Author: " farming money jewel " Wu Hao of reporter of new herd network sunshine
Agitate of 2020 wind and cloud, gradually far already go. 2021 good luck are heavy, goose-step pace goes.
Just go 2020, no matter be the course of study that raise a pig or whole world, can says to exceed a year of the imagination, happened too much the issue that never has considered before us. However time cannot flow backwards, accumulate experience, draw a lesson, we 2021 the travel before still wanting to continue.
Face a brand-new year, no matter be individual or enterprise, country, need to be in forecast reasonably under, make new program. Although be hit facial risk is not little, but the author still thinks those who belong to his to continue to give out here raised pig employment 2021 8 guess greatly, conclusion has time to see reason oneself, analytic reason welcomes everybody to be discussed together.
Guess one: Can you be born do the first give column 30 million enterprise?Tycoon dilate can says what raised pig employment 2020 is thematic. A lot of people are in exclamation the world that China raises pig industry future to will become a tycoon. Recently, 10 appear on the market greatly the enterprise that raise a pig also handed over the report 2020, their always gave column to achieve 53.26 million, can have reached the whole nation really year those who give column 10% . View specific data carefully nevertheless, compare the grand end that places at the beginning of 2020, true 100% finish those who give column mark to have herd only actually former, new hope, Jin Xinnong 3. And the only month December gives almost all company column Dou Yuanchao is other month double above, have the feeling that exercise fills before the dot terms begins quite.
This also gives kept a tremendous suspense 2021, the insanity December is for annals only really after all operate temporarily, be still the tycoon is produced is what can you erupt germinant? After all because the target was done not have 2020,each big company the slightest amount or degree is done not have finish and worry, the target 2021 still continues to raise the price of the commodities, the target giving column of 10 big tycoons adds up be as high as 144 million, achieve 2.5 times 2020 directly. Among them Wen target 30 million, state 25 million, new hope 15 million, the herd principle that serves as the old sold close child, express to specific target is announced again in annals, but divulge 50 million producing also can be leakage of bully gas side. Even if cannot all target that finish, appeared 2021 the first 30 million company that the head gives column, is looking time problem only?
Guess 2: Can the vaccine that be not acute communicable diseases still continue " jump ticket " ?Jump ticket this word may be not quite accurate, after all the government never has said when the vaccine that be not acute communicable diseases wants to appear on the market, end agricultural country ministry is led from which, emphasizing from beginning to end, the research and development of the vaccine that be not acute communicable diseases must want to hold to science, efficient advance. Nevertheless to raising pig person for, each research and development that was not pestilential seedling 2020 makes progress, the heat that can cause the vaccine that be not acute communicable diseases one round want to appear on the market immediately really is discussed.
Come to 2021 nevertheless, the industry had had very big change to be not the manner of vaccine of acute communicable diseases. The vaccine of illegal blame acute communicable diseases such as white bottle seedling is destroyed to what the industry causes make many people that raise a pig be killed by its, the government also increases blow strength for many times. More important is, one part has what the technology has actual strength to raise pig big company, had built complete biology safety to defend the system that accuses to be not acute communicable diseases, go up somehow, they had not needed to be not pestilential seedling, oppose not quite safe and effective blame plague young plant even. Can say the progress as the course of study that raise a pig, the vaccine that be not acute communicable diseases has been the position of the Immanuel before this no longer. 2021, if be not vaccine of acute communicable diseases to be able to come out, it wants to examine in the round through be being mixed strictly absolutely above all necessarily.
Guess 3: Xin Guanfeng still is in nearly, continue to become an enterprise to popularize mainstream channel on the line?Epidemic situation of new 2020 coronal overturned a lot of industries, the course of study that raise a pig is likewise indispensable. Cloud classroom, the cloud serves, cloud promotion can wait the activity on a series of lines a moment to develop flourishingly, once the traditional line of business that raise a pig is abrupt go up successfully also " the cloud " . Control as epidemic situation of course, the congress below numerous multi-line of 2020 second half of the year also gathers together reopen, person gas is likewise hot. Raised pig course of study to open this channel on the line already successfully nevertheless.
Recently, as the fall of air temperature, domestic and international epidemic situation situation becomes austere rise. Each provision that raises pig course of study to want state of strict comply with above all for certain does good epidemic situation to prevent accuse. Be in at the same time whole winter, it is consummate half an year, the activity below the line with original industry will face time-out or stopped risk again. And teach through the market last year, each are big this year the enterprise shifts focus the line to go up to will reduce a lot of resistance undoubtedly again. And the one part that waits to become the life that raise a pig to live truly as frequency of online conference, nearsightedness. This kind popularizes the change of channel, will no longer because of epidemic situation, make a long-term real trend. Everyday punctual in the evening open a mobile phone to see direct seeding lecture, perhaps can become the normal state of the most person that raise a pig.
Guess 4: Does a central file pay close attention to the course of study that raise a pig mainly again?In the center of 2020 a file mentions the course of study that raise a pig with the length of unprecedented, 9 big move established annual the wind direction of policy of all the trade that raise a pig. All sorts of industry raising a pig that reach a place from the country subsequently give aid to policy emerges in endlessly, supported the industry that raise a pig strongly answer produce. Believed the course of study that raise a pig still can be the key of central attention 2021, although of live pig answer produce had obtained very great progress, but still do not have after all hundred finish, of pig price rising also mirrorred this. Of the course of study that raise a pig answer produce the standard that achieves thoroughly, besides the refreshment of amount of livestock on hand, pig price returns to normal truly just is most the index of core.
