Data chart
Data chart
Data chart
Data chart
The course is changed in Chinese city in, estate develops ceaselessly expand, estate development investment occupies whole society fixed assets to invest specific gravity to be in all the time since 2000 15% above. " Chinese city competition ability reports the 17th times (the theme reports) " show, estate grew to macroscopical economy 2018 to pull move effect occurrence inflection point. Estate market is put in price bubble risk and structural sex risk, although in recent years estate goes stock result is remarkable, but appeared to rebound recently symptom. Estate banking venture is being accumulated quickly, but overall can accuse. House price is put in dual impact to company liquidity risk, partial province is put in bigger company liquidity risk.
One, housing development and steady growth existence pour U to concern
The course is changed in Chinese city in, estate develops ceaselessly expand, estate development investment occupies whole society fixed assets to invest specific gravity to be in all the time since 2000 15% above. Spend from the contribution that increases to economy in light of, the result shows, came 2000 although existence is fluctuant,the contribution that estate development investment increases to economy during 2013 is spent, but will be maintained basically for years in 10% above, so the contribution that whether can we reach estate grows to Chinese economy accordingly still very important Where is this one conclusion? We think this may mask the actual contribution that estate increases to economy, did not consider estate to ring to the negative Xiang Ying of other industry especially, the contribution that causes overmeasure estate to grow to economy thereby is spent.
The influence presence that estate increases to economy pours U to concern. Estate increases presence to economy to pull move effect and negative to squeeze an effect. When house price level is inferior, estate grows to economy to pull move effect to be lost more than to squeeze an effect, right now the development of estate is helpful for economic growth; When house price level is exorbitant, what estate grows to economy is negative to squeeze an effect to will exceed to pull touch effect, right now the development of estate will go against economic growth. Accordingly, the part that in be necessary to inspect estate to grow in economy in the round, acts.
Estate grew to macroscopical economy 2018 to pull move effect occurrence inflection point. This report is based on tracked investigation to law court of the state in 2016 2010 data and came 2003 2015 data of 285 cities of Chinese, used the method such as metric regression integratedly to calculate estate to grow to economy to pull move effect and negative to squeeze an effect. Consider to discover, estate is lost to economic growth exceed to effect comparing to the income of critical house value of effect for 9. Calculate a result to show, rise as what house value income compares, estate grows to economy to pull touch effect ceaseless decrescent, negative to squeeze an effect to increase ceaselessly, income comparing is the house price that inflection point manages 9 the left and right sides. That is to say, after when house price income comparing exceeds 9, the influence that estate increases to economy will the loss outweights the gain.
House price was in Chinese city to losing the inflection point level to effect to go up more than to effect 2018. According to Chinese commodity house is average 2018 sale price will calculate, income of Chinese house value was compared 2018 for 9.3, just exceeded inflection point 9, if price of house of prospective China town continues to rise,this is meant, what estate grows to economy is negative will exceed to effect to effect. From the point of different city, income compares the price of house of town of major second line such as the city of a gleam of such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen and Xiamen, Fuzhou, Hangzhou, Zhuhai, Tianjin to had exceeded 9 this one critical point, what afore-mentioned urban estate grow to economy is negative had exceeded to effect to effect. Compare exorbitant city to house value income, in maintain estate market while smooth health develops, should cogent raise a dweller to be able to control income, let income run price winning a room, it is house value income than maintaining inside reasonable interval.
(write: Ma Hongfu of Cao clear peak)
2, housing development and tone structure presence pour U to concern
In recent years, chinese economy estate is changed increasingly apparent. On one hand, one part comparatived to flow into real-estate industry in social capital and bank loan, released 2019 according to the Central Bank " orgnaization loan cast finance to report to statistic 2018 " show, 2018 end, remaining sum of RMB real-estate loan 38.7 trillion yuan, grow 20% compared to the same period, annual increases 6.45 trillion yuan, hold the corresponding period 39.9% of each loan increment, estate develops loan remaining sum 10.19 trillion yuan, grow 22.6% compared to the same period, the year end on increasing ratio is 5.5 high percent. On the other hand, since 2018, manufacturing industry enterprise is faced domestic and international the tall redound of grim economic situation, estate and the uncertainty that manufacturing industry develops, investment estate makes fundamental choice.
