" farming money jewel " Wang Wenjiang of beautiful of Li Xiao of reporter of new herd network
"Chengdu today's pig price 19.5 yuan / jin, the big pig of 350 jins of above has gone up 20 yuan / jin. " Sichuan boss of Liu of some pig farm expresses gladly to the reporter, although expect pig price to be able to go up before the section, but never expect can go up so tall. Current prices really beyond the expect of a lot of people.
Generally speaking, price of the pig before the Spring Festival can rise, pig price was 18 yuan in January 2020 / jin, and in January 2021 price of partial section pig already to 20 yuan / jin breakthrough. Two months short, go up panel height is amounted to 40% . Enter after December, the country already put in aspic flesh reserve 3 rounds to drop in temperature, pig price jumps over adjusting control taller instead.
Why does epicycle pig price rise? Is city returned after whether break through continuously? Reporter of network of new herd of farming money jewel interviews discovery, 4 big reasons or it is motor of pig price rocket.
1, the bacon before the Spring Festival is made aid push consumption
Reporter of network of new herd of farming money jewel investigates discovery, because early days air temperature is reduced,pig price rises basically is bring about pork to consume increment, together with bloats more dried meat start, demand of fat to great weight pig increases. Rise in price as fat pig, medicinal powder raise door with dimensions farm the cherish that press column makes work intent is grumous, live pig gives column rhythm to begin to decelerate, aid push live pig price to rebound. Breed end at present bullish sentiment is stronger, a lot of pig farm press column, expect to sell a higher price.
Market of new hair ground feedbacks, suffer this effect, in selling a process, a few large farms use the near future in wool pig on sale form, announce the wool pig amount that gives column that day and sheet to weigh beforehand, by each butcher factory or agential contest price is bought, price is high person, pull the price that move a pig to rise, drive fleshy price to rise.
2, aspic flesh check gives Xin Guanyang sex to affect demand
2020 1~11 month, history of creation of entrance flesh amount is new tall, achieve 3.94 million tons, but entrance aspic is tasted detect a hair of frequency of incident of Xin Guanyang sex, bigger to pig price impact. Shandong gentleman trades into live pig Zhang Cheng of central pig broker speaks of, "It is fresh pork consumption currently most flourishing when, when there is aspic to taste before, the price still can be controlled somewhat, supply and demand gets proper balance, but aspic is tasted current after decreasing, have to fresh pork price very big aid postpone action " .
It is reported, zhengzhou will remove refrigeratory to close operation on December 12; Hubei assist this world has all imports inside whole town limits from December 4 next cold chain provision is total wearing; Will rise on December 7, many markets ban Xi'an aquatic product of carry out entrance and aspic goods are managed door sign relevant and affirmatory book; Can say to be worn below each district, ban carry out, park step aspic of cold to the entrance chain is tasted cause comprehensive blow. Aid from this pushed delicacy to taste pork to clinch a deal increase, enthusiasm of pork agency stock up promotes, drive pork to rise in price further.
3, produce can have not restored in the round, supply still be in short supply
Although official near future releases a message to say, amount of livestock on hand of live pig of current whole nation and amount of livestock on hand of can numerous sow already all restored all the year round 90% above of the level, but breach still tremendous. With pork of Chinese in former years normal crop is 55 million tons fiducial, pork breach still exceeds 5.5 million tons.
Actual amount of livestock on hand has pig of opposite of the personage inside course of study additionally view. Henan dark is mixed Shang Haian tells president of kind of limited company of pig gene breeding the reporter, "This year 5, computative June whole nation can be numerous sow 23 million, regional now epidemic situation is serious, consider the whole nation can numerous the sow increases somewhat, estimation also is not worth 26 million " .
Send circumstance of ground market feedback to look anew, this year after October, be in those who appear on the market is white a pig is medium, of small type of build or figure white the pig is in white a pig is medium occupy comparing is taller all the time, occupy than exceeding 25% all the time. This means a lot of live pig to be shifted to an earlier date butcher, pig of possible effect wool is produced can restore normally. Especially successive of two many months shift to an earlier date butcher, make pig of near future wool produces the rate that can restore to anticipate not as good as.
Some pig dealer also discloses, look forward to of partial group pig gave column weight to fall 90 kilograms, this one circumstance and the case that send ground market feedback newly are consistent. This pig dealer shows, "Spoken parts in an opera still is to be short of a pig " , a lot of appear on the market group pig look forward to gives column job to finish, give a pig ahead of schedule, predict the condition that the pig that lack sign lies on the market before the Spring Festival so, aggravate supplies tight situation.
"In the meantime, current regional epidemic situation is grim. " Shang Haian expresses, the live pig that epidemic situation brings about is supplied in short supply, this also is the one big factor that influence pig price rises. Shang Haian expresses, production of a lot of pig farm is perplexed now by the disease, if vaccinal poison and wild poison coexist, quantity of prospective amount of livestock on hand still suffers an effect.
