Recently, new coronal is pneumonic epidemic situation spreads the whole world, cause food of corner of sex of each country panic. To ensure provisionment enough, a few commissariat export a nation, begin to limit commissariat export, for instance: Vietnam announced to suspend rice exit recently, vietnam all the year round rice exit is controlled 7 million tons, 15% what take world trade amount roughly. If epidemic situation of later period world still cannot get effective control,a lot of scholars express, the risk that causes global food crisis will be big probability incident. So, face the global food crisis that produces likely, does the commissariat of our country eat quite?
Our country has 1.4 billion population, main grain consumption has kind of 4 kinds of staple food, rice, flour, food grains other than wheat and rice, flesh kind. The basis is forecasted, predict 2020, chinese commissariat total demand will achieve about 614 million tons, among them demand of grain ration consumption is 212 million tons about, feed consumes demand to be 298 million tons about with grain. The rice in grain ration consumption serves as staple food, general demand is 1 ～ about 120 million tons, wheaten goods year demand gross is 100 million tons or so, still have a lot of with food grains other than wheat and rice and flesh kind for staple food.
In recent years, grain crop is stabilized for years continuously in 600 million tons of above, 2019 total output of our country grain six hundred and sixty-three million eight hundred and forty thousand tons (one thousand three hundred and twenty-seven billion seven hundred million jins) , increase 5.94 million tons than 2018 (11.9 billion jins) , grow 0.9% , achieve the history top level, among them, early rice total output is 26.27 million tons about, summer grain crops is 141.6 million tons about, most is autumn grain, it is 496 million tons about. In light of cent type, the yield of corn is top, exceeded 260 million tons (be next to the United States, the 2nd big corn produces the whole world country) ; The crop of paddy is close to 210 million tons (the rice with the greatest whole world produces a country) , wheaten crop is 133.6 million tons about, legume and potato are later kind.
Additional, come nearly 20 years, our country is built and perfect ceaselessly in the center of with local commissariat reserve system chime moves a mechanism, come round to look from eye, oily stockpile of our country grain is in historical perch, no matter central reserve grain or local reserve grain are very abundant. Although, our country commissariat is put in problem of structural sex shortage, high grade paddy and wheaten supply deficiency, corn existence is produced require separation, self-sufficient rate is not worth soja 20% , but two big grain ration realize our country paddy and wheat completely self-sufficient, self-sufficient rate exceeds cereal 95% .
Although our country commissariat basically is early,realized autarky to still have balance, but mix for fill adjust of grain market, still need to import one part of one part food. 2018, import volume is year of commissariat of our country 108 million tons, among them only soja imports a quantity to be as high as 88.03 million tons, other cereal adds up to 20.46 million tons, but compare at China year commissariat always produces 630 million tons and character, do not calculate big.
Our country imported Vietnam rice 2019 only 480 thousand tons, for since 2011 lowermost level; 1 ～ imported rice from Vietnam in Feburary this year only 30 thousand tons. The fact is, our country executed commissariat to close 2016 store since the system is reformed, rice number of feed inlet measures year after year to drop, rice imported 2.55 million tons 2019, drop compared to the same period 530 thousand tons, entrance rice occupies our country rice to consume about 1% , basically use at breed surplus and deficiency to adjust, be like Thailand aromatic rice, although rice is not imported,also won't affect home market supply.
According to national grain oil information center is monitored, countrywide treatment is enterprise wheat, early long-grained nonglutinous rice, medium on March 23 0.1% grow before late long-grained nonglutinous rice, round-grained nonglutinous rice compares the Spring Festival into factory price, drop 0.2% , grow 0.4% , grow 1.3% . Flour, early polished long-grained nonglutinous rice, medium before producer price of late polished long-grained nonglutinous rice, rice compares the Spring Festival, drop 0.4% , grow 0.6% , grow 0.5% , grow 1.3% . Accordingly, of oily market of our country grain or extraordinary stability.
The expert thinks, face new coronal pneumonic epidemic situation, main export country adopts limitation to utter step, may the wave motion of price of commissariat of aggravate international market, but right the impact of market of our country grain is not at present big, be helpful for digesting unreasonable food stock, ease pressure of inventory of breed of domestic share food.
