The preexistence this life with Japanese room undone bubble
-- one of overviews
Estate bubble of Japan began 1991 undone, last to today all the time. End 2017, accumulative total of price of average room of Japanese whole nation drops from the high point 1991 67% , 6 metropolitan (Japan 6 metropolitan those who point to is: Tokyo, renown Gu Wu, Osaka, Kobe, yokohama and Kyoto) drop for 75% . This series article, the room bubble that we review Japan is undone the experience of around, with Shi Weijian.
Index of graph Japan price
Estate market of Japan has produced serious foam, it is the target that we study mainly, the appearance of make estate market bubble in new chiliad compares the United States the bubble it may be said at Japan is a be outshone. Compare at the United States, land area of Japan is narrow, population density is high, an insularity longing to land degree, mainland country nature cannot is likened to. And the 3 big factors of 20 centuries are same to the influence of global estate, and bigger to influence strength of Japan. After all Japanese war destroys degree to be gotten than American miserable intense much, afterwar housing construction job also compares American difficulty to want big. And the city that brings about as a result of the war changes a process to stop drop with population, in afterwar erupt centrally. These were destined, the congenital element with more serious speculation of Japanese estate market.
Price index, real rental index, housing has graph Japan bona fide to lead and be covered door than
According to relevant statistical data, we arrange scale on graph, because Japanese government statistic did not announce house price, is the price that announce only. We are analysing reason when estate market of Japan, data of total use price will substitute house price (OECD also is such doing) . We had discussed the concern of price and house price in preamble, we think this is both substantially identical, reason also is not had necessary undertake distinguishing strictly.
We discover, relatively as similar as the United States point is, set door than, the residence is had lead such index as much the long-term wave motion of indecipherable Japan price. The estate that population regards the influencing factor that we set out from the first impression as indecipherable also Japan is fluctuant.
Graph Japan population and price
1953, of Japan cover door than for 0.9, in Japanese housing considerably below construction, come to was covered 1968 door than rising to 1.01, on the whole residential market supply and demand achieved a balance. But, house price is in 1968 not go no further, true land price rose all the time 1991, compare 1968 103% , nominal land price rose 578% . Set door rise than also was being climbed all the way 1968, till recent 2013 (census a particular year) the data that publish is 1.15. This and constant manage nots agree with, if we regard commodity as to look estate, supply demand relations decides the value, below the circumstance of supply exceeds demand, according to model of supply and demand forecasting a result is: Of the price go up cannot exceed inflationary rate at most. But, the fact is not however such, and do not discover such result in an example only, the data time that we cover is as long as 100 years, the United States, Japan appeared such circumstance. So, such result adopts model of supply and demand cannot explain.
We look again cover an effect that compares pair of rent indexes, covered 1968 door come than rising 1 later, real rental index saw a top 1972, 1972, was as long as 2014 in 40 old time, real rental index had not appeared to rise, keep stable all the time however. Compare at estate value, hire is a very good commodity attribute (the behavior of the relet on the market is opposite less, be opposite namely the speculation of hire is less) , so model of supply and demand can forecast hire go situation. Hire was offerred for us measure housing price to whether produce foamy a measure.
With this, unlike most economist the section method to Japanese estate phylogeny, we are passed set door than the change with price, we differentiate estate market of Japan for 4 phase, 1945, was postwar economy convalescence 1955, cover door than dropping, the price rises, what the Japan of this phase basically solves is to have a meal problem; 1955, 1970 around, cover door than rising, the price also rises. Build for Japanese estate period, during this Japan solved housing problem; And from 1970 around, 1991, cover door than achieving 1 later, the price still is rising, it is Japanese estate after supply and demand is balanced the price still is in rise, for Japanese estate bubble period; 1991, was Japan 30 years parting 2015, cover door than rising, house price drops all the way, up to 2015, photograph of index of bona fide price is compared 1991 drop for 67.7% , nominal price index falls for 65.8% .
Market of form Japan estate is different the feature of level
(unfinished to be continued)
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