This is a heavy topic, but must want to tell everybody. Last in economy below stagnant circumstance, each industries entered the cycle of be issued to lower levels, but the stock market is gone against situation and on, with economy main area runs in the opposite direction, this kind of prices cannot persist for a long time surely.
Review the phylogeny of stock market of these a few years of China, chinese stock market appears on the market the company of a money is increasing, card inspect is met today a policy tomorrow a policy, it is with civilian the policy that disputes benefit, primary purpose is 3: It is the help appears on the market the company encircles more money; 2 it is to receive more trading poundage and taxation; 3 it is to liquidate shareholder fund especially the belongings of the middle class, prevent currency Peng to go up. Gentleman does not see advance wave upon wave of how many shareholder, no matter be bovine city or Xiong Fu,final summary comes down, no matter be a shareholder,still be base civilian, be as high as the participator deficit of 90% above, chinese stock market became fortune disintegrator. And appear on the market the company knows to encircle money only, never know redound, cash share out bonus is miser, one wool is not dialed, do at most false 10 send 10 even 10 send 15, china appears on the market company today again financing, will add tomorrow hair, see the group takes more and more money only, never take true gold silver to share out bonus truly. Generally speaking so big risk redound always wants prep above bank to be put surely, but Chinese stock market is not completely so meeting thing. Appear on the market finally company cash is encircled almost, prodigal about the same also, capital is transferred almost, still can hit ST, change a banker to tell a story to encircle money afresh again afresh. Chinese stock market falls in the dominant of concerned branch, apparently see the prosperity that now is holiday of a Lv, it is ceaseless hair new prosperity, it is a massive Pang fraud only substantially actually, take away your capital not only and also do not return even interest, and the blood that those who stay is shareholder, interagency goes all out, chinese shareholder conducts well.
National stock market is the place of an investment originally, the dimensions of the quality that the fund that collects people investment through the stock market uses help enterprise to increase a business, expanded reproduction is mixed develop manage will promote socioeconomy etc, investor needs basically to assume an enterprise to run unsuccessful risk only, popularly, although this kind of investment has a risk compared with deposit bank, but the business is overall be gain, the bonus redound Yuan Chao of the enterprise passes bank interest, such coming that realize the win-win of investor and enterprise, accordingly this is people of country of each market economy's general investment pattern.
But, if these appearing on the market,the enterprise stripped the partner right of investor, also do not distribute even extra dividend or symbolic component burns investor, investor had been to incur a risk, this is the loss that the system causes, investor is bereft the right was to be stripped above all due investment is managed win a financial power, investor basically lost the property that invests redound, bosses took the money deal of investor to have a deficit is investor has bad luck, but credit is disregarded when earning money and bilk, they are OK this account protracted the ability after hundreds years cashs, OK and protracted arrive forever, can wait for clear Pan Shicai of this business failure to cash, the trick that bilks account is figured deeply more, the company earned money or investor has bad luck, this is not investment any more substantially, it is to be cheated, bought stock result is to become the chip that bought gamble to use, because be remained only,the stock comes to try one's luck in the drift along in the stock market, gamble namely only a road.
But will still should have a fair regulation to money to gamble with, however gambling house of this stock market however place of Mr Wu Jinglian says no less than: Some people can see the shareholder's shop sign, shareholders see the shop sign that is less than the other side however, so be being betted repeatedly so also is not, it is to cheat completely, and chinese mainland stock market is such " the stock market " , say mainland stock market is Pang fraud so.
Is the risk still good luck?Trade war, estate bubble, the RMB devalues, HK dollar devalues, england takes off Europe, crisis of local government debt, we seem to facing incomputable crisis, what did such crisis bring our capital market?
Chinese capital market is worth institute of plan of circumstance as above to show from the appraise that came 20 this years to 2018 1999, just valued picture from 09, after 10 years, appraise is worth a curve to become a lot of smoother, be Chinese market is absent is the spec faddish? Either, an among them reason is I took cycle of 20 years to look, and the appraise inside the period of time that 90 time just established Chinese capital market is worth too tall, brought about in last few years relatively reasonable appraise value can appear the curve is like a few smoother, so does the appraise value that we go a little above all have many after all tall?
2002 peak value, value of estimate of our Shanghai market is 59 times, value of Shenzhen market estimate is 154 times.
2009 when, value of our Shanghai field appraise is highest to 84, shenzhen market arrives 30.48.
Our the year before last year city of 15 years of oxen when, how much is our market estimate worth, shanghai 20, shenzhen 70, do poineering work board 140.
18 years of Children's Festivals this day, our market estimate is worth Shanghai 13.67 times, shenzhen 29.05 times, do poineering work board point to 54.09 times.
