2017, nobody drive the person that a talent of the domain does poineering work finds me, he ever was one of members that Gu Ge studies the earliest to nobody drive. I and he chatted in Beijing ZhongGuanCun probably 3 hours, after be over a little, I tell him, nobody drive be in China 10 years in hard be born.
When those, nobody drive to rise in unboiled water of wind of Chinese it may be said, build car new power in succession emerge in large numbers, 2017 a lot of nobody drive newly established company still took big financing.
National level, in June 2017, industry and informatization ministry were formed " system of standard of industry of network of national car couplet builds a guideline (car of intelligent network couplet) (2017) " (ask for an opinion to stalk of grain) ; Of the same age in December, labour believes a ministry print and distribute " promote industry of new generation artificial intelligence to develop the action 3 years to plan (2018-2020 year) " , rate car of intelligent network couplet first class to breed a target.
Because big environment profit is good and the self-confidence of individual of the person that do poineering work, in those days, he is not approbated to my viewpoint. His company is experiencing transition nowadays. The CEO John Krafcik of Waymo of the company below Alphabet banner also expressed in November 2018, future inside a few years, automatic road-sense still cannot accomplish nowhere to be absent, nobody drive the car also will be put in limitation all the time.
Right now, distance Waymo begins to consider to drive automatically car technology had gone nearly 10 years. Its check course of development to break through 10 million miles, in numerous and automatic drive the be far ahead in the company, the judgement of Waymo is to be based on them several years to the technology that come is accumulated and be carried out, very strong direct sense is had inside the industry.
Automatic road-sense is L0-L5 according to the ability cent of automation, l0 is completely artificial drive, l1 is belonged to to L3 auxiliary and automatic drive, operating principal part still is human driver, promotion efficiency is finite. L4, L5 is high automation and complete automation respectively, those who belong to me to talk about is unmanned driving category. Why I do not value nobody to drive, core is driving at nobody is the rich play chess with the person.
▲ drives automatically classification (n/arc drafting: Wang Sai Cheng)
The first, say 5-10 year, drive automatically to hold water hard in China. The reason is as follows: Above all, research and development needs 2 years at least, achievement of preliminary research and development wants 2-3 again in factory be born year. After the factory comes out, still need to obtain corresponding aptitude and license plate, should spend 1-2 again so year. This is very hopeful estimation, add up in all at least 5 years of time.
The 2nd, can go up eventually after 5 years road, began the rich play chess with the person. Nobody drive to be judged completely according to regulation, red light stops, green light goes. But some pedestrians are inobservant traffic is regular, rush about for instance red light. I think at least 10 years in, this kind of phenomenon is put an end to hard. Once produce event striking a person, no matter be what reason, from the point of policy angle, regular meeting faces control.
So, nobody drive the enemy with the greatest future is not a system also not be a technology. I feel system and technology can come true sooner or later, but once be faced with,weichi with the person's rich, basically 10 years in, be in China is hard of be born.
Notable is, what what mention here is unmanned drive what difficult be born points to is to multiply the setting that use a car. But nobody drive to be in as the promotion efficiency, technology that reduces cost the following domains, I think to have perspective very much:
The first, content spreads a trade. Be in certain and opposite the highway that close or garden area, undertake content shedding is carried. Because the environment is opposite pure, situation of the distance between main consideration car, circuitry, transportation can come true. For instance at present some of large freightage closes in little scope in the space already be born.
The 2nd, of all sorts of project appliance drive automatically. Project appliance is the field that waits to close relatively in building site, mining area has operation, and driver cost is very high. The CEO of industry of machinery of a project tells me, be in China, light is to give these drivers hair salary, also have 100 billion one year - 200 billion yuan. If this respect comes true,nobody are changed, can reduce cost greatly.
Anyhow, in the unmanned, area that closes relatively, nobody drive to be able to not have very large development space. As population aged and low fertility-rate, prospective China is badly in need of wanting to solve manpower cost problem.
Be based on above judgement, 100 people are in new economy past 3-4 inside year, nobody drive hot, capital disputes the notion photograph angle when, by what use car field nobody drive one the company had not reported, had reported exclusively drive with nobody relevant company is graph dark future. This is nobody drive lorry brand, the L4 level below company division nobody drive the lorry can be used at dock of the container inside freeway freight and harbor carry reach its similar setting, for city border content shedding is carried offer drive automatically solution.
3 years of two scene are infinite in the past drive automatically company, one part has disappeared from the scene nowadays, or of the person that survive has begun transition, or walking on two legs -- development closes the low speed car inside setting, auxiliary perhaps road-sense, let oneself have hematopoiesis capacity, survive from inside this cold winter come down.
To the newly established company of technology, algorithmic drive, be being bought by big company is a pretty good outlet probably, for example Cruise, Argo AI is bought by general, Ford respectively. However as each automatic road-sense gradually hasten is the same as, poineering company also is met with the difference between the tycoon all the more is apparent. Commercialize not within the foreseeable future, nobody drive the whole of poineering company lives the current situation nots allow hopeful.
Did not break away from the company besides times and society. I am in no less than new 2019 economy 0 bounds peak meets 100 people the speech place that go up says: In times of current immensity bound, the climate that the person that did not come to any doing poineering work needs a country, society, times, technology and individual interest photograph are united in wedlock.
The company that nobody drive people also be such.
