Policy interest good stimulation, capital grabs drive of interest of beach layout, market, this erupts what a series of elements drove market of our country online education in the round. And meanwhile, conceal in " blast tuyere " bright the deficit difficult problem of appearance also made a trade however " long-standing " problem.
Recently, english is fluent said to announce oneself the money newspaper first quarter, profit of common shareholder net is vest in - sixty-seven million two hundred and seventy-two thousand RMB yuan, business income is 253 million RMB yuan.
A bit accident is done not have, fluent say deficit. What must say is, fluent say to appear defect entered a deficit to normalize odd group, contain AI " Buff " add hold look nowadays it seems that it doesn't matter is used, those who be immersed in deficit to circulate to death is fluent say, what how should realize ego to come to to save atone for?
Is the pattern abuse below weak network effect highlighted?
Stress dimensions economy more unlike past commerce society, enter deep water area in mobile Internet development today, network effect becomes the target that a lot of enterprise seeks, also be at the same time those who include the Internet project value such as online education reflect a drop. The user that network effect points to a product or serves is more, value is greater. It is better to let an enterprise build, faster, value the tall, service platform that can last.
So fluent saying network effect after all how?
The scholar blocks husband foundation to go up in Mei Te, think the value of Internet depends on the mutual join between node, every N node likelihood and N-1 other node produces connection, potential correlation is N(N-1) , namely N ˇ 2 amounts class. Because the value of this Internet company is: V=N ˇ 2, among them V is Internet value, n is user amount.
This is planted later " the user is consummate " judgement criterion is ceaseless and perfect, guo Taijun installs politic group to think before Internet company value by change element of 4 big core forms the network node that shows amount of rate of price of factor, excessive, user or potential user amount, high quality, evolve on this foundation gave a relatively across-the-board formula:
Among them V is Internet value, k is to change show factor, p is coefficient of excessive price rate (basically depend on the position in the industry) , n is network user, r is the distance between network node (factor interacts between the client) .
So, it is anchor with formula, analyse one mean benefit to say.
With respect to rate paying fee character, fluent the rate paying fee that says an user is about 1.4% . And mobile Internet product probably average the rate paying fee of 5% , written guarantee confluent advantage says to last the financial performance of deficit, can see fluent saying gain ability is not tall, change show factor K value to be in inferior phase.
From fluent saying market position, namely in light of coefficient of rate of P excessive price, analyse theory according to classical commerce, above quota accrual comes from the moat at the enterprise, the fixed position of the company that next of company father king gives a company is the first education of world of 3 mode appear on the market company, those who emphasize is fluent saying AI+ education. But add held education to AI, can not become fluent the origin of price saying excessive. And the sex of effectiveness for a given period of time that does not say technical itself is shorter, even if AI makes trend of a kind of development in the future, but a kind of infrastructure that regards prospective Internet as the times, can companies of more and more science and technology can do a technology to open a source this thing, consequently this can not form very tall barrier to the business of enterprise itself.
In fact, now level is almost all teach kind of product, want to involve speech recognition only, allege oneself and AI are relative, but content of how much true science and technology to have after all? Be afraid should make a question mark.
As we have learned, the language embarks to handle everywhere of interactive English study platform to see on market nowadays. Have English for instance, 51talk, show of English magic square is waited a moment. So, online English learns platform to need to cooperate to basically can implement AI+ education with technical business only, speech recognition technology can be not held by ground of firmly of a company.
Fluent say with the stickiness between the user word, also do not have particularly large dominant position. Be in current China, the purpose of English of most person study is to deal with an exam, after the exam is finished, the book learns data criterion lay aside and neglect, also won't leaf through again in light of. Learn as kind APP also is such, resemble especially fluent the spoken language that says to be aimed at adult market so practices, after the study goal that reachs oneself when the user, so such APP also did not have value in the mobile phone. So, fluent say with the user the stickiness between appears not tall, mirror on formula, namely R value slants big.
From the point of user dimensions, end on September 30, 2018, admiral App " English is fluent say " register user number to already exceeded 97.2 million person, student paying fee exceeds 1 million person, count a side in the user so, profit from China's giant English studies cardinal number, fluent say user growth is more impressive still.
Will integratedly look, fluent saying network effect is not very tall it seems that, battalion accepts much loss much also, this thinks over well with respect to need. Be worth what carry is, though fluent say expression of user growth respect is driving, but the backside of this kind of growth also has a lot of is worth probably meticulous thinking content.
Teach the dimensions common fault of the market? Sale is pulled move growth, capital becomes add life straw
Beyond the problem that manages an aspect besides oneself, the industry of online education " common fault " it is block up likewise fluent the obstacle that says gain.
