"Survival deviation " it is to be in the error of a thinking that we often encounter in daily life, very may much person is right " survival deviation " not clear, if mastered this knowledge,nod actually, can live to have profit greatly to ours, what sharing to everybody here today is " survival deviation " :
Survival deviation, also cry " deviation of the person that live " or " deviation of the person that survive " , it is a kind of common logic fallacious, means can see the result that be chosen through some kind and produces only, and did not realize chosen course, because of this oversight the crucial information that is chosen. When say simply even if doing statistic to analyse, we are only dedicated the example that succeeds at those, reach thereby in order to slant without exception complete wrong conclusion. This thing still has a lot of nickname, for instance " silent data " , " the the dead won't talk " etc.
During the Second World War, england sends bomber to fly across a the English Channel everyday almost, a lot of air man sacrifice unfortunately in this venture operation. To raise air man live opportunity, statistical Wo Dejiao awards Ying Jun to just ask, use its to be offerred in the professional knowledge of statistical respect about " how should be the plane strengthened defend, ability is reduced by the odds of gunfire down " relevant proposal. The proposal that Professor Ward offers is very strange: Armor position ought not to be to play the wing with the most concentrated aperture, the tail place that did not get shot however.
His idea is: Having 1000 wound since the plane of the wing of 100 aperture can return to base peacefully, these apparent playing aperture can damage a plane scarcely. And get shot the position and the opportunity for combat that return a plane to differ, all fail safety returns to base. That is to say, the plane that returns in safety suffers the place of the attack that play hole, it is deadly least of all place, won't bring about a plane to fall so. This kind of deadly mistake that statistician makes to the engineer took a name ─ ─ " survival deviation " . Say simply, it is we can consider survival only, direct oversight the person of those death, why can this give existent work to lead false appearance namely advocate because of.
We are seeing our unfamiliar when the industry, becloud of place of deviation of the person that often be survived by this kind, newspaper magazine is the company case that is aimed at those alleged successes constantly more, gift a few theatricalized stories, let us think the success is hands-down. Actually, these successful tales that consider as a result just are perfected, they are induced the successful gist that go out just often is drawn whole inside among them one small spells a plan, these survive person of 1% are able to talk aloud, let us think foreground is valued one piece, we did not see however other the competitor of 99% is early battlefield of silently die in the last ditch! Do poineering work so, investing Yi Ru is, those rely on to fry a stock estate becomes rich overnight and of reputation big a confusion of voices " expert " people, the opposite minority that just survives after all (prep let alone has some of person to just report only the good news, when making money ballyhoo, be out of pocket when frowsty not utter a word) , if we these are small medicinal powder door blind follows them to jump blind blend, often can get skeleton to not have only finally put just.
Once understand thoroughly " survival deviation " trap, can avoid to make wrong decision: Do not see successful example only, also want to survey the experience of loser at the same time, ability more suit practically evaluates successful opportunity. Even if is loser or the place that have worth while study, for example what strategy does not have effectiveness. Want to succeed, must to loser go on a pilgrimage for Buddhist scriptures.