Estate and industrial structure are existing to pour U to concern. The sequential clearly of this kind of influence, above all, the enterprise can be final between productivity investment and nonproductive investment balance, in investing more resource estate to invest sexual capital, manage to find time productivity investment and innovation sex investment, form configuration effect. In the meantime, inefficient hypostatic generator will because cannot the element cost that the burden promotes, increase estate to invest specific gravity gradually, exit hypostatic economy production finally, remain efficiency taller generator stays inside hypostatic economy, form choose effect.
This report chooses to use mixed to price of house of town of the whole nation between 2016 2004 house price increases rate (assign value of room of market of overall house price and house) the effect that measures estate development, the innovation element that the differently interval in corresponding a particular year makes over number to be a delegate with patent, enter the complete element productivity that exits a business, appear on the market the diversity of the company manages water equality. Analyse discovery through using a variety of metric methods, rise as house price, the industry is put in 3 kinds to develop way, migratory, diversity and upgrade, the method motive that 3 industries upgrade is different, create overall house price and industrial structure pour U relation.
Result of a case of a physically strong patient running a high fever or suffering from such disorders as stasis of blood discovers, on microcosmic level, add in house price fast faster city, the productivity that enters enterprise and keep business is met taller, say clear solid existence chooses effect, namely " house price pushs a production " , in the meantime, house price appears to the productivity of afore-mentioned company businesses and diversity nonlinear influence, pour U curve relation namely, house price produces efficiency and inflection point of integrated development existence to the enterprise.
It is with complete element productivity exemple, the level that through inspecting each city nearly 5 years to come place of price of house of house of average commodity room reachs, the room value that discovers major city is added fast already broke through inflection point, the complete element productivity that causes local company probably drops. Accordingly, estate policy of future should be on the foundation of stable house price, guide manufacturing industry to the industry is optimized and upgrade selectively.
From this not difficult beforehand the estate policy that appraise is aimed at industrial structure next. Above all, the aspect is changed in the industry, should according to industrial feature, equitable distribution industry distributings. Next, in industrial diversity respect, should endeavor to make specialization industrial group. Finally, should make the industry between the city upgrade the current mechanism of relevant element, let enterprise of patent, talent, innovation can be on the move freely between different city. The course pushs afore-mentioned policy, in the old structure that hopeful brings into house price market adjustment element to flow, through house price the company between stimulative area divides the work, realize reasonable diversity, promote enterprise innovation development finally.
(write: Li Qihang)
3, housing development has double effect to windbreak danger
The risk that estate place involves basically includes risk of estate market oneself, estate the venture of local government finance related relevant financial venture and estate.
(one) risk of bubble of price of estate market presence and structural sex risk, although in recent years estate goes stock result is remarkable, but appeared to rebound recently symptom
The first, look from house value income than angle, the house value income of Chinese main city is mainer than Yuan Chao international city level, evidence of bubble of occurrence house price. In the city in before income of global house value compares a rank 10, chinese city holds 8 seat, in before house value income compares a rank 20 city, chinese city holds 16 seat, in before house value income compares a rank 40 city, chinese city holds 20 seat in all. Among them, the house value income of Beijing, Shenzhen, Shanghai compares before ranking domestic and international main city 3.
The 2nd, go changing from inventory in light of periodic angle, exorbitant stock goes changing periodic problem to had gotten alleviating apparently, but have the risk that rebounds again. Begin from 2011, the stock of Chinese estate market goes changing cycle to rise ceaselessly, estate stock goes changing cycle to rise to 20.96 months 2015 by 9.28 months 2011. Later, accompanying go the be born of inventory policy, stock of Chinese estate market goes changing cycle to begin to tend drop, drop quickly by 20.96 months of apogee 11.58 months 2017, regain reasonable level basically, but the stock 2018 goes changing cycle to rise somewhat again.