Compare at the history relatively, the health with our capital unprecedented market (appraise is worth angle) , light and history are compared, somebody can tell this kind of appraise to be worth a method to biased somewhat certainly, right, it is really such.
The absolute value that then we consider us even is expensive. We and United States will contrast, 500 appraise are worth mark general of the United States is 23 times, our Shanghai is deep 300 it is 13 times, also be a dog-cheap price.
That returns somebody to want to ask certainly at that time, when that appraise value is so cheap, when can rise, I can regret only tell you, I also do not know.
October 2008 - in November, as a result of the country " one billion three hundred and eighty-five million four hundred and forty-seven thousand four hundred and twenty-four " policy is exciting, market estimate value rebounds quickly, see an end.
Began market estimate value to had reached floor 2011 around, but just appeared till 2014 apparent trend prices.
End in May 2018 end, market median again explore arrives the history is low around. When the opportunity can come, perhaps a few months, perhaps a few years, what nobody can guess is accurate. The ability that anybody did not forecast the market accurately (it is OK to if have voice,say, can say you encountered cheater only) ,
What I can tell you is, the market had entered on the history a few extremely bottom interval around. What we can do is value flat discovers when the market is underestimated and hold, the market leaves when the market is mad.
All the line is chosen 3 reduce ability surely greatly
From all in light of string characteristic, the more long-term all line, the security in investment is higher, but as a result of lag sex, often can lose better opportunity. Accordingly, if use onefold parameter merely all line, often can produce error, and to different parameter while use more effective. Below, the author is used for everybody introduction all line index is chosen 3 reduce ability surely greatly.
1, absolutely gold is forked
Absolutely gold fork is it is to point to 3 all line at the same time across, and those who produce across must be 3 cycle are shorter all line, at the same time from the top down must press megacycle period by short arrange to long order. For example, choose 5 days all line, 10 days all line, 20 days all the line mixes 60 days all line, criterion 3 of across all the line must be 5 days all line, 10 days all the line mixes 20 days all line, 60 days all the line is not across. In the meantime, when golden fork is formed, must according to 5 days all the line is in on, 10 days all line be placed in the middle, 20 days all are arranged what the line is falling orderly, cannot be being regarded otherwise is absolutely gold fork.
2, bull is arranged
All the bull of the line is arranged, be those who point to different parameter all line according to time from on downward arrange orderly, and be in at the same time rise a kind of condition all line configuration. Once the configuration that bull arranges is formed, mean go up with all possible means attack orderly, just keep on retreating for nothing right now, share price can be being guided with all possible means necessarily fall to go up smoothly attack.
3, all line agglutinate
All line agglutinate is to point to a few different accident is periodic all line, go up in same position the level moves, and the configuration that each other are close to coincide. All the formation of line agglutinate the reason is, share price passes a paragraph longer after arranging, the investor of different style holds a cost approach to agree, it is to get thereby all line approach parallel moves. From the point of K line configuration, right now share price should be to undertake box form is arranged.
All market of line agglutinate occurrence suggestion is about to appear to turn greatly situation, all the line once disperse the internal heat with sudorifics, turn situation also will begin. Turn specificly momentum direction can be united in wedlock commonly all the market before line agglutinate appears goes situation undertake judging. If all before line agglutinate, the market was experienced go up considerably raise, criterion the market is about to enter Great Bear town; If all before the line is close to agglutinate, the market was experienced drop greatly and already horizontal dish trim period of time, welcome new development opportunity likely.
All the skill of advanced actual combat of the line
One, golden spider and dead spider
After stock course is arranged, climb up when rising, short-term all line, metaphase all line, go up respectively wear long-term all line, can form a cusp up non-standard triangle, this triangle is called " valence is held in the palm " ; Manage together, when fall after a rise is down after stock course is arranged, short-term all line by go up to pass through downward metaphase all line and long-term all line, next metaphase all the line passes through downward long-term all line, with respect to the non-standard triangle that can form a cusp to be down, this triangle is called " valence is pressed " . And golden spider and dead spider are valence holds the as most typical as valence pressing expression form in the palm.
1. Golden spider
Golden spider, it is to point to short-term all line, metaphase all line and long-term all the line is first by go up and fall from disperse the internal heat with sudorifics gradually convergent, across is formed in same point, next 3 all the line continues up disperse the internal heat with sudorifics, all the line also arranges change to arrange appearance for bull by the nominal before, if plan institute is shown. Golden spider is bullish signal, investor is seeing should be given priority to more with doing after this graph.
When investor is undertaking operating according to golden spider configuