The spring 2020 does not calculate peace and tranquility, it is new coronal at the same time pneumonic spread quickly in the whole world, across is the infrequent a plague of locusts that causes by drought, this disappear those grows to rest ceaselessly.
Recently, the country such as Si Tan of Vietnam, Saierweiya, Kazakstan, Russia announces to prohibit early or late produce. As the whole world the biggest commissariat imports a country, up to by 2019, commissariat of our country annual imports a quantity to achieve one hundred and eleven million four hundred and forty thousand tons, amount achieves 289.4 billion yuan.
Face multilateral commissariat to prohibit exporting nowadays, a lot of people begin to worry about the rice bag that had his.
1.4 billion person can not be a small number, our country farmland does not consider besides much. According to statistic, chinese farmland is one hundred and twenty-five million nine hundred and thirty thousand hectare, area of farmland of average per capita is 0.1 hectare only. It is in the country of above of 26 50 million population, area of farmland of Chinese average per capita is located in reciprocal the 3rd.
Why should this not fathomless also our country import food in great quantities, because our farmland is little,basically be, and cultivated crop is relatively onefold, need relies on exterior market to complement of one part inside need. In addition, domestic farmer cultivates opposite cent to come loose, manufacturing cost is relative also taller, rise in price in what domestic grain oil drove on certain level, the commissariat that also brought about more low enters Chinese market.
In addition, according to WTO trade regulation, inside the quota of our country acceptance, to importing food need fulfils the low custom duty of 1% , exceed a part to want to carry out the custom duty of 65% . It is in order to import corn exemple, our country now the affirmatory quota of corn is 7.2 million tons, if how exceed this quota to do? Import those not to suffer custom duty quota to restrict administrative product! The substitute such as distiller's grains of similar barley, broomcorn, corn, cassava and cassava pink, these substitute also increased the commissariat of our country to import an amount.
When we are being imported, also exporting likewise, just speak a volume opposite less be.
Public data shows, 3 big commissariat of world export a nation is the United States, Russia and Wukelan respectively, the reason is very simple also, ground wide person rare, land is fecund, wu Kelan is to be called more " European barn " . It is with Wukelan exemple, china is Wu Kelan produce is the biggest buy the home, 2019, the produce that Wu Kelan exports China is 1.955 billion dollar about (about 13.7 billion RMB) .
Dry what do these basically use into buccal commissariat? It is to be used for the most part when feed.
Ferial those li of abroad produce that we eat, resemble aromatic rice of the breed strawberry that is Japan, Thailand, just used have a taste of what is just in season to stop likely, not be the big head of the entrance. Our country entrance is most is soja, custom releases data to show, china is eighty-eight million five hundred and eleven thousand tons about in the soybean that imported 2019, relatively increased 477 thousand tons 2018.
These soja are basic it is to use those who serve as feed, and the wheat that serves as staple food, rice, chinese entrance is not much.
2019, as a result of the influence of African swine fever, the demand that domestic feed breeds drops substantially. The soybean that imported 2019 so, having is to enter a country directly partly quite in reserve, did not flow into home market. Country increases to the demand of soja, basically be began those who rise to go up January from this year. In light of current condition, do not need to worry about the breach on soja temporarily.
The life that returns common people comes up, afraid and other country prohibits exporting commissariat to be able to bring about the young associate that case of oil price of our country grain goes up greatly, also can call in the heart temporarily in abdomen, concern with us not big really.
The paddy supply that is our country above all is ample, be in balance for years continuously. Data shows, the rice crop of our country was 209.6 million tons 2019, among them edible consumption is 158 million tons about, paddy raise is used and industrial grain increases somewhat, but year still has 14.3 million tons balance.
Additional, wheat also is to be produced for years be more than need, the countryman presents the state that drop actually to flour consumption.