2021, end from which place, still meet will produce firmly protect for serving as a key, but may not still can resemble promoting new project of many mount a horse in that way last year, balance the each respect demand such as environmental protection, economy, undertake the more long-term program that raise a pig just is to had been done be mixinged more scientificly give aid to the practice of the course of study that raise a pig.
Guess 5: Can pig price fall a cost line?Pig price can weighs those who raise eternity of pig course of study to guess. Although the decision principle of pig price actually very simple, it is supply demand relations. Accompany forever with pig price however another guessing greatly is China has how many pig now after all, future can have how many pig again. A number of simple amount of livestock on hand of can numerous sow, 10 industries person can give out 10 version. For instance square steel of the official end 2020 announces live pig amount of livestock on hand is successive 9 months grow, restore all the year round level 90% . But price of pig of the corresponding period however open new round of rocket, partial area regain 20 yuan / jin col of this important psychology.
And and different last year, the everybody at the beginning of 2020 is clear that pig price scarcely will be low, a person with a discerning eye knows to many is short of a pig, the fact later also test and verify. To the pig price 2021, the difference of the opinion is not general big. A very interesting example, farming money jewel mentions an analyst to think price of 2021 pig of second half of the year reach fall after a rise 25 yuan in report of before new herd net two days / kilogram, have a lot of reader comments actually, it is clerical error unit, should be 25 yuan / jin ability is right. And two of this polarity are opposite oneself idea is confident.
To a group of people of same interest of pig price be expected to fall, old man of industry thering is no lack of. Pig price of Tao Yishan considers authority 5 yuan natural familiar to the ear can detailed. Liu Yong good near future ever also expressed: To 2021 in year or second half of the year, pig price renews relatively reasonable price stage by stage, can appear even to 2022 pig price is low the likelihood that crosses cost line. Old man people bottom gas nature of conversation is to originate the strong dilate of oneself enterprise.
Nevertheless the author feels trade public figure can see this problem from the point of view with new more, the smell of capital is the most acute, the hog futures that appeared on the market on January 8 is a brand-new reference. And those who make a lot of people did not think of is, corresponding in November 2021 the LH2111 agreement of pig price, used two to trade merely day, 29680 yuan from open quotation / ton, dropped all the way 23250 yuan / ton, drop panel height is amounted to 21.7% , the pig price of this price correspondence is 11.6 yuan / jin. Is this meeting the real hog price this year November?
Guess 6: Entrance flesh scene no longer?China imported the flesh to predict to exceed 4 million tons 2020, not only record-breaking, and searched the record directly one times. Itself of the course of study that raise a pig does not welcome to import the flesh for certain, after be not acute communicable diseases nevertheless, on ten million ton pork breach is placed in that, the growth that imports the flesh cannot be held back. But light relies on to import the flesh is to do not have a law to solve porky to supply thoroughly for certain. Nevertheless the entrance flesh 2021 will face a brand-new resistance, risk of new coronal epidemic situation. Near future China tastes outer packing check to give new coronal positive in entrance aspic time and again, the source that has many native land epidemic situation even imports aspic to taste namely. Considering the seriousness of foreign epidemic situation, the epidemic situation risk that imports the flesh is afraid will long-standing. A lot of consumer begin to choose actively to reject to import the flesh, this certain also level is pushed tall pig price. 2021, entrance flesh wants to continue to grow again, be afraid difficulty is not little.
Guess 7: Does the building raise a pig to face actual combat test?The building raises a pig to be in 2020 also is very hot, ceaseless refresh building raises the employment that raise a pig the height of the pig. If say dinkum floor height, more or less to still produce the interest of stunt a bit. The world that herd formed by 21 6 buildings pig house formerly recently is the greatest monomer year give column the completion of 2.1 million pig farm, can say to announce the building raises a pig to had made new occupation standard truly. From at the beginning buildings of a lot of misgive of the person that raise a pig raise a pig to be in biology safety, turn pig carry pig, dung corrupt of the respect such as processing practical. Of course each business that does a building to raise a pig also gave out oneself plan. Can say the building raises a pig 1 timeses, return the level with right neither one. More important is, making much larger building raise pig project to was returned 2020 is to building phase only. 2021, can large quantities of one buildings raise pig project to want to take a pig truly, and progressively full column. Practice is to examine the only standard of the truth, raise a pig to the building for, put oneself in another's position of inevitable 2021 conference reveals different design between the cent of real actor of low quality, naughty stay infirmly strong, the building raises a pig 2 periods are coming.
Guess 8: The 80 president after, 00 the field after is long, does the course of study that raise a pig raise green storm?The course of study that raise a pig is known as forever sunny industry all the time. In recent years, body of the crowd that raise a pig also is in produce change sadly, the pig such as course of study of Liu Chang, Lin Feng, contented comes on 2 generation begin to become each big the leader of farming herd enterprise, the employee that pig farm reachs below also is in comprehensive and young change, the author has encountered the pig farm field that was born two 1998 to grow. The abidance of an industry develops to need new blood necessarily swarm into. And these youths enter the line of business that raise a pig, be not simple shift. What the youth brings is brand-new thinking also will be modelled afresh whole the course of study that raise a pig, they will be changed with the intelligence of itself of the course of study that raise a pig, the tide that intensive turns supplements each other, the course of study of future that raise a pig will be the agriculture of a tradition no longer, however an industry that faces future truly.
PS: The article represents individual point of view only.