Online education platform is very much appear go out to be lost apparently flow to cash, mode of a kind of education can come true faddish, it is indispensable that healthy cash flows. Charge of operation of online education company is main by sale, research and development and management 3 charge are formed. Reduce sale cost to occupy comparing is online education orgnaization raises operation efficiency, improvement a key of financial structure is nodded, but regretful is current it did not discover which platform can be handled is good to did not discover which platform can be handled.
And the development as mobile Internet the second half, discharge gets cost taller, increase a trade competition is intense, sale cost certainly will also follows when the river rises the boat goes up-particular things improve with the improvement of the general situation, still the company develops quickly, run cost also when the river rises the boat goes up too. Even if dimensions went up, limit cost also won't drop.
Fluent saying is such actually, add close not to increase benefit and indebted proportion exorbitant two big features are apparent, cash shedding is shown lose apparently to the feature, belong to a model " dimensions is wasteful " .
Those who held water 2012 is fluent say, with artificial intelligence + education is characteristic, core is to use AI technology and big data promotion to learn efficiency.
After appearing on the market however fluent say and did not arrive in be in harmony after Qian Zhi ride absolutely dirt. Although battalion restrains high speed growth, but what its deficit grows is faster. Caustic of annual net loss was made an appointment with 2017 243 million, also achieved about 182 million yuan first half of the year 2018, predict deficit is met this year Yuan Chao last year. After implementation a huge sum grows, visible and fluent saying progress is not plain sailing.
Above all, from the point of the angle of capital, follow to show according to Ai Rui statistic, investment of market of adult foreign language already dropped from 1.05 billion yuan of 2014 to last year 200 million yuan or so, investment orgnaization has spent money voting, it seems that also Cong Mou is planted industry investor also made clear to be attributed to reason on degree, capital cold winter has come.
Fluent those who say wish scene be it is a method with artificial intelligence, help English learner leaves the predicament of dummy English, however the service that this provides is not the child under strong demand, to can not learning for most person.
In addition, for the person that to those needs through spoken language the exam practices spoken language, in home should try education under system, the group with the biggest demand of this pair of English study does not use K12 commonly, and elegant think of, TOEFL those are very small the market size that numerous colloquial exam can produce is afraid prop up to appear on the market hard company, more resemble new east what is more,the rather that, the head firm such as good future also begins professional work of layout spoken English already.
If say fluent " tiger's mouth-jaws of death is fed secretly under the shadow that says the development previously is to be in head enterprise " , so the scene nowadays is " tiger's mouth-jaws of death is seized feed " .
Next, disappear gradually in the bonus of discharge of the second half of mobile Internet, the issue with expensive discharge makes each trades the difficult problem of the face. And on the cost that reflects a business, need to cost charge of more huger sale to obtain discharge to grow namely.
The basis is fluent newspaper saying money shows, last year first half of the year, fluent say on sale charge expenditure achieved 463.7 million yuan, mere this one charge, ate off its battalion completely to close, this also from flank confirm it is difficult that current Internet enterprise wins a customer, win the guest's expensive issue, at the same time fluent say to obtain the issue with customer high cost to because this is revealed,also do not have involuntary discharge of urine.
Compare with other industry posture, educational industry is had apparent " dimensions is wasteful " this one feature. The cost that fosters a teacher is relatively fixed, limit cost cannot decrease successively as the dilate of dimensions, dilate of every time dimensions is the process that is equivalent to going all out from 0 dozens actually. Excessive support burns money sale to obtain a guest to appear to more or less have the feeling of some of drink poison to quench thirst-seek temporary relief regardless of the consequences.
Besides, teaching a domain to still have a characteristic is the lifecycle with target user constant presence, crossed the age to rise to learn, the likelihood did not need. Rely on the sale that burn money to win a customer all the time, did not secure and giant entrance is not the development mode that what health can last probably.
Finally, large-scale be born is done not have in AI technology, present a case that develops quickly to fall, company of science and technology of so called education, appear very feeble. Watch the company of high grade education that at present home appears on the market instead, the advantage of core grooms with respect to what depend on a system system, high grade coach solely content. Because online education also is education, the substaintial attribute of ineludible education, the market education cost of online education is the promotion problem of method of a teaching not just, return drag in to arrive square field surface of education, this is destined to meet is long-term and slow process, need is fluent say to be explored ceaselessly and consider.
This shows, high sale investment is fluent probably say to last the original sin place of deficit, to fluent say and character also needs to reduce his cost that win a customer as soon as possible really, after all of capital support combustion the agent is not never-ending.
