"Canary " situation is serious: Korea exit dropped in June continuously, chip steeps fall 3 into

[civil / observer net Xu Qianang]

Korea today (on June 1) publish data of newest foreign trade, this country " economy hurts forcedly " did not get alleviating: Up to in May, korea exit forehead is recorded continuously 6 months drop, among them semiconductor exported the forehead to steep fall compared to the same period in May 3 into.

Korea economy, as a result of sense of index of go ahead of the rest is had to global economy since its are long-term, and be called " canary " . And once Korea economy glides, so mean the whole world to may face a decline even the crisis.

Ministry of resource of Korea industry have trade relations announces data to show, forehead of exit of the month on Korea drops compared to the same period 9.4% , performance is poor hereat before the fall that analyst of Peng Bo company anticipates 6.6% , also be inferior to Reuter beforehand of appraise drop 5.6% . This also indicates exit forehead records a Korea continuously 6 months drop.

Korea imported the forehead to drop compared to the same period in May 1.9% , grow 0.5% compared to the same period under what anticipate likewise.

Peng rich company points out, foreign trade exit occupies Korea economy proportion to be as high as 50% to control, among them semiconductor exports the forehead to occupy Korea to export the specified number again 25% the left and right sides. And the Korea semiconductor that with SamSung electron, SK Hailishi presents as leading role exports main forces, lunar exit forehead steeps fall compared to the same period on 30.5% .

Annulus of Korea quarter GDP is compared add fast (grey) contrast compared to the same period with forehead of Korea quarter exit (red) graph from Peng Bo company

Korea published data on April 25, GDP annulus compares this country first quarter atrophic 0.3% , far inadequacy anticipates, since achieving financial crisis at the same time the poorest performance. Korea Central Bank says at that time, exit is fatigued and weak, it is economy adds this country as before fast the main reason that puts delay continuously. And observer net ever was at the beginning of April report, regard the two big pillar of this country as the industry, semiconductor of Korea much home and Motor Corporation achievement is gloomy first quarter. Semiconductor exported Korea in March the forehead steeps fall compared to the same period 16.6% .

This also imply Korea " economy is hurt forcedly " do not have alleviation. With respect to this exit glided in June continuously, official of minister of resources of Korea industry have trade relations shows now into allow model, global trade friction is deepened and " take off Europe " brings uncertainty, to Korea exit was caused " negative effect " .

Whether can exit of Korea of second half of the year improve somewhat? Korea NH invests negotiable securities analyst to think, korea exit forehead will be recorded so that glide compared to the same period 2019 2.5% ; Korea semiconductor industry anabiosises also get the earliest when this year 3 quarters.

Intense of Li Zhu of president of Korea Central Bank expresses yesterday hopeful, say Korea of second half of the year exports a circumstance to be able to improve somewhat, but the uncertainty that he also emphasized international economy lasting. Korea Central Bank announced to keep the standard interest rate of 1.75% that day changeless.

Nevertheless, with respect to expression of Korea economy whole character, korea Central Bank is in in January will GDP increase rate anticipates this year from former 2.7% reduce to 2.6% , reduced once more in April to 2.5% . Peng rich company thinks today, in view of the international trade condition nowadays, korea GDP should reduce 0.2 percent possibly this year once more.