Right now both sides comes to an agreement, the double reexamination that having politics and economic side is measured. Have observer appeal, the kindness with American new government is released even if stop Sino-US commerce to chafe, sign trade agreement as soon as possible
Graph / IC
Civil | " finance and economics " Jin Yan sends the special correpondent from Washington
Editor | Su Qi
Sino-US both sides announced to reach in October this year " materiality agreement of the first phase " hind, the United States is farther on December 15 on tone custom duty becomes one big be concerned about. Telangpu the government imposes the custom duty of 15% on the Chinese commodity that restrained 160 billion dollar to value on December 15 formerly, draw near increasingly as time, the signal of get warm again after a cold spell of Sino-US commerce negotiation also appears again and again.
On December 6, chinese Ministry of finance announces, soja and porky retaliatory tariff just import exempt part United States in, caused people to be opposite Sino-US be close to those who reach more comprehensive trade agreement to guess. American Ministry of Agriculture grew Po on December 9 prevent (Sonny Perdue) expresses, presidential Telangpu does not want to was defeated by beautiful commodity to be carried out below one round to China on December 15 book custom duty measure, but hope China can be adopted " the action " avoid custom duty to carry out. On December 12 morning, telangpu sends push civil point out: "' very ' adjacent with China ' major agreement ' . They want to reach this one agreement, we are such also. We are such also..
The United States is late on December 12 local time, coverage of media of American much home says, the two countries in the United States already reached both sides in in principle the trade agreement of the first phase, awaiting Telangpu's president to approve. Subsequently message personage discloses say, american commerce is stationed in hopeful of beautiful ambassador Cui Tiankai to signed an agreement outline on December 13 local time in the United States on behalf of Laitexize and China. Relevant progress, still wait for the authoritative bulletin of Sino-US both sides.
The time that friction of trade of Sino-US two countries already was as long as a year to be controlled partly, be a burden on the growth of global economy, supply catenary to cause interference to the whole world, money market is turbulent, global commissariat commerce also is affected.
Stalk of grain to cut till, the White House has not publish official statement, but feedback of American money market is positive, the United States pointed to big 3 that day on December 12 rise, pan Zhongjun touchs the history is new tall, accept points to and mark general history of closing quotation of refresh of 500 indexes in pairs is new tall. The RMB goes up greatly immediately 0.6% , add dollar exchange rate goes up to 7 less than.
Come to an agreement right now because of,move
Sino-US announced to reach on October 11 " materiality agreement of the first phase " hind, continued more than 10 months come to both sides negotiation ignore bright ignore the dark, feature after many twists and turns.
Original, view of market Ceng Le anticipates Sino-US two countries will be reached in November temporarily agreement. Did not have finally in November if really and eventually. Left in December piece clouded -- Telangpu expressed to media in London on December 3, with in square trade agreement negotiation does not have deadline, he would rather when the agreement was signed again after American general election 2020. Ross of minister of American business affairs also expresses, if both sides cannot reach a beauty in time to just consider as correct agreement, beautiful Fang Yuan is ordered what carried out to Chinese commodity on December 15 is new round of custom duty will become effective. Arrived on December 5, the Munuqin of American finance minister that the commerce in participating in the United States negotiates serves committee in Boule finance express to media after the hearing, with in honest trade negotiates everything is normal.
The report says, two countries cannot reach consensus tardy to a few major problems, the scope that imposes custom duty is increased before including the United States to cancel among them, and Chinese specific commitment purchases American produce dimensions. Governmental interior is opposite Telangpu how to cancel partly to be opposite China custom duty appeared difference. Concern with Telangpu close a few officials, write especially have " 3 books of Chinese " " coming Chinese battle " " deadly China " and " lie tiger: China " militarism " what to mean to the world " commerce of accipitral clique the White House is advisory Nawaluo thinks, should retain custom duty as a kind of mechanism of executive trade agreement come down. But a variety of evidence make clear, this one view was not obtained approbate consistently.
Observe the personage thinks, right now Sino-US because depend on,the politics that reachs trade agreement is moved, to Telangpu, 2020 general election shortly, if the United States is medium,sign trade agreement, the be reappointed consecutively that is helpful for him enters into an election contest. On December 10, zhou Erzheng type appeals cacique of Boule the Democratic Party Donald Telangpu's president is nonofficeholding, accuse in two impeach clause his misuse of authority, cloggy congress is investigated, weigh its " disregard and harm national interest " .
Economically, in American home, answer below importer, shopkeeper and the pressure that course of study has been in look forward to of a few United States to already concerned duty rise in price, offset the negative effect that custom duty brings to the sale. Accept " finance and economics " the American consumer that the reporter interviews also expresses, custom duty influence is shown already, a few commodity rose in price apparently a lot of. Before christmas comes, the Christmas colored lantern on American market is compared with photograph of in former years, breed is little, the price became high -- Christmas colored lantern comes from Chinese exit more.