C carries " water is too deep " : Lend situation To B blast tuyere or become help straw?
Although the market is current the concept that teachs to AI+ is not deep, the market also not show respect for. But fluent say to develop artificial intelligence + of educational advantage or clearly. Artificial intelligence develops 3 element, algorithmic, calculate force, big data. If will algorithmic, calculate force assimilate to the word of hutch art, so big data feeds capable person namely. And current condition is, the technology of Internet, algorithm is obtained not hard greatly, it is open even. And of big data get what need time however to accumulate, even may by some company monopoly.
The data shows, fluent say to have at present 658 million minutes recording, exceed 8.39 billion sentences. So, look from the development of artificial intelligence, fluent said to hold early very the runway before leaning, and this ability is fluent saying new core dominant position.
Accordingly, let withered Mu Zaifeng painfully with its spring, be inferior to inserting willow afresh, "Start all over again " . Actually convection advantage says the S2b2c pattern that Ceng Ming of lakefront university president raises Alibaba move pole draws lessons from a meaning high. Be based on oneself core advantage, might as well picture recently companies of a lot of science and technology of financial company transition in that way, for B end serves, cut the market with the mode of brand-new S2b2C, and this basically has the following the reflection of two respects.
On one hand, in the English education of traditional English, it is colloquial education field even, had been a the Red Sea, put in move new east, good future and large quantities of one this locality turn the educational company with very apparent feature, much stronger pattern is very clear. Face the market with so intense fight closely, although fluent say advocate call artificial intelligence + education, but still be in substantially and the resource of these company scramble users. So, might as well changeover train of thought, with B upright enterprise undertakes cooperative. In addition, show according to relevant orgnaization, market of Chinese English study is in 2015 when be 150 billion, 2016 is 180 billion, to 2020 when can achieve 450 billion. alleged sell water compare pan can make money, those who say is this truth.
On the other hand, in fact, not only it is class of of all kinds take lessons after school, a few public schools, course develops an orgnaization even the company that sale teachs complementary material is existing to innovate oneself curricular content, such demand that coach accurately. Use oneself to be accumulated for a long time, included most Chinese to learn the speech library of such and such error of English existence, with traditional education orgnaization join forces develops course, fluent like saying with respect to just like one has an especially high teacher of a few years of experience, simple and effective.
This shows, to fluent say, want to solve last at present the deficit, current situation that burns money to win a customer, must change from essential and aspirant travel.
In fact, below new pattern, s2b2C mode compose built a piece to cooperate with network, s namely the technology is offerred square namely fluent say, what B points to is each educational orgnaizations, c is to point to an user. In this one process S and small B build the zoology community of close cooperation, both sides should serve together at C. S endows with the value drop of can small B to depend on providing the certain service of collective need for small B, because small B lacks the capacity of respect of a few technologies.
Below new pattern, have the assorted effect of resource conformity, can realize crossing-over of much channel resource, help enterprise maintains discharge to win the resource dominant position that the respect shows. This kind of resource is valuable undoubtedly, rare be short of, cannot be imitated and replace hard, this made the core competition ability that participates in industry competition, also can increase the brand value of oneself at the same time. Carry consumptive complexity at C relatively after all, b upright consumption is decision-making a few dovisher, the brand that has technical advantage truly also can show itself accordingly.
From the point of policy angle, policy is clearly to commercial influence. Begin from last year, the relevant policy that teachs the market comes on stage in succession, this teachs the uncertainty grow in quantity of investment yes. Arrive by To C To B, it is the process that an avoid inaccuracy decides factor actually, put the egg in many basket.
The parent expands increasingly to teaching the demand of the respect, but the competence that a lot of schools perhaps teach an orgnaization not to have independence to install all sorts of informatization establishment, also fail to have sufficient high grade natural resources on education level, need is depended on fluent say such ode that serves kind of platform can, the demand nature that serves to tripartite children education also is when the river rises the boat goes up too, this one new commerce form achieves network effect more easily also.
Meanwhile, fluent saying C upright business also wants synchronism to undertake likewise, make give a kind " two legs " the means that walk, and, the brand dominant position that end of B of have the aid of accumulates can be its technology actual strength to increase many accredit to endorse undoubtedly.
Of course, the method is very much, but also shoulder heavy responsibilities, nevertheless to fluent say, the bone that gnawing hard also gets idea to bite off, want to change oneself deficit current situation certainly, only oneself has sufficient hematopoiesis capacity, ability when the cloud of online education industry opens tomorrow cloud and mist comes loose.
