Li Weitan presses: This heavenly body that we live tells us with the history, all dispute rise because of resource. Since be the proposition about resource, so with respect to existence sex valence comparing says. The premise condition that dark forest law establishs is the earth the resource in the universe is exclusive quality, otherwise even if is force enough style of life of the star outside invading those who cover an area of a ball exists really, also can search sexual price to compare taller " the 2nd earth " have colony.
If there are two source of waters in a forest, fawn is done not have necessary drive away small bunny to molopolize the fountainhead of bunny, because of another fountainhead enough fawn people drink -- driving away small bunny also is to should spend energy, not was necessary. It is regrettablly only in cosmic forest, we still do not know whether the earth is exclusive fountainhead up to now. Although this possibility is very little, but everybody says bad. At the same time we also do not know we are deer or bunny, more do not know to there can be big grey wolf in certain corner. Really windy.
Civil / Glenn Rocess
Interpret / bitter hill
Proofread / behead is smooth
Textual / Medium.com/@glennrocess/the-fermi-paradox-the-martian-conundrum-and-a-flaw-in-dark-forest-theory-73651558ad9d
The article is based on creation joint agreement (BY-NC) , release in Liweitan by bitter hill
The article is author point of view only, may not represents position of benefit dimension calm
Isaac Aximofu (Isaac Asimov) , Robert Haiyin Lai because (Robert Heinlein) , inferior C of · of a twenty-five-stringed plucked instrument. Carat is overcome (Arthur C.Clarke) , Frank · He Baite (Frank Herbert) and K of · of phenanthrene benefit general. Dick (Philip K.Dick) , be in finally destitute in gone, but the attract large numbers of customers that his story also became Hollywood is big.
They are the great master of novel of this one type, the giant that is sci-fi golden age (say strictly, he Baite and Dick do not belong to this one period, but they remain great master) . They are bold illusion, the imagination of extensive great is wanton gallop, show the mankind to span to us the galaxy, tomorrow that approachs to farther place. They and we share our illusion, changed our society and thinking pattern, incentive generation another acting scientist, engineer, inspired them to create American country aviation and spaceflight bureau (NASA) study committee with European nucleus (CERN) , came true again great the achievement that does not pass.
But the most glaring star in these sci-fi never has discussed H.G it seems that. Weiersi (H.G.Wells, someone call Weiersi " the father of sci-fi " ) a question that raise.
We are met later respecting this problem. Ask firmly to remember above all, how sci-fi is important to having the mankind, how life-and-death.
A lot of requisite that we have today are to those who appear is in above all in sci-fi -- arrive to drive automatically from the mobile phone car, arrive from submarine rocket, arrive from earplug type earphone nuclear energy. Inferior C of · of a twenty-five-stringed plucked instrument. Carat gram described telecommunication satellite the first times, and in the film " 2001 aerospace roam " (2001: A Space Odyssey, adapt the homonymic novel that overcomes from carat) in certain setting, can see one looks like, use the thing that also resembles IPad:
" 2001 aerospace roam " stage photo
Can say, great rate changed sci-fi our world, and basic it is the way with good day, so we should treat science fiction writer seriously... the serious question that raises with scientists. Yinmanhadu plans and reputation far raise (or say notorious) scientist Enlike Feimi (Enrico Fermi) the essence that ever used way of tongue of very few number to use up Fermi paradox: "Where is someone else? " earthly history is long be like this, the life of solar system, galaxy is more long, huang talks whole universe, we of course should can sense the radio wave that comes from other civilization (or the communication of other form) , right? Also not likely.
Dark forest law
A lot of advantage of sci-fi and tremendous possibility said above, but there also is an eccentric person in the novel, breath out Lan Ailisen for instance (Harlan Ellison) of the depict in turning over Utopian novel in that way, the monumental work that creates by Liu Cixin of late for instance again " 3 body " trilogy, this his work is mixed in deepness, range imagination level but with Aximofu " base " series compares a shoulder.