Industry of drug of American rich force (Wang Yang of Fleda Pharmaceuticals Corp) CEO (JOHN WANG) right " finance and economics " the reporter expresses, sino-US trade friction is very big to his industry influence, he can get from Chinese entrance equipment and certain material the influence of custom duty; On the other hand although Euramerican have very big market, but the product that exports China also can get the influence of custom duty. Wang Yang is paying close attention to the progress of Sino-US trade agreement closely all the time, to him, if the United States continues to raise tariff, inevitable can further effect purchases the confidence of equipment from China, turn and seek other country source replace facility.
His company plan next year is finishing in January, the put into production at the beginning of Feburary, he bought the equipment of a 100 thousand much U.S. dollor, bright the beginning of the year delivers goods from China, if if add,impose the custom duty of 25% , he is about much pay the custom duty of 25 thousand U.S. dollor, if add,impose the custom duty of 40% , be about overpay 40 thousand U.S. dollor, the pressure of cost is very great.
"In principle " with " finite " agreement
Still be in written agreement in the process of protocol, american media all careful expression, say Sino-US the trade agreement of the first phase is called the agreement that in principle reachs, it is limited agreement.
The Bao Mailun of controller of general affairs of international of American chamber of commerce that the both sides in getting the United States reports (Myron Brilliant) express publicly, the government agrees Telangpu time-out carries out Telangpu to order weekday formerly (on December 15) to China of 160 billion dollar entrance product imposes the plan that imposes custom duty, reduce existing custom duty. Do not be clear that how much reducing scope specificly is nevertheless. As redound, beijing will buy produce of more United States, increase American company to strengthen the protection to intellectual property in market admittance of China.
On the measure that reduces existing custom duty, personage of know the inside story says publicly, commodity of China of 360 billion dollar increases pair of the United States' will existing value Chinese custom duty reduces an in part, purchase American produce, improvement in order to exchange Chinese affirmatory your writing to protect American intellectual property and the market admittance that enlarge Chinese finance to serve a field.
Fall to custom duty the Xiaoping to the half, accept " finance and economics " the relevant personage that interview thinks this one concession of the United States is bigger. Petersen international economy institute (Peterson Institute For International Economics) is advanced the researcher adds Li Kelaide Hafu Ball (Gary Clyde Hufbauer) thinks, 50% the likelihood is the reduces custom duty level upper limit that the United States just raises only, specific figure may depend on in just purchase an amount affirmatorily.
The report says, the United States just offers to be brought into in level agreement text " recall quickly mechanism (Snapback) " clause, use at preventing Chinese nonperformance its are affirmatory, beautiful Fang Youquan restores to come to duty tax rate former level. The negotiation personnel of past China does not wish to agree with written and affirmatory beautiful produce to purchase the forehead and detailed schedule all the time, worry about influence and the relation with other companionate commerce, and Chinese trade delegate thinks " recall quickly mechanism " the clause is violating Chinese sovereignty.
Chinese customs data shows, china dropped to beautiful exit November 23% , achieve the amplitude of lowermost only month since having a record, but the import rises 2.7% , this is since August 2018 grow first. Wild village negotiable securities (Nomura) Liu Ting of presiding China economist increases the import ascribe compare cardinal number inferior, the more produce that during commerce negotiates, imports from the United States and the entrance that consider China may be in the United States to plan on December 15 the American custom duty of become effective plans to be carried out ahead of schedule.
Chinese customs data shows, chinese soja imported gross to grow 53.9% in November, reach 8.278 million tons, for the top level since August. The strength that China purchases to produce is one of keys that the United States pays close attention to. Munuqin of American finance minister ever expressed, chinese acceptance purchases the 400 American produce to 50 billion dollar every year inside the 2nd year when the agreement reachs. The United States still just urges Chinese acceptance to be purchased to produce undertake the quarter is examined, ensure purchase Ebukeji to fall 10% .
The analysis thinks, china satisfies the United States not completely square large-scale the consideration of the requirement that purchases produce is, it can cause as companionate as other commerce clash. Still the message says, just think to purchase the effective demand that should grant market price case and China in.
In the White House the in principle in announcing the United States formally is reached with respect to agreement of trade of the first phase before agreeing, on December 12, the Shi Dawei of American assistant Secretary of State of responsible East Asia and Pacific Ocean general affairs (David Stilwell) in Washington wisdom library strategy and international research center address in reviewing the United States, concern, explain how American government releases kindness to China. Have observer appeal for this, the kindness with American new government is released even if stop Sino-US commerce to chafe, sign trade agreement as soon as possible.
