Discuss ardently what commented on an area to receive many practitioner. Silent also saw many industry experts sentence content and policy to unscramble beforehand. From inside the argument of experts, having what emphasizing is -- before great scar, everybody needs to think calmly. Need to face reality not only, even rational stop caustic, and, hold hope to did not answer.
Next, we induced to everybody a few valuable expert sound, consult in order to offer everybody:
01 Wang Shujuan
Zhi Huiguang Fu Wangshu beautifuls: The scarcely of enterprise of smooth hot season with excellent second half of the year will be very poor!
Although upper reaches is produced can of enlarge very big, although policy is such severe, but home, foreign market belongs to those efficient, dovish enterprises, although the day of their second half of the year is bad, but do not meet very poor.
Global silicon chip, batteries piece, the product of package 70%~90% comes from at China, the inverter of 50% above comes from China, take a fancy to enterprise of smooth hot season, want to see global market. Although home market anticipates not as good as, but foreign market still pretty good, so second half of the year: Scarcely of outstanding enterprise of smooth hot season will be very poor!
A lot of enterprises of the current situation, experienced the industry trough 2012 to go, experienced all sorts of test. Believe to pass this Nie , these preeminent companies are met certainly bath fire renascence!
Industry of smooth hot season has competitive industry a few times in the world as minority, hope everybody can give it sincerely more caressing. is not just when the industry is good, bend over above bloodsucking, bad when cut one knife flesh to go again even!
02
Big poplar
Big poplar: Without destruction there can be no construction, fight the enemy 1000, from caustic 1200, inevitable also.
The problem that industry of our country new energy faces currently is policy cycle and unbalance of industrial cycle flexibility, and economic cycle and the fault with periodic the sources of energy match. We need n, need electric power, need green hill green water, need is cheap, need an opportunity that shares investment. However the importance between numerous demand, also accompanying the understanding with right participator and devoted deepness, and present different process. This ability is the glamour of investment.
The doorsill jumps over small industry, it is more difficult to want to had been done. Can be fooled and go up and break up a hubbub, the problem inside this, be afraid is not a market rule can explain. Everybody enjoyed among them welfare, policy is explained when have for what, do some moment say the market? When having difficulty especially, is what do above all to put on a stern expression?
Practitioner it may not be a bad idea, controller, everybody kidnaps policy, prodigal market, the issue that forms finally is to feeling stone addiction, do not cross a river. Accumulate over a long period, need to use really: Without destruction there can be no construction this word when, be afraid fight the enemy 1000, from caustic 1200, inevitable also.
New energy resources develops, the issue involves the success or failure that power system reforms, also be the core safeguard that our country can develop continuously. Break only original for can system, what just the opportunity provides diversification for social progress is new prop up. Be defeated match depart, new energy resources is much can complementary, carbolic market, construction of mechanism of credence of the sources of energy and financial capital are integrated, this package combination fist comes down, have oneself level, attract more person to adopt our regulation, believe we can have more new tomorrow.
03
Ma Yi power
Yi Wei of horse of SOLARZOOM wisdom library: Come on stage or erupt the systematization risk that causes industry of smooth hot season directly of this second policy and " hard-land " .
On the history, industry of each old policy sex often appears China " put - random - close - dead " periodic. And will look at present, industry of smooth hot season also did not escape the periodic law of a history. Of this second policy coming on stage is " close " begin, and prospective 2-3 year market of smooth hot season is worse necessarily. Come on stage or erupt the systematization risk that causes industry of smooth hot season directly of this second policy and " hard-land " .
It is certain that H company has as industry of smooth hot season representative " problem " appear on the market enterprise, the probability that goes bankrupt after this second policy comes on stage or will rise to 99% above considerably. Can predict, industry of smooth hot season or will return " go bankrupt wet " , bring about possibly relevant the sharp change that the chain-reacting that supplies catenary to go up and financial orgnaization make link manner to smooth hot season.
As the elapse of time, the allowance breach of the power station of 100+GW smooth hot season since March 2015 can add bigger more only. Had appeared 2018 2015 second half of the year and the financing of project of smooth hot season of the net is global the phenomenon of exceed the time limit (annotate: General financing hires dealer of operation of power station of smooth hot season 2 years wide deadline, interest is returned only inside 2 years, gold of countervail repayment of capital should begin after 2 years) , we reckon market of the company of each big bank, financing that rent, capital met the whole nation likely to tighten up the financing of link of pair of Guang Fuyun battalion in the round 2018.
The hasten as industry capital catenary is close, asset of usu. in anticipation of or in order to bring about a fall in price of company of each smooth hot season (basically be power station of smooth hot season) or will make only outlet, and the effect that suffers price of excessive of entire industry risk to rise, business of operation of the center look forward to that still has stronger capital actual strength, state-owend enterprise may be returned won't move immediately, this or will bring about power station asset to trade of market liquidity lose, thereby fluidity excessive price rises further likely.
