Recently about building city message, special interest explodes.
As foreign trade environment of China produced great change May, the method of Chinese firm economy came on stage in succession. Head send its to rush, it is certain room price.
[1]
Tool of price of Chinese certain room is numerous
Cancelling to be restricted to buy will be final step
Since economic job conference puts forward in the center of last year " 6 firm " , with respect to sufficient specification centrally high level had seen in international sophisticated topological features falls, pressure of economic be issued to lower levels and house price wave motion can happen likely.
But from look at present, the stable question of price of house of Chinese building town is not big, the element that basically is based on two levels will judge:
The demand that the first level basically is Chinese building city still is compared exuberant, basic dish without the change, the city is changed rate increase a percent every year even at least, create the housing demand of at least 15 million person.
The lever bar rate that is Chinese dweller additionally was in probably 2018 50% the left and right sides, 50% what want the debt ratio of family of dweller of China of that is to say to hold gross earnings probably.
The mainstream nation posture of this level and whole world is compared, still compare on the low side: From next graphs we can see, the rate of dweller lever bar of Euramerican country is in basically 60% above.
The dweller leverage that waits for 3 Euramerican countries like Switzerland, Denmark, Australia is in unexpectedly 100% above, consumption lending money has become country of world main stream to develop core method of economy.
The 2nd level, the tool that we think Chinese government stabilizes room value at present is more still. Since 2016 of open new since adjusting control of round of estate, china laid in tool of many certain room price.
Cancel to be restricted to borrow for instance, reduce head pay, reduce a room to borrow the financial measure such as interest rate; Cancel price fixing for instance again, cancel to be restricted to buy wait for administrative measure; Drop the finance measure such as tax cost for instance.
Once above method is used together, chinese house price is sure soare again. But this lives not to fry the old policy phase that reachs certain room price to violate with eye anteroom apparently, the possibility that because this is many,the tool uses at the same time is inferior.
Be less than be forced to do for example, china won't be started easily direct " cancel to be restricted to buy " the final step of price of this certain room.
But if be in certain phase, internal economy reachs the evidence that building city appeared to fluctuate, china can adopt certain assorted measure to undertake protective, promote the stability of economy and building city.
For instance of this Beijing " land cancels price fixing " loosen greatly with collective of settle of city of new a gleam of, extremely possible meeting drives area building city to enter balmy weather in the tenth lunar month.
[1]
Beijing land is extensive not price fixing
Flour begins expensive at biscuit
Beijing since the end of the year was rolled out 2016 " be restricted contest room " plot policy, the requirement is restricted every pieces contest room lot should restrict top price to reach be restricted to make work 5 years.
Be restricted contest room lot, should saying is Beijing carries out " the house lives not to fry " most the method of core: Controlled house price to rise not only, with time limit carry out is brought about 5 years cannot fry a room.
But since began 2019, beijing appeared to loosen: On January 9, beijing rolls out Sun He first two not price fixing residence uses the land; On May 23, beijing rolls out two again not price fixing plot and premonitory together not price fixing plot.
The awfullest is, on May 28 Sun He not price fixing plot undertakes auctioning, constant radical real estate is final with floor price 70000 every made the same score rice to take this lot: More circumjacent price fixing the price of 68000, sun He plot entered flour expensive the situation at biscuit.
Once inside area " the price of flour is expensive at biscuit " , affirmative meeting drives area sale, help high area at the same time secondhand house price: Especially to Beijing this is planted the city, affecting house price to anticipate is crucial.
Beijing cancels the backside of land price fixing, reach with pressure of Beijing overall finance for certain be restricted difficulty of contest room sale increases be closely bound up: Beijing sold the ground income 2018 only 1680 100 million, dropped compared to the same period 40% , beijing of of the same age is restricted contest room lot makes an appointment with scale only 20%-30% .
2019 two meetings, beijing finance director is direct " go about telling people how hard up one is " : Beijing finance income added speak bluntly 2019 fast likelihood will drop 4% , than 2018 of 6.4% add fast even low.
But each Beijing spending is massive 2019, 70 years of Daqing, one belt all the way peak the national level conference such as the meeting is numerous, core area is retreated hire, the 3rd period the project of office of national heavy greater part such as program traffic construction.
Beijing city progress wants to leave estate, be difficult! Land price fixing had arrived to be not untie a person cannot level, it is very difficult that the prices that Beijing house price rises again in second half of the year is afraid avoid.
[2]
Allow old untie a person of collective of settle of city of a gleam of
Grab a person to upgrade, ready to do sth of building city prices
Remove besides Beijing land price fixing, the near future still appeared a tremendous change: That allows settle of city of a gleam of to begin occurrence collective old untie a person namely.
On May 28, tianjin seaside appears " Haihe River talent plans " adjust plan, although will be deleted next, but the near future announces is final almost: Undergraduate course is OK settle, check social security and requirement to offer obtain employment proof no longer at the same time.
On May 29, zhejiang Hangzhou also reduces talent settle threshold: Want a specialized subject to graduate only + social security of a month, OK settle Hangzhou.
On May 30, chongqing releases new settle new politics: Want a specialized subject only, do not need social security, OK settle Chongqing.
Exceed even what allow a gleam of big oversize city such " abysmal line " unlock settle doorsill, be afraid from the back will have more cities will very fast " attend a war " : A national war that grab a person is sure upgrade.
Suffer the Langfang that fix eyes upon fully " annulus Beijing 9 cities " predict to will announce settle July new politics policy: Master's degree does not have doorsill settle for certain, undergraduate course and specialized subject are met likely condition of set Beijing social security.
Once allow city of a gleam of to grab a person to upgrade in the round, our judgement is in prospective half an year, big probability of city of building of accurate a gleam of can greet new round small prices: Basis before experience, unlock settle substantially, region house price can be in what there is 20%-30% at least in half an year to go up.
Resemble what Xi'an does not have a bottom line this kind unlocking, house price soares range is bigger.
But as population settle increasing, house price can rise after half an year a new height, meet next smooth: This is population bonus short-term the short-term effect that erupts to urban house price to bring, we are what it says " bonus of half an year " .
Because this looks integratedly, as the concussion of external environment, china begins to enable certain tool combination to achieve the goal of certain room price on building city stability, especially " cancel price fixing + settle limitation cancels " will drive city of prospective China building to enter extra dividend of half an year period.
We take the hopeful attitude with situation bigger hold to price of house of China of prospective half an year, appeared especially large-scale the city that unlocks settle.
[club lecture is premonitory: Small on June 3 believe group of special subject lectures: The Chinese building city below Sino-US relation and north 3 counties foreground]