In Liu Cixin's trilogy, he described dark forest rule with the logic of be terrified making a person, this law thinks, we had better hope oneself forever, do not encounter any extraterrestrials forever. This one theory is probably such:
·All life long to live.
·You are unintelligible other life form allows to fall in the condition whether, can deny destroy you.
·Below the circumstance that assures in lack, the safest to any species options is each other is killed before other life form has an opportunity to eliminate his.
In trilogy, liu Cixin depicted a such galaxies: Here, once a certain civilization that can have astronavigation diagnosed another civilization, can go all lengths, none softhearted ground destroys the other side, in order to ensure of oneself put add; After all, have not has had any evidence prooves, even if just consider peace to coexist a little,astral species is met outside.
Did not forget, our mankind perhaps has morality and principle, clear perhaps what calls mutually beneficial mutual benefit, but this does not mean other species as much such. If we meet a culture, believe coexistence because of oneself next and do not destroy it instantly, then we are to be in those who use human oneself to live or die really will bet the other side to won't be in eliminate us for a short while whole species.
Fortunately, there is a flaw in this logic.
Dark forest law and David Bulin of science fiction writer (David Brin) inchoate discuss " big silent " (Great Silence) an article happens to have the same view, "Big silent " it is to point to the evidence of existence of the life outside appearing to be able to not prove the land completely. Cloth forest elaborated a likelihood to cause big a few kinds of silent reasons, with Liu Cixin, he mentions among them a kind of hypothesis is, we never receive the civilized message outside getting the ground, because,be for the civilization to can undertaking astronavigation, the only way that avoids to be eliminated maintains forever namely concealment, do not let other civilization diagnose his.
But still have a factor, from H.G. Weiersi alludes first up to now, had mentioned without the 2nd person it seems that.
Martian difficult problem
1938, young actor abstruse Sen Weiersi (Orson Welles) had mixed in broadcast drama, the living theatre because of its the show on screen is little famous gas, he advocate sowed first gear name to be " world war " (War Of The Worlds) broadcast drama. My grandmother still remembers this files theatrical work, she tells me some audience give birth to panic because of gut heart at that time, the Mississippi delta area that lives in her repeatedly also is such.
I have the special of this files theatrical work, although the majority of the story by abstruse Sen Weiersi is deduced freely, gut itself and H.G. Photograph of fiction the plot of a play changes than doing not have essence however: Martian came, martian conquered the earth, martian is without resistance to tellurian pathogen, martian was annihilated by pathogen.
Abstruse Sen Weiersi (Orson Welles) 1938 advocate sowed broadcast drama caused panic inside countrywide limits. Graph source: Pacific Standard
Is this possible? I write down so that I think of in those days: Was gotten, if Martian is clever,arrive capable to provide enough force of arm, span an interstellar conquer is whole the earth, they also can make good preventive measure ahead of schedule for certain, avoid to be affected by our bacterium, right? This gut flaw lets a Bo Luotan overcome to enough greatly [translator notes: Bolo, jisi Laomo of writer of out science fiction (Keith Laumer) the homonymic series novel of creation, told about a kind of super tank " Bo Luo " the developmental phylogeny in as lengthy as the extraterrestrial war process, stalk is harder] open the past!
I remember, so old in, when I read other sci-fi, ever generated this question repeatedly. The star of these sci-fi people (besides H.G. Weiersiben person) how did meeting all ignore this? Be because is human solid some proud,? Still say this just stems from simple practical consideration? After all, when if the author is in,writing sci-fi, always should notice to allow a part people wear sealed space navigation to take ability to set foot on new planet, so writing is in originally Alajisi (translator notes: Arrakis, out " dune " ) , Datuyin (translator notes: Tatooine, out " strategic defense initiative " ) or Wo Kenxing ball (translator notes: Vulcan, out " interstellar get lost " ) expeditionary novel is more troublesome -- should not say to settle more be there.