The business client to industry of current light bend over (especially civilian battalion enterprise) , the proposal of SOLARZOOM wisdom library is:
A) depreciate sell a product,
B) if have goods in stock, as soon as possible undersell goods in stock, no matter be raw material or manufactured goods,
C) be like after depreciating considerably still cannot quiet empty goods in stock, answer considerably reduction of output,
D) any buy or sell on credit that examine pair of downstream clients strictly, quicken cash steam again,
E) in lawful, add up to the premise of compasses, defer all time node that pay external as far as possible,
F) to be not core branch, control of amount of the member that carry a person and the method that unit staff expenses commands two respects reduce integral personnel expenditure,
G) stop enlarge to produce in the round,
H) usu. in anticipation of or in order to bring about a fall in price is excellent asset (like power station or subsidiary equity) in order to obtain " those who maintain an order " cash flows,
I) strengthen the communication with money market, avoid by " smoke borrow " .
Altogether, all behavior of client of industry of current light bend over are become around " cash flows " 3 words and spread out.
04
Treat rain
Solarwit treats rain: Quicken par to get online pilot or for only outlet
Pressure of allowance of current our country is enormous, the country is urgent the original intention that publishs target government policy is understandable, but on specific plan we have better choice probably, for instance country of current distributed power station offers every degrees of report 0.32 yuan subsidy, add up to the index gross of 10GW; I thinks an allowance intensity halve, index gross breaks up times namely distributed power station every degrees of report 0.16 yuan of allowance, add up to the it is better to show scalar quantity can have policy effect of 20GW. From the angle of allowance pressure, the allowance gross that institute of two kinds of plan needs is equal, but hind a kind of plan more it is measure of administration of price measure and rather than.
Distributed installation amount has exceeded before 5 months 10GW, the annual index that the country allots is already gone, this makes layout door was used those last year distributed and distributed enterprise is faced with industry and commerce to did not have business doable a dangerous situation last year, and what I should emphasize designedly is: This is the industrial a dangerous situation that therapeutics of policy shock type causes, no matter cost discretion, hard escape by sheer luck. If policy can have room for manoeuvre, I hope to the country can reduce allowance intensity considerably and unlock index sincerely, can make at least so those cost canals control capacity outstanding, can accomplish cost the leftest preeminent company survives come down. Revolution of prospective the sources of energy relies on smooth hot season, future of smooth hot season looks distributed, the mature movement of distributed smooth hot season cannot leave the promotion of countless agency and carry dimension, the state is current one knife cuts policy, no matter cost discretion, no matter character stand or fall does not have business to be able to be done completely, after the result is bred for years namely good not easy Chu Louduan the distributed market of Ni is sound flameout, complete fall enters endless source.
05
Li Chuangjun
Li Chuangjun: Not be to should control development of smooth hot season!
On June 2, development of celestial to yesterday home reforms CCTV news channel appoint, bureau of energy resources of the Ministry of finance, nation allots jointly " inform about what Guang Fufa report concerned item 2018 " (hair change 〔 of the sources of energy 2018 〕 823) the file had a story.
Li Chuangjun vice director reiterates again:
Either saying is should control smooth hot season to develop! To the advanced technique, of high quality, do not need (country) these projects of finance allowance, we still are wearing button very much, do not be restricted dimensions develops.
Finally, with the horse Yi Wei's word serves as summary:
Long-term since, we always ponder over a problem with linear thinking, and having serious from numerous psychology, bring about from this all sorts of " be full of expectation " and all sorts of " disappointment is acedia even " . Policy of today's smooth hot season is in person of the same trade of each industry, capital looks " serious under anticipate " , also be this reason. In fact, should avoid these " disappointed " happen again, ought to from proceed with of mode of the thinking way that changes us, behavior.
When us with " attribution analysis " the reason that the method examines a likelihood to bring about an industry to add installation amount newly to change afresh, anybody can be maintained " policy " it is a main drive factor. But how many person goes analysing a country with why be being planted target function, with why be being planted to restrain a condition, in what does exterior condition fall spread out decision-making? Analysis of how much person is this dish too by " does party and country, hair change appoint, are user of company of phone of enterprise of business of operation of business of operation of state-owend enterprise of look forward to of bureau of the sources of energy, Ministry of finance, electrified wire netting, guild, center, civilian battalion, manufacturing industry, fire, power, bank and financing rented?
Appeal when us with " think independently " means shares the market, anybody thinks pretty good. But again how many person can abandon participating in when someone else is lively, overjoyed " drum sends a flower " game, can carry out goes " scared when other people is greedy, greedy when is other people scared " ?
365 smooth hot season rectify tonsorial cloth!