The 3rd, estate market is put in structural sex risk, aggravate of become divided of price of house of town of different layer class. 2001, the score of house value income of 34 lines city fastens just a little is 9.65, 7.42, 5.82, 5.78, the score of house value income of 34 lines city was not just a little 2016 16.18, 7.13, 5.29, 4.87.
(2) estate banking venture is being accumulated quickly, but overall can accuse
The first, the estate banking venture of dweller branch is rising, but have not appear big financial risk. With respect to individual housing loan remaining sum reachs his compared to the same period increase rate, come from June 2006 in December 2018 portion, remaining sum of individual housing loan is jumped by 2.1 trillion yuan 25.8 trillion yuan, rose 11 times. But, compare with international level, the indebted rate of Chinese dweller branch is relatively inferior, have not appear big financial risk. Up to 2017 end, in system of world main economy, dweller branch leverage of China ranks 8, under develop the average of economic system (76.1% ) with international average (62.1% ) .
The 2nd, the estate banking venture of company department is being accumulated quickly. Above all, assets of estate development company is indebted although rate drops somewhat, but overall taller, bad capital rate also is rising quickly. Because estate develops dilate of enterprise high speed, bring about real-estate industry assets indebted rate house does not fall high, maintain all the time in 70% . Meanwhile, bad assets leads estate development industry to rise once more again since 2016, the likelihood causes certain financial venture. Next, the cash flow of estate development company is indebted rate under safe level, cause company liquidity crisis extremely easily. In recent years, estate development industry is average fast move rate to be maintained basically in 50% to 70% between, it is especially after 2013, drop range is bigger. Meanwhile, begin from 2001, estate development industry is average cash flow is indebted type of rate occurrence shock drops.
The 3rd, the estate banking venture of financial orgnaization also is being accumulated quickly, but overall and character, financial venture still is in can accuse limits inside. Real-estate loan amount involves the pressure with rise to also concerned financial index to cause to the commercial bank constant continuously, commercial bank leverage and bad loan scale rise continuously, but in overall can accuse limits inside. Companion rises as violent wind of amount of real-estate industry loan, commercial bank leverage is in in last few years in be in ascendant passageway all the time, rise to December 2018 by 6.4% small of March 2016 6.73% of the portion. Additional, the bad capital rate of the commercial bank is in experienced one round after dropping, begin to enter again rise posture, from September 2011 of the portion 0.9% rise in December 2018 1.83% of the portion, grew nearly one times. Although of the commercial bank put borrow than, leverage and bad loan rate rise somewhat, but enough rate maintains the capital of the commercial bank basically in higher level, this shows the financial venture of the commercial bank to rise and lift as heat of estate market fire, but total risk can accuse.
(3) house price is put in dual impact to company liquidity risk, partial province is put in bigger company liquidity risk
Generally speaking, when liquid assets is more than flow to be in debt, company liquidity is safer, won't appear countervail debt problem, but when liquid assets is less than flow to be in debt, the industry can appear countervail debt problem. Normally, the flow of risk of occurrence liquidity of a company compares critical point is 1, but the best interval that the flow on the tradition compares is 1.5-2. Meanwhile, in the world, fast move compare in 1 above than maintaining appropriate, but be in our country, the business is better fast move it is than critical point 0.9, if fast move than under 0.9, the industry is put possibly in bigger liquidity risk. Be based on above standard, through be opposite the flow of each province was compared 2016 and fast move than contrast, the flow that can discover the province industry such as Liaoning, Shaanxi, Heilongjiang, Heibei, Yunnan, Gansu Province, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Shanxi, Qinghai is compared under 1, put in bigger liquidity risk. Meanwhile, the province industry such as Shanghai, Fujian, Guangdong, Hunan, Henan, Beijing, Jiangsu, Zhejiang fast move than be more than 0.9, have better liquidity.