Graph source: Discover Magazine Blogs
And real case is similar absolutely. Opportunity of survival of our earth of parent heavenly body flourishingly, have life everywhere, sol is enraged to biology on (those who live in aerosphere is microbial) , the lithosphere is reached below hundreds meters in, even comes greatly what mantle discovers in in-house bore example is microbial, still have every corner among.
Change character, even if the extraterrestrial comes to the earth, eliminated earthly surface tiny all biology to the bacterium, actually, they destroy tellurian impossibly still all native land life... this is meant, the countless microbial, bacteria that unless this group of extraterrestrials can use some kind of method to make sure he are right,evolution of move, hour exists to wear on the earth and virus all immunity, otherwise any serious colonial attempts are met necessarily make a futile effort.
Can affirm almost (the gut flaw that before resembling me, mentions in that way) , if a civilization can span the planetary border of length and breadth of land or interstellar space, it realizes early for certain, if there has been life to exist on some planet, try this heavenly body wastes colony greatly namely time and resource.
H.G. In Weiersi's novel, martian paid bitter cost to get this lesson. We are inferior to call it " Martian difficult problem " (The Martian Conundrum) .
The meaning with expeditionary universe
Graph source: National Geographic
Martian difficult problem does not deny thoroughly dark forest law, because (I am conjectural) probably still can a few want to live the civilization that go down believes, maintaining ego to put the optimal way of add is the other culture that eradicates all encountering. The true meaning of Martian difficult problem is, restrict further to may be being added by colonial planet. To the mankind, limit a condition partly among them (not be all) be:
·The planet must be located in comfortable house to take (Goldilocks Zone) inside, this is a distance the star that this planet place surrounds is not quite close not quite far also appropriate ranks a region, water of concessional liquid state retains the exterior temperature ability that has such planets only in.
·The planet must |contain a lot of oxygen and water, the gas mixture that aerosphere can get used to by human body is comprised, may adjust to such gas mixture. On this foundation, oxygen content also must not pass high nevertheless already low, azotic content must be inside acceptable range, etc.
·The planet must surround a steady sidereal movement. For example, near neighbour star(Proxima Centauri, the star with space the closest solar system)It is a red dwarf, there is a planet at least apparently inside its comfortable house band, but be in last year, near neighbour star released the solar flare that enough goes to from earthly binoculars observation. This reduced us greatly the possibility of colonial inside this galaxy planet.
·Inside the radiation limits that planetary system cannot be in other celestial or heavenly body certainly, be like not neutron star, magnetism star, stable star, and even black hole(the material that falling into the black hole can release radiation).
Graph source: Metro
On above limitation, the conclusion that rejoin rolls out by Martian difficult problem:
·The planet must do not have any life. Thoroughly, go out of cultivation out and out... but, must have water and acceptability air of course.
Captain of gram stalking or branch (Captain Kirk) girl of the star outside thinking those who differ to in every interstellar haven meets unexpectedly is afraid of is to did not make fun of.
Captain of gram stalking or branch...
This does not mean the mankind to be in interstellar open a branch to come loose hope all of the leaf changed a plan. But it is meant, the planetary scale that satisfies afore-mentioned requirements really very small. Fortunately, there is 2 in the galaxy, 500 (± 1, 500) 100 million star. Can affirm basically, distance has other appropriate to reside a planet to await us to arrive at.
Unfortunate is, planet (and other all precious things are same) the iron rule of supply demand relations of be enslaved to be enslaved to: Each civilized metropolis that can undertake astronavigation is conceivable these appropriate that have pity on less reside a planet. Of course, those who suit the mankind to live is not certain suit other cross interstellar species to live... but if have another species,searching same kind of planet, so an extinct battle is not had can avoid.
Such future makes person sincerity awe-stricken, it raised the possibility of dark forest law it seems that.
