so extensive custom duty may produce quite big effect to Chinese economy, because supply the relation of catenary,also can be in Asian other area to cause chain reaction. War of in addition Sino-US trade also can destroy global investor confidence.
Moody expresses, the grade of Chinese enterprise won't suffer trade controversial issue to affect. The basis is preliminary evaluate, the measure that American government announces up to now is narrow to Chinese economy influence, but if large-scale protectionism measure comes on stage, evaluate to its have possibly change.
Moody statement says, compare with the photograph 10 years ago, chinese economy growth drops to the dependence of exit; Before exporting the contribution that increases to GDP to also be compared 10 years completely a lot of lower- - 2015-2016 year it is 0.1 percent on average, 2005-2007 year it is 3.4 percent on average.
The industry sex tariff that already announced at present won't cause materiality harm to Chinese exit, because these industries are right American market exit is finite, include the custom duty that face plate of pair of smooth hot season, washing machine, iron and steel and aluminium impose. If the United States enlarges custom duty limits to take extensive protectionism step considerably, negative effect will bigger.
Moody says, raise the attention of arrangement of multilateral to bilateral and rather than trade, will make credit benefit air to Asian economy system.