House price includes to the influence of company liquidity impact and crowded give two kinds of effect, house price and company flow are compared present U relation, the house price level that its inflection point handles is 13359 yuan / square metre, when house price under 13359 yuan / when square metre, of house price squeeze an effect to want to be more than impact effect, and when house price prep above 13359 yuan / when square metre, the impact effect of house price should is more than squeeze an effect.
(write: Ni Peng flies to Shenyang to establish Gong Wei to enter Jiang Zhen)
4, housing ensures great improvement happiness and benefit of the people's livelihood
Living and work in peace and contentment is the biggest the people's livelihood, low income group is the focal point that the people's livelihood guarantees in, housing ensures the main base that is the people's livelihood and component. Of the party 18 big since, housing safeguard made main innovation explore in respect of benefit and the people's livelihood, gained the success that attract worldwide attention.
(one) a variety of ways that innovation explores housing to ensure benefit to reach living the people's livelihood
The first, support energetically through public finance and project of development sex finance, PPP, PSL (guaranty complement borrows money) product innovation solves capital problem, begin large-scale shanty town to transform.
The 2nd, after the development of system of house of mutual property right can satisfy property right of the carry out after be being hired first, preemptive share, hire, preemptive hind live wait for diversity demand, pilot development shares the 6 cities such as Beijing system of property right house.
The 3rd, through " fair cheap and course " move, the perfect and public housing that rent distributes administrative system, pilot begin use collective construction to build the housing that rent with the ground, compose builds the housing that hire purchase develops simultaneously to guarantee system system, promote communal construction of system of the house that rent.
(2) housing safeguard benefit and the people's livelihood obtain enormous result
The first, difficulty of housing of family of town low income alleviates apparently, housing ensures limits to also expand apparently. Up to the whole nation end 2005 only family of income of 329 thousand lowest is brought into cheap hires housing to guarantee range, the housing of low income family in solving nearly 43 million town with objective means up to accumulative total of the whole nation end 2015 is difficult, the public housing that rent is preserving a family by 2017 sixteen million five hundred and eighty-two thousand six hundred, low income housing is difficult in involving 4100 much town masses. Came 2008 2017, accumulative total has family of many 9000 town to change the means such as allowance to obtain housing safeguard through objective allocation, money. Came 2011 2017, countrywide accumulative total builds the public housing that rent 12.99 million.
The 2nd, build housing of sex of 50 million safeguard, the housing of population of 150 million low income gets settlement. Came 2008 2017, the whole nation in all housing of sex of safeguard of town of start working construction and shanty town transform housing 64.45 million above, build 49.01 million above basically, came 2011 how did sex of countrywide town safeguard reside project to complete investment in all 2018 11.57 trillion yuan.
The 3rd, large-scale safeguard sex housing and shanty town are transformed expanded inside need, stimulative economy grows smoothly. So large-scale project drove economic growth, average and annual offer post of obtain employment of 9 million above. Transform with shanty town for exemple, since 2013, canopy changes the investment that finish many yuan 70 thousand, strong drove building materials, decorate, the relevant industry such as home appliance grows, canopy changes reach relevant industry to always invest more than 15 trillion yuan.
(3) housing safeguard benefit and housing the people's livelihood should cover more estate and group
The first, support of housing of peasant worker worker, new citizen and housing safeguard should make the focal point of benefit and the people's livelihood. 2018, peasant industry measure is achieved 280 million, but the housing condition that the farmer is versed in and environment are extremely harsh, the life that is versed in to the farmer brought a lot of issues, affected national development. But, most area still is done not have bring into peasant worker worker housing to ensure systematic limits truly, let them halve the achievement of development and extra dividend, future should reach housing benefit the key of the people's livelihood to change a farmer to labour, new citizen.
The 2nd, each district explores the problem of housing the people's livelihood that solves a talent to live and work in peace and contentment actively. China enters the new era that high quality develops, the element more that drive economy grows relies on talent bonus release, housing guarantees a system by " protect basic " to " hurried develops " change. Should encourage what each district explores issue of difficulty of housing of of all kinds and outstanding talent actively to solve mode, method and measure.
[the information that buy a house is enjoyed easily, will quickly pay close attention to happy house net]