Glass already half full
All previous classics eradicates earthly biosphere several times greatly. After every time is eradicated greatly, the time of thousands of all ages goes, eradicate advent greatly the next time. Eradicate twice every greatly between the opportunity that is life evolution prosperity not only, it is intelligent life grows more, the scope that civilized oneself expands. Be known with respect to us, in the earth in history of 5 billion years, count recently only year just had been born civilized -- the kongfu that blinks namely this pair of earths. Was born in those on the planet of life, can conclude by earthly experience a the following:
·Life may be born, but likely also forever cannot evolution arrives over one-celled phase.
·Multicellular organism(or big cell biology)The likelihood is born, but the likelihood cannot become enough forever the consciousness with motor-driven, enough generation, for example we classify the plant in the system.
·Life style may be developmental to can mobile, have self-awareness, but the likelihood cannot learn to use a tool forever. For example, more and more evidence make clear, if the mirror checks (Mirror Test) the result is accurate, quite a few animals(and even the insect)Have self-awareness. But shift of life physical ability, have self-awareness and do not mean it to think to need uses a tool oneself.
·Life style may be developmental to can mobile, have self-awareness, can use a tool, but the planetary surface that this does not mean them to be able to want to leave this one day. Fly to star to this idea itself looks may troublesome in them and be without a meaning.
Graph source: The Angry Ufologist
From above these conclude can push further again derive, great majority (or all) be pregnant with the planet of life can happen periodic eradicate greatly, intelligent life and civilized occurrence are very infrequent (the civilization of the aerospace outside those still including to break through heavenly body bounds to explore innocently inside this) .
the civilization that although yearn for to those,flies to star, more and more people think they must span successfully above all " serious offence colander " level (The Great Filter) , this one phase may challenge composition by several, include resource the dried up, internal dispute, zoology that brings about by biology diversity lack breaks down etc.
Then, the life that can break through confine of parent heavenly body is the most infrequent. Go up with respect to the earth only from ancient the millions that has existed up to now (billions of? ) species, wisdom person is only at present capable to undertake astronavigation... and all these happens in past number chiliad only, passing from the point of geological level is the brief an instant in long time.
If be in,exceed imaginary length and breadth of land is interstellar in the universe, this kind of life is so infrequent, if can undertake the astronavigation, intelligence life that still hopes all previous alls over galaxy is had pity on less not only, still appear in the one very short time of endless and geological history only, so carry vast and mighty main forces will eliminate the mankind, filch the resource of our heavenly body, still take away our precious and humoral extraterrestrial to still did not show a body up to now, undeserved open-eyed.
Right, the likelihood is put in the civilization of an exceeding long life, but if 20 centuries church our what, that is technical level is amounted to even more, knowledge and understanding are added fast faster, conversely the technology progresses more quickly. If a civilization can have built an interstellar empire, unless have what reason (for instance, some kind of resource that Caesarean Lai Yiwei fastens disappears suddenly, picture " dune " in series " flavor " ) bring about Caesarean backwater or break down, otherwise Caesarean technical level can progress more and more quickly only.
Is the technology developmental to what degree? Where is the limit that the technology progresses? Is there the limit? Reached such arrangement when a certain civilization, what is be apart from its ancestor to look up at the night sky, spot that twinkles questioningly after all, how long to go again? If will look with human experience, on cosmic measure, from discovery fire fills period to interstellar and Caesarean vessel (everything after mixing) need far from how long.
So, what we want fear is not existence other the species that can build interstellar civilization, they pursue dark forest law, search the planet of same kind with our mankind. What we want fear exclusively is a such civilization and galaxy of our body part is same an arm coming back, and this is in likewise of endless universe history flashy li of civilization that grow, with us this still is in budding period interstellar civilization is in same development level.
Accordingly, have the reason in view of above, let us do not want those letting that we are scared to pass much wait for information the person of the endless long night of dark forest, however [apply mechanically Buddhist nun Ke Furui (Nick Fury) be in " avenger is allied 1 " medium actor's lines] , be less than the mankind terminative that momently, we get ceaseless progress, multiply haunt.
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