It is individual viewpoint below, content offers reference only, do not represent Chinese cotton network, do not form the investment to anybody to suggest, otherwise all consequence are assumed by the individual!
From May 15 agreement of brunt of ICE cotton futures from low 64.5 (in July 2016 since the portion new low) continuously oscillation rebounds, 28 days dish in approach 70 cent col for a time (high point 69.5) , be not worth two weeks of time to rebound extent is achieved 7.75% , the trafficker, hope that makes much fund, adventurer restores gradually, dish reason of regain of face, market.
The personage inside course of study thinks, the main reason that futures of near future ICE rebounds continuously is as follows:
It is market of near future periphery temporarily calm. Sino-US add the anxious and ceaseless dilute that asks for war of custom duty, trade to upgrade each other once more, sino-US both sides all announces to negotiate not burst, " open wide a gate " await the other side; And the beautiful Yi relation of at swords' points also alleviates somewhat; Beautiful couplet store reach monetary policy of each country Central Bank to adjust not big;
2 it is ICE dish the face is short-term suffer cotton the impact of main area, technology area is bigger. On one hand near future beautiful cotton advocate in producing area United States to get a city to reach south area experience lasts rainstorm, gale makes a surprise attack (get a state western the calamity such as area happening rainstorm, tornado, hail and fierce wind) , not only cotton cultivates plan to lag behind considerably, and very adverse to emerge; On the other hand ICE brunt was not caused in 65-67 buy dish of follow-up in great quantities (contract of ON-CALL spot price is very active also) , beautiful cotton autograph makes an appointment with exit to rebound strong, the ICE that prop up stops drop tall;
3 it is China June or cotton of 800 thousand tons of slippery accurate custom duty imports make known to lower levels quota. Although negotiate because of Sino-US commerce at a stand, the hope that beautiful cotton of year of 6-8 month 2018/19 enters Chinese market is more uncertain, but no matter Chinese industry tack makes an appointment with 2019/20 year beautiful cotton,still purchase producing area of 2018/19 year other outside cotton, pressure of supply of cotton of aggravate whole world, exciting ICE rebounds.
Business of trader of cotton of a few orgnaizations, international, import thinks, ICE builds a bottom to had ended, brunt agreement centre of gravity will go up again 70, 72, 75 wait for integral col, the wind direction of global cotton prices already transformed to bull, remind spin look forward to, middleman not " step empty " . Nevertheless, the author thinks to be in below two " landmine " before doing not have a platoon to explode, do still want discretion more, the appropriate on the operation closes into city, get better group by group.
Firstly, Sino-US commerce consults again have not plan schedule, the risk still is followed like the shadow row. If Sino-US and final reach agree and sign one paper agreement, right ICE, right commodity futures, whole world debt city nature is Jing overhead profit good, do not eliminate to go up to soare even greatly; But if really " talk about collapse " , without any room for manoeuvre, so bull 65-70 copies a bottom to be fried possibly still " the waist " ; Secondly, beautiful couplet store add breath, whether to lower interest to maintain changeless? Recently new York couplet store the president expresses, beautiful couplet store be not moved on need at present or reduce interest rate, but the evidence that he is proving near future inflation is fatigued and weak in attention, and Telangpu's president and investor are applied about what lower interest pressure still be in continuously. The analysis inside course of study, at present beautiful couplet store apt is adopted " symmetry inflation target " . Early two years, although inflation under the target (2% ) , beautiful couplet store to be on guard not like that (restrain asset bubble) also can add continuously breath, but now, although inflation is adjacent,this one manner became or more than 2% , beautiful couplet store also can cease to adding keep patient, actually this also is to covert columbine clique. (Hu Yan)