Below this kind of circumstance, everybody does not need to worry about his grain ration problem too really, calculate each country to begin to control commissariat export, also basically won't cause case of oil price of our country grain to go up greatly. Resembling is the Vietnam that announces this to prohibit exporting rice, at first sight is like meeting clutch to live our rice bag, the rice that actually Vietnam exported to our country 2019 ability trifling 480 thousand tons, basically give the home namely in eat feed offer a few kinds of alternatives more, not be the mainstream on table absolutely.
Otherwise you see the rice of oneself, is what you buy northeast rice or Vietnam rice?
02 soja do not have care, fleshy egg may go up
Had had Si Tan of Vietnam, Saierweiya, Kazakstan, Russia, Egypt at present 5 countries announce to prohibit in succession partial produce exit, and Wu Kelan home also has processing factory of pink of knead dough of partial bread factory to ask the government restricts cereal to export.
Elder sister of a list of names posted up delimits to everybody a key, be " partial produce " be restricted to export.
As a result of the influence with new pneumonic coronal, many countries entered urgent state now, traffic is carried and production is managed be affected badly. Below this kind of circumstance, produce appears the reduction of output of certain level, carry difficulty plus traffic, stem from the consideration of pair of native markets, short-term inside prohibit produce exit also is the business that can expect.
For instance Russia, this Russian Ministry of Agriculture offers to be in 2020 the 2nd quarter (came in April in June) , the cereal of Russia exit measures limitation to be in 7 million tons, in order to ensure the stability of domestic food market. It is after all during new coronal is pneumonic, the people also more apt buys food and necessaries of life.
Relevant personage expresses, the influence of this one limitation is not met very big, because the market is common,predict even if Russia exports a quantity to be controlled in 7 million tons in the cereal before June 30. Come from January 1, 2020 on March 26, the cereal exit of Russia is 7.2 million tons originally, the 2nd quarter also is 7 million tons to accord with this one inertial.
Change and of character, russia restricts cereal exit to still basically disclose a signal, do not have too big impact to us.
As to our country demand the biggest soja, basically come from entrance of the United States, Brazil. Data shows, the soybean that China imported 2019 has 65.11% to come from at Brazil, the amount achieves fifty-seven million six hundred and twenty-nine thousand five hundred tons. March Brazilian day all the export volume of soja is four hundred and seventy-nine thousand two hundred tons, already exported 7.2 million tons of soja up to 30 days, and the export volume of Brazilian soja was 5 million tons Feburary.
Because Chinese market is huge, the soja product that Brazil grows has supply Chinese market technically in great quantities, brazilian side also is declaring where one stands actively, predict Brazil exports a quantity to will maintain Gao Shuiping continuously to Chinese soja this year. The message says, brazilian government has given orders to ask, adopting relevant measure to ensure produce to export.
Can say, commissariat of near future international exports disturbance, not big to the influence of our country. And the commissariat reserve amount of our country is very large. Announce to prohibit exporting partial food early or late in 5 countries later, of rice of 3 big staple food grain, wheaten, corn overall go situation it is relatively smooth as before.
Relative to the breach at commissariat, we may need to worry about fleshy egg more kind food rises in price. Data shows, 2018 consumption of grain of town dweller average per capita 110 kilograms, drop than 1956 36.6% ; And the consumption of fleshy egg promotes considerably however, consumption of meat of flocks and herds of average per capita 4.2 kilograms, egg of average per capita kind consumption is 10.8 kilograms.
From the point of dietary structure, the demand of compatriots is in to fleshy egg kind food deflection, and fleshy egg kind the high yield of food is to cannot leave the feed product such as soja, corn.
In new coronal during pneumonic epidemic situation, because content flows not free brings about aquaculture to be pounded certainly, the company that has 50.8% faces the problem that raw material is in short supply, a lot of breed door say frankly the circumstance that feed is in short supply particularly serious. Data shows, before CPI influence is resided 3 is livestock meat kind, birds flesh kind with the egg kind, in food, livestock meat kind rise in price 87.6% , influence CPI rises about 3.85 percent.
And the aquaculture that was affected Feburary by epidemic situation, the dining table of a few months after affecting us continuously.
