Times of an ancient name for China (Chinatimes.net.cn) reporter Yang Shi saves Beijing to report
Recently, vietnam custom announces, began at 0 o'clock from March 24, 2020, all sorts of rice products prohibit be being exported with any forms. In addition, the country such as Kazakstan Si Tan, Saierweiya, Russia also restricts native commissariat to export in succession.
Whether can this browbeat is Chinese commissariat safe? To this, li Guoxiang of researcher of institute of development of country of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences is accepted " times of an ancient name for China " when the reporter is interviewed, think, chinese commissariat reserve is enough, a few country limits export, its behavior is nearsightedness, meeting aggravate area is lopsided. Supply of food of current whole world is superfluous on the whole, world grain price is low all the time move, and of epidemic situation although can flow to international content,spread carry cause an effect, but this kind of influence is short-term, supply of global grain production and demand are a balance.
And data of American Ministry of Agriculture also confirms, paddy rice and wheat are in two kinds this the commissariat with global most extensive commerce, total this year output predicts to will achieve 1.26 billion tons of this one history new tall, the total consumption of Yuan Chaoquan ball, predict to will have 470 million tons the rest finally.
Spread as epidemic situation, whether more country still can restrict commissariat to export? Li Guoxiang thinks, vietnam ban is the need that stems from the commissariat inside preferential and contented supplier probably, but to country of outlet of a lot of food, follow the lead of of not certain metropolis. Warning of Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said recently, the protectionism step that each country government takes during new coronal crisis, the likelihood causes the shortage of global commissariat and food, affect the stability of grain price then.
Multilateral limitation commissariat is exported
Many countries prohibited in succession recently food outlet, cause all circles attention.
Occupy the story that jump over intermediary, vietnam to evaluate the stocks of domestic rice, announce to begin to suspend exporting all sorts of rice external with any forms since March 24. Subsequently, vietnam Ministry of finance explains, plan of total bureau of Vietnam nation reserve stores before June 15 190 thousand tons of rice, there is grain in order to ensure to eat during epidemic situation, continue to lay in 80 thousand tons of paddy at the same time. 2019 annual, vietnam already laid in 200 thousand tons of rice and 80 thousand tons of paddy.
China serves as the neighbour of Vietnam, also import rice to this country all the time, is Vietnam broken does for rice state-owned to me He Ying ring? At this point, sun Hao of researcher of research center of rural economics of rural Ministry of Agriculture tells " times of an ancient name for China " reporter, global commissariat is produced can superfluous, autarky of Chinese grain ration, the influence that other country limits commissariat to export pair of China is relatively finite.
There is grain in the hand, in the heart not confused. Will release last year in October " Chinese commissariat is safe " white paper also gave out with a series of data the answer. Total output stabilizes Chinese commissariat to have a quantity to achieve 470 kilograms or so in commissariat of 650 million tons of above, average per capita all the time since 2015, average level of prep above world. Among them, self-sufficient rate exceeds cereal 95% , self-sufficient rate achieves grain ration 100% . With respect to Vietnam, vietnam rice exported gross to be 6.37 million tons 2019, china imported 477 thousand tons only, this and China are compared on rice consumption 100 million tons every year, occupy than very small.
Nevertheless, in limitation commissariat exports a respect, other country also acted somewhat. Cite Singapore " associated morning paper " report, the whole world is main wheaten exit country Kazakstan Si Tan had prohibited the exit of wheat flour, carrot, candy and potato; Saierweiya already stopped the kinds or types of goods such as sunflower seed oil to export; And Russia plant oily alliance already asked to limit sunflower seed export; The 2nd old palm oil produces the whole world the exit of Malaysia already also put the state delay; The paddy rice with the greatest whole world exports a nation Indian exit also because " seal a country " and be immersed in backwater.
The intermediary outside occupying reports, up to on March 26, the country announces to stop or at least already 5 limit commissariat export, but at the same time, iraqi provisionment is in an emergency, need imports 1 million tons of wheat and rice of 250 thousand tons of paddy; What paddy rice or wheat import a country is Philippine and Indonesian the supply that waits for a country also can be maintained only June, if will end in June,this means epidemic situation, the provisionment of these countries also will be in an emergency.
