Article Piao child wood

Change from Chinese first time room probably begin, " the house can invest " become folk most get the topic of controversy.

You can discover, this topic every other can be taken for some time heat is fried one time, and attention spends a bit to be not decreased.

Have so fresh vitality, it is firm need and invest a guest all the time extreme misery nots allow, stick to his argument with what come or fry to the house. 2 if prospective house cannot invest,be, it what thing that China still has is OK that what thing that China still has antagonism inflation? This results from again the angst that common people invests channel to protecting fortune to lack.

This not, a storm was raised again on the net recently, say after 2019, the investment value of the house is basically 0.

This topic uses the angle such as the history, economy, population before me had discussed, but I think to still be necessary to be a basis with the thing that produces one year on the market recently, help great master reductive the truth of backside.

1

Adj

Above all we use adj thinking, will be anatomized " value of prospective house investment is 0 " the main basis of this conclusion.

Macroscopical see a currency, near future Central Bank tightens up monetary policy, mean the capital that spreads estate little, house price rises impossibly again; Policy is viewed in, more raise the quota published adjusting control policy in April, policy is not loosened, house price rises not to rise; Microcosmic see lever, dweller leverage is at present high look forward to, the person that buys a house is indebted and too much, buy room desire less also, the house does not have investment sex.

So is the fact such? These 3 basises whether can Where is hold water? In light of our one by one.

1, near future Central Bank tightens up monetary policy

The money April is constrictive really, data is propped up, this bit is beyond question. But does this meeting prove next is monetary policy still constrictive? May not.

Why did the money want in April constrictive, because,be 2019 monetary supply exceeded first quarter anticipate. Data shows, inflationary rate is first quarter 2.1% , GDP name is added fast be 8.5% , but M2 (money) add fast, achieved March 8.6% . The name of GDP of M2 prep above is added fast, this attributes a currency comfortable, to instantly economy development is insalubrious. Wanted to adjust April so, make M2 new return nominal GDP lower part.

And this year no matter be on size conference, the Central Bank is emphasizing all the time, want to hold to firm monetary policy. He Wei is dovish, it is M2 is added fast be equal to nominal GDP add fast, can assure the monetary stimulation to civilian battalion economy already so, can be on guard effectively again the adverse effect that excessive money supplies pair of other markets.

And prospective monetary policy, be in to the action of estate market progressively and abate. Before unlike, once the money is supplied abundant, flowed to estate basically, and now is severe accuse capital to flow to development business, it is forbidden enterprise buys a house, it is right the individual buys a room to increase strength of examine and verify. A variety of measure are opposite in money of keep within limits the immediate impact of estate. So with the money temporarily the rise and fall that the trend regards judgement as estate, slant for weakness.

2, estate continues to father accuse

The article says near future each district is in again publish policy to father control estate, policy does not loosen the pretext that house price did not rise.

For example Suzhou of net red city, upgraded to be restricted to make work to the city such as your Shenzhen, Hefei, Qingdao tightens up a room to borrow or go up tone room borrows the city such as interest rate Xi'an, Zhengzhou to restrict accumulation fund to buy a room to live build a ministry to call-over early-warning 10 cities, stress adjusting control policy won't untie a person

If be with this exemple, say instantly whole nation is in severe control estate, some are one-sided. Because of the near future we still see:

Zhuhai was loosened be restricted to buy Hangzhou three-year institution of higher learning can settle bought landlord Guan to adjust trade a duty Fosan, mound the city such as this world cancels price fixing many cities grab battle of National People's Congress like a raging fire

Former it is ice, latter is fire, instantly market can use glacial internal heat only double day will describe, and associated sex is without between these cities, both neither can say adjusting control is tightened up is big trend, also cannot saying to loosen is big trend, can prove current building city is differentiation market only, going in carry out " because the city uses strategy " the strategy just. And want to know, of adjusting control policy is at all " price of house of keep within limits rises too quickly " , hit the price that control a house by no means.

3, dweller leverage

Raise leverage of daily life civilian, let me remember Chinese building city " helix ascendant theory " , in this theory,

Finance adds lever, the place is leasehold, the foundation is built, estate is developed, estate adds lever, transfer to the dweller, dweller income rises, dweller oneself lever is reduced, estate bubble disappears.

Say Chinese building town ten years this so rising is with the dweller income rises be synchronism, and fall in financial policy, this is bubble of a distend, fill bubble again however true course. In this process, dweller leverage rose to urge economic progress and the action that the society progresses.

China's current dweller leverage is 54.28% , opposite at the United States 79% , these 88% developed countries come to England tell, we are in low, opposite at the developing country we are in front row. But differentiate according to ours, be told from the dweller relative to the absolute value of higher savings ratio, our liquidity is at present higher, this leverage still has certain space.