4, dominant of mood of costly cherish carry out rises
As supply end to press meaning of column cherish carry out to rise in price, this also forces butcher enterprise to must be sold at high price, can say have no way to back down. Liu Tong of manager of department of market of new hair ground expresses, because fleshy price is exorbitant, go more than even the price level of year of the corresponding period, had shown to the inhibition of demand, the directest expression is the near future those who transfer the market is white the phenomenon that return a factory compares a pig general. What butcher factory transfers the market is white the pig is inside sale time and cannot sell work off entirely, butcher factory would rather assembles a car afresh again factory of carry back butcher, also not be willing to depreciate sale.
"Because the agent depreciates,the price of sales promotion is deficit. Basically be in the process of the sale so: It is this price, be willing to want to be about, do not be willing not to want. The agent does not have whirly leeway, and although factory of near future butcher wants to depreciate sales promotion, business door also is not willing to be purchased more, because everyday sales volume basically so big, business door increases after purchasing, also sell do not drop " .
From interview be informed, breed end at present bullish sentiment is stronger, a lot of pig farm expect to sell a higher price. Can judge on put together so, pig value is short-term will still maintain go up easily to drop hard posture, this kind of tendency of the market is not some a few big groups to be able to be controlled.
2021 pig price or not under 15 yuan / jinAlthough pig value is short-term bullish, but breed door still should notice, calm dot butcher will be measured November already annulus comparing is added 14.5% , add compared to the same period 49.8% , successive 4 months annulus increases than appearing compared to the same period, say be growth to understand a pork supply.
As we have learned, at present Zhengzhou content sheds harbor homebred goods can deliver goods normally, import still needs to await, so one part aspic is tasted be about to flow into the market stage by stage, as each district aspic tastes market lift a ban, or the city after alleviating supplies tight situation.
Zhang Cheng also expresses, annual this is nodded is pig price fastigium, basis before experience judgement, passed after January 10, the price may want a callback, calculate the price to be not dropped this year, the possibility that continues to soare also is not very tall, predicting whole nation all valence won't break through 20 yuan / jin.
Prices of the city after the personage inside many course of study is right is more hopeful, prices of this wave height or will maintain to March. Shang Haian thinks, pig price was in exalted concussion 2021. To 4, macroeconomic will improve May, pork consumption can pick up.
Yunnan advance fills beneficial science and technology to breed Wen Xiaokun of limited company manager to express rather, pig price estimated 2021 won't under 15 yuan / jin. Liu Zejun of general manager of limited company of technology of live thing of family of Chengdu general Lai also thinks, price of fat first half of the year 2021 pig won't under 15 yuan / jin, quotations of price of pig of this wave height can be maintained March.
Collect ox hill is planted vise general manager of pig breeding limited company 10 thousand long China the view of approve of Liu Zejun, think to be able to keep present pig price first quarter, will go up with respect to meeting end March situation. Likelihood price of pig of the end of the year reached fall after a rise 12.5 yuan 2021 / or so jins.
Sound of pig price ·Herd of Wuhan day stud stock is finite Zhao Zukai of liability company general manager: The prices of before 2021 3 quarters is more hopeful, major person reckons 2021 pigs price is in 22 yuan generally / kilogram, I think the 2nd quarter is likely is high point, be in 22 yuan / kilogram above.
Farming letter interconnection is presiding abundant of Xia Chen of live pig analyst: Forecast 2021 live pig all valence can be in 22-24 yuan / kilogram, the trend is before tall hind low. The trade is very at present much cost of enterprise breed aquatics had gone to 20 yuan / kilogram, be equal to possibly 2021 time of half an year can be touched come up against cost line. But the cost line of whole 2021 industry can be reduced, the cost difference between the enterprise is very big also. Forecast pig price nadir to be able to appear in 3 quarters, the enterprise with cost bad control will get very big challenge.
Liu Manqiu of president of Inc. of Hunan Xin An Annong herd: Predict pig price was reduced 2021 reach 12 yuan / jin, need not fear price of next year pig falls so that be in a complete mess too too, unapt still drop to cost line the following.
big group company of farming herd food (China) assistant president Xu Chunyu: First quarter price of end live pig whether defend 25 yuan / kilogram it is a crucial window. At the appointed time epidemic situation will produce bigger effect to market supply and demand, if at the appointed time the price does not defend 25 yuan / kilogram, criterion price estimation can glide all the way, and if was defended, annual price is met relatively strong.
Henan Tian Kanghong exhibits purchase chief inspector Pan Xiaocheng: Market of second half of the year did not decide the factor is bigger still 2021. It is aspic flesh entrance estimates whether farther to the limit of one's capacity first, it is can numerous sow and circumstance of quantity of live pig amount of livestock on hand second. Predict 2021 second half of the year, can numerous sow and quantity of live pig amount of livestock on hand can return to normal basically age level, the price anticipates maintain in 19-23 yuan / kilogram.
Eminent achieves Zhang Lili of researcher of industry of information live pig: Below the premise that does not produce epidemic disease of major information about and appraisal of an epidemic and major policy to change, 2021 pig price or the state that present integral be issued to lower levels, second half of the year is produced can be released or quicken, although just meet the Mid-autumn Festival is carried by September 2021 brace up, prices presence is little go up likelihood, but overall predict in September 2021 live pig of portion whole nation all valence or in 21.5-22.5 yuan / kilogram.
PS: Above viewpoint arranges times of net of herd of make a fresh start, negotiable securities to wait for public report.
