On January 8, 2021, breed of futures of complete a business transaction of first live body of our country -- hog futures is in Dalian Commodity Exchange (abbreviation " big business place " ) hang out one's shingle trade. Appear on the market first days, receiving those who give birth to hog futures is however " open the door green " . Oriental money data shows, up to closing quotation, agreement of live pig brunt falls 12.61% , sign up for 26810 yuan / ton.
The personage inside course of study points out, hog futures drops first days, or because current live pig is produced,be can restore good, market of fiducial price prep above anticipates generally. Hog futures appears on the market the risk that will be helpful for practitioner using spot price of futures tool avoid to fluctuate, sentence reasonable adjustment to breed dimensions beforehand through the price, maintain management stability.
Hog futures is encountered first days cold
On January 8, 2021, hog futures hangs out his shingle in big business place trade. According to big business place, hog futures contract trades code is LH, trade the unit is 16 tons / hand, the smallest fluctuant price is 5 yuan / ton, go up drop stop board extent trades to go up 4% of price of day settle accounts, lowest trades 5% what bail is contract value, month of hog futures contract is 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, November, trade time is come every week Zhou Wu 9:00-11:30, 13:30-15:00, and the other time that bourse provides.
On January 7, big business place announces agreement to hang dish of fiducial price to be LH2109 agreement 30680 yuan / ton, LH2111 agreement 29680 yuan / ton, LH2201 agreement 28680 yuan / ton, namely hog futures first hanging out one's shingle agreement of trading the closest month is in September 2021. Oriental money data shows, up to on January 8 closing quotation, agreement of live pig brunt falls 12.61% , sign up for 26810 yuan / ton.
Appear on the market first days to encounter to hog futures cold, already had inside course of study predict. Academy of smooth big futures is in before this trade politic middle finger goes out, our country live pig is produced can restore progress situation good, in other factor changeless circumstance falls, in September 2021, market live pig supplies big probability to increase. But epidemic situation of African swine fever is prevented accuse cost, feed cost to increase bring about those who breed totle drilling cost to increase, will form to pig price from cost end prop up. Accordingly, pig price delay drops probability is bigger, because market of fiducial price prep above anticipates generally, hog futures appears on the market first days or will give now to drop.
Notable is, hog futures also is breed of futures of complete a business transaction of first live body of our country. Controller of big business place introduces publicly, be mark of complete a business transaction with live body, the hog futures variety that takes objective complete a business transaction, be period show the market 20 years the achievement of the joint efforts.
Big business place begins a pig from 2001 kind the reserve research of breed. In recent years, dimensions of industry of live pig breed aquatics is changed, standardization and standardization level promote ceaselessly, year the dimensions of 500 above spends a column farm live pig gives column quantity to occupy than, come from the 26% promotion 2007 present 50% above, unified young pig is supplied, service of drug of unified feed, unified animal, unified technology, unified sale goes column " 5 unified " decided to give column live pig to standardize degree taller. In the meantime, pattern of trade of our country live pig is mature, current fashion is given priority to with live body, spot market commerce is smooth, commercialize degree taller, both sides of supply and demand is nonexistent forestall, live pig price is decided completely by market supply and demand. Afore-mentioned characteristics all are appear on the market hog futures laid a foundation.
Net of early-warning of Chinese live pig is presiding analyst Feng Yonghui thinks, hog futures regards complete a business transaction of the first live body as futures, it is follow-up and other flesh likely also kind futures appears on the market open a channel. In our country flesh kind produce can in the structure, pork is occupied 60% , chicken is occupied 20% much, flesh of flocks and herds is occupied remain 10% much. At present option market already chose body to measure the biggest pork, follow-up likelihood also can consider the chicken, variety such as beef. "After still needing to run hog futures for some time first of course, view its effect decision. View its effect decision..
Conduce to the price be being sentenced beforehand
Does hog futures appear on the market what kind of influence will bring for live pig industry? Feng Yonghui signs up for a reporter to express to new capital, the function of futures is price discovery, 2 it is to cover period keep a cost, the lock decides long-dated cost, very big to the help of generator. In the past, the produce value that everybody sees was that day mostly or short-term market value, be affected easily by the complex element such as market competition, cannot be opposite future is precise sentence beforehand, production will be a little so blind, not as synchronous as the price. "Pig price is high today, you decide to raise a pig, but wait for you to raise the pig come out, pig value is potential already fall after a rise, do not go up in a metre forever. Do not go up in a metre forever..
Futures can alleviate on certain level this problem, its price can offer the generator of industrial inside and outside and investor to make certain judgement to prospective market, adjust thereby production of merchandise on hand. Rolled out price of contract of a year of the following futures now suppose, if compare low, so the person that raise a pig may adjust production one year ahead of schedule structure, cut dimensions, fall into disuse superfluous produce can wait, can avoid serious yield can superfluous or insufficient, let production tend stable.
Controller of big business place also introduces in government-owned net, big business place is setting of month of hog futures contract 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, in November, because live pig is the direct and downstream product that corn and beans dregs of rice,be, dregs of rice month of hog futures contract and corn, beans press close to of futures contract month, the fluctuation that pig of opposite of facilitating industry client breeds swims into travel entire industry chain case period keeps a cost, form closed risk management chain. In addition, to make sure futures contract is successional, provide successive price reference to the market, hog futures still is withheld suffer the element such as weather to affect risk of complete a business transaction opposite taller in July agreement, but right agreement will carry out more strict wind to accuse measure in July.
In the meantime, controller of big business place points out, hog futures will be offerred for the market open, transparent consult with successive price, benefit breeds dimensions at breeding an enterprise to optimize resource configuration, reasonable control, promote whole industry health to develop. The government sector also can hold the metabolic trend of hog market supply demand relations according to signal of option market price, thereby more specific aim ground makes policy of macroscopical adjusting control.
Discover except the price and cover period outside keeping a cost, feng Yonghui alludes further, hog futures also is an effective financial tool. Merchandise on hand has the epidemic situation risk such as African swine fever in manufacturing process, the market is fluctuant and acuteness, below this kind of circumstance, tool of finance of have the aid of capital market capital of a few venture capital investment is attracted come over, can help industrial producer collective antagonism market advocate risk.
Whether can affect pig price to go to the arrival of hog futures situation, feng Yonghui expresses, futures price is issued and cover period the acuteness wave motion that protects the function of the value to conduce to abate hog cycle, but whether very big to arriving since the wave motion of hog cycle stablize action, still remain to observe.
Zhu Zengyong of deputy researcher of institute of vet of pasturage of Beijing of courtyard of Chinese farming division also thinks, of hog futures appear on the market to be met in certain level the wave motion of cycle of slow down hog, but won't be apparent main perhaps factor. "Generally speaking, merchandise on hand is one, futures is additionally one, but if arrived period of complete a business transaction, if futures price and spot price error are very big, so each other may have interact to the price, but influence rate is not old, because pig price is main,still decide by domestic supply and demand. Because pig price is main,still decide by domestic supply and demand..
Zhu Zengyong is mentioned, somebody worries about option market to may have bigger effect to spot market, because hog futures is live body futures,be, unlike soja, corn is able to bear or endure quite store carry. Opposite for, still want to restore a situation to sentence prospective pig price beforehand according to home's current live pig. After hog futures appears on the market, be opposite through analysing a likelihood accordingly prospective market value goes situation the guidance of sex of the look up before having. But whether does futures contract price accord with spot market demand finally, still depend on future the change of situation of supply and demand of period of time.
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Edit Li Yan to proofread Li Shihui