As to next dweller leverage can fall, still must take a fancy to a country next whether can economic growth let dweller income rise. On this level, I or very be certain.

After all our economy can be in short a few the year's harvest are the whole world the 2nd, this is not accidental. We have tremendous inside need the market, the population base of grand quantity, high-speed town changes construction rate, the economy that these elements can drive the next completely 10 years grows.

Can say leverage of near future dweller is benefit sky to house price only, but a few years to pass? Estate investment can not be short enter short the business that give.

2

Two problems

Actually no matter macroscopical in view is microcosmic still, want to see the short-term trend of clear China estate, want to clear up a few problems above all.

1, be house price can fall large-scaly above all?

Do not know everybody has discovery, close paragraph dozen of dimension authority event that breaks selling office or selling office to play a banner appears rarely on time net, why? Because Indian summer market trades,be the quantity is climbed rise, price of major city house stops drop rebounded.

All the time since, house price rose, everybody is met shout abuses in the street, but if house price fell, everybody can start work, ministry of carry out building just depreciated, broke ministry of carry out building. If house price of the whole nation wants to fall, who should break again?

Can affirm so, house price is to cannot fall too much, because at present value of Chinese house property takes a family 62% of total money, and Chinese main city is depended on to land financial degree still maintain in 30% above, grow for stability and economy, house price can live firmly only.

Review estate phylogeny, expression is the cardinal principle of house price trend in the past " step type rises " . And instantly this phase was to just went up the initial stage of a new chance to extricateoneself from an awkward position. When to jump as to next step, extent has how old, see a countryman even of indebted rate go turning a case.

2, be estate market can stop next?

The answer is very simple, at present level is unallowed. Because of the house, and kinds of big eye that household of consumption of implicative home appliance, furniture consumes estate is Chinese spending market, it is the main component that economy grows.

Still have 500 million person according to statistical China trashy cross closestool, so how to let them consume closestool? Can let them buy a house only. And quicken town to change construction level just about now, a lot of cities build new developed area to do capital construction form a complete set to need financial capacity, from where does this part financial capacity go out?

Integrated above two reasons, below good case, price need maintains the room to go up in a reasonable delay inside interval. Of course this is spent hold very hard, because dropped to have a risk, horizontal dish just needed not to buy sheet, it is easy still to go up more incur spec guest, ecbolic asset bubble. The pressure of adjusting control of visible instantly estate is tremendous.

Then we saw the central one knife before abandoning thoroughly cuts a way, begin from microcosmic proceed with, increase red line to urban set, make a place own adjusting control market: Dropped to let loosen to the space, go up more to start ask duty mechanism, requirement house price is answered firm.

Want town to change construction to still be on the road only, want population only flow still is gathering, house price can rise, the investment attribute of the house exists forever.

3

Change

The investment that I tell everybody prospective estate investment is very good still with controversy law tastes above, but before proving, the rule of estate still applies to future.

I once had said, 2018 is the historic turning point of Chinese estate, it is the dividing line dot of fluctuation half of a game or contest. So the estate market 2019 produced what change after all, and what do these changes have to affect again to us? We must understand this.

I think to be divided probably for two respects.

The money of 1. estate is so not good earned

This behavior from land agent near future can see. Begin from 2018, we discovered a very important thing, it is estate before the glow that creates a building to sell a house to land development is inferior to greatly. Green jade for example Gui Yuan begins robot of research and development of distribution science and technology, 10 thousand amount to begin to do article brigade to do a football, constant begins to do motor-car of report of the sources of energy to invest future greatly...

Incognito incognito, the diversity of diversity, room look forward to people behavior proves estate this industry already awn of shade of come out gold, fall into silver times. The estate that be the same as manage invests, the so high return rate before wanting to get 20 years, it is very difficult. The step that place of prospective house price jumps may be a few smaller, a few slower.

2. house price began to split up quickly

Before paragraph time hair changes appoint announce " big in the city should unlock census register system " , plus the 2nd grabs battle of National People's Congress this year, even population flows into the Shenzhen with huge amount to begin to grab a person...

A variety of phenomena prove, prospective population will flow quickly, immediate result is house price synchronism quicken differentiation, population flows into generous city and population to pour out of generous city to present two extremes. Those have valence not to have the city of city, expose an impression quickly, if supply is far,be more than demand, house over population, house price can produce trample effect.

Go up in house property investment of future so, all cities can have get one's own back be not, must choose good city, it is return rate not simply otherwise for 0, dead loss of probable bedding bag.

The city should be bought as to what, what city ought not to be bought, I had been carried in the article before, everybody can break up.