On June 4, a newest paper that publishs jointly by the United States and British author points out, the result misdirect of economic mode policy constitutor, underestimated the risk that prospective climate change affects thereby. This is published at " environmental economics and policy review " change of the climate between government of paper appeal U.N. is special committee (when IPCC) is preparing to evaluate the 6th when published 2022 at was being mixed 2021 the report, should improve the analytic way of pair of economic model results.
The Thomas Stoerk of fund of the author of the paper, environmental protection, the Bob Ward of economy of the Gernot Wagner of center of environment of haing Buddha university and change of climate of ESRC of London plutonomy courtyard and policy center thinks, "More and more evidence make clear, the global climate variation that uses at present is overall the economic model of the influence is handling uncertainty side not quite sufficient, underestimated potential risk of future badly. Underestimated potential risk of future badly..
Their warning says, economist uses " evaluate a model integratedly " , "Ignored greatly ' critical point ' latent capacity, after exceeding critical point, the influence can be quickened, cannot be held back or cannot go against turn " . As a result of the whole world average air temperature rises more than 2 Celsius, its are as a result " damage what they fail to explain climate change is brought adequately potentially, be in especially medium fall to calefacient circumstance of Gao Shuiping " .
The author still thinks, "Major difference exists between the science that to prospective climate change affects and economic estimation. " they point out: "The difference between objective and economic influence estimation is very big, and very important. However, physics is affected often cannot technical terms of translate into money, and they are ignored by climate economist place greatly.
The report points out, IPCC evaluates a report the 6th times to answer " strengthen pair of decision-making attention below uncertainty " , and " the economy that evaluates uncertainty itself how to affect climate to change centrally and financial cost estimation " .
"Can will evaluate a report to be set into a large forum, collect scientist and economist together to discuss jointly, the influence that changes in order to quantify climate " . They think, this will make IPCC can " offer a kind of stronger, stricter way for the policymaker, the potential risk that will evaluate climate to change to be damaged to prospective economy " .
Had two authors written to IPCC the associated chairman Hans-Otto P of the 2nd working group? Professor Rtner and Debra Roberts are taught, in order to cause the people attention to this new paper.