Be based on this just about, many people begin to be anxious " global food shortage " want to come. Nevertheless, look in Li Guoxiang, produce of many states restriction is exported still basically is in an attempt to is protected oneself, more commissariat advocate produce a country up to now not follow-up.
The word that uses Zhang Wufeng of national commissariat and director of bureau of reserve of goods and materials says, china is lying on the history the period with food safety best topological features, namely grain crop sufficient, market supplies tall, reserve price of firm, grain ability of firm, safeguard adjusting control capability is strong, strong, ensure when to be badly in need of, can be moved so that move, use.
China won't make commissariat uncultivated land
"The impact is very little, it is almost 0. " when whether can the ban with respect to Vietnam cause menace to Chinese grain ration, many suffer visit an expert to respond to our newspaper reporter to say.
Li Guoxiang is analysed with custom statistic, volume of Chinese rice import is very few, statistical data shows China basically imports origin is Thailand rice, not be Vietnam rice. "China's annual rice yield prep above consumption, go inventory pressure is particularly great. Even if 2019 Chinese rice reduction in production, the price does not rise to drop instead not only, proved rice excess supply of China. " Li Guoxiang says, china imports rice to have 7789 tons or so every year from abroad, basically be rice breed adjust.
Data shows, china not only rice eats quite, still exported rice external 2019 many tons 270. Accordingly, at present China need not be anxious " food shortage " problem. The data of American Ministry of Agriculture shows, 2018/19 market year, chinese rice crop is 150 million tons about, vietnam makes an appointment with 28 million tons, china is Vietnam 5 times much. China also imports rice, 2018/19 market year, china imported 3 million tons.
Up to now, china still owns the paddy stock of day of quantity. 2018/19 market year, inventory of paddy of Chinese period end makes an appointment with 115 million tons, according to the Chinese rice consumption calculated 143 million tons last year, chinese farmer is not planted one year crops, do not import a rice from abroad, the people of the whole country can take 9 months. Inventory of paddy of year of on the whole world one market is 175 million tons, chinese inventory occupied one most.
Not only such, year of on China one market still has 140 million tons wheaten stock, 210 million tons corn stockpile. "Opposite for, the entrance impact of soja product is bigger, because epidemic situation is brought about,carry not free, the product cannot arrive harbor. " on March 28, jiang Nan of researcher of rural economics research center accepts agricultural country ministry " times of an ancient name for China " when the reporter is interviewed, say.
Occupy reporter understanding additionally, epidemic situation is prevented during accusing, about the branch price of contest of paddy of sex of reasonable arrangement policy is sold, began 800 thousand tons to increase the late rice in putting in to Hubei area every week on Feburary 10, satisfied the market effectively to supply.
China was released 2019 " Chinese commissariat is safe " white paper shows, self-sufficient rate carries Chinese grain all the time in 95% above, implementation cereal is supplied self-sufficient. Statistical bureau data also says, 2019 Chinese grain total output one thousand three hundred and twenty-seven billion seven hundred million jins, increase 11.9 billion jins than 2018, grow 0.9% , achieve the history top level.
"Autarky of Chinese grain ration, do not import a food unchallenged also. " Sun Hao says. Nowadays, wheaten inventory surplus has 100 million tons, and corn 80 million tons, paddy is controlled 100 million tons, our country of this 3 big staple food grain can realize autarky completely, do not import also won't cause domestic supply shortage.
Of course, "Chinese food safety also faces a few challenges, if epidemic situation affects agricultural production, great plant diseases and insect pests. " Jiang Nan says, look now, epidemic situation is lesser to the influence of spring ploughing, northeast spring ploughing just will end in May, the influence of natural nevertheless disaster is bad still to estimate. But what need faces up to is, other country can affect the change of grain price because of storing up grain. According to the report, a few traded in the past day, soja, oaten go tall all the way with the futures commodity price such as wheat. To this, warning of Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations says, the protectionism step that each country takes during new coronal crisis, the likelihood causes the shortage of global commissariat and food.
Responsibility edits: Chief editor of Xu Yun alizarin red: Chen Yan roc
