Beijing of Xinhua News Agency on January 11 report (reporter Ma Yue like that) it is hog futures appears on the market to trade the 2nd times after 11 days day, agreement of hog futures brunt falls stop, drop amount to 8% , sign up for 26030 yuan / ton, live pig spot price already also was turned round by 2020 rise prices. Market analysis, industrial orgnaization uses futures set protect a mechanism, because value of this dish of face drops quickly to the market to price of year end pig anticipate. Live pig is produced can restoring, hog cycle or already entered phase of be issued to lower levels.
Since hog futures appeared on the market on January 8, all fronts of contract of 3 hog futures drops. Shen Mohong source considers to analyse, because futures price reflects the market to prospective spot price anticipate, as produce can with supply chase season to restore, annual pig price anticipates before will be being shown tall hind small state. Hang out one's shingle market of remarkable prep above expects fiducial price is the main reason that causes a day to drop greatly.
Live pig price will be greeted in December seasonal rise. Occupy the data that national statistic bureau releases 11 days, in December 2020, pork price annulus is compared by the fall November 2020 6.5% turn to rise 6.5% . Market analysis, the main reason that rise in price depends on new year's day drawing near, the demand of the form such as quantity of butcher enterprise stock up increases, and drop of northward air temperature quickly, live pig allocates cost to increase make supply is affected. Aspic tastes goods not it is good that free also makes pork giving birth to delicacy receives benefit, the live pig that prop up rises in price.
As we have learned, at present live pig spot price begins exalted already fall after a rise from last week. According to association of Chinese stock raising, 11 days of live pig (outside 3 yuan) average price is 35.65 yuan / kilogram, relatively before one day drops 0.12 yuan / kilogram. The country believes Qin Duogui of futures produce analyst to express, at present pork price is in position of on the high side, downstream consumption is accepted degree inferior, together with south bloats dried meat demand is close to ending, later period of merchandise on hand or fall after a rise.
Data origin: Association of Chinese stock raising
In will for a long time look, home is produced can restoring. Press statistic of agricultural country ministry, can numerous sow and live pig amount of livestock on hand had approached normal a particular year 9 into. Build change extend dimensions pig farm to accelerate answer of put into production to raise. Medicinal powder raise door filling column enthusiasm also is rising ceaselessly.
Source analyst expresses Shen Mohong, monitor data according to association of Chinese stock raising, came in June 2020 in November, 600 dimensions are planted pig of the foal at the beginning of pig farm compared to the same period increase rate is respectively 46.7% , 51.8% , 53.1% , 47.7% , 43.5% , 38.5% . In the epidemic situation that be not acute communicable diseases relatively stable premise falls, supply of follow-up academic fertilizer pig rises month by month apparently, the possibility that live pig price exceeds early days to be nodded high is inferior.
Market analysis, came 2021 2022 pig price or will enter interval of concussion be issued to lower levels, element of industry boom drive is abate, "The pig is periodic " perch already became an industry to anticipate consistently downward.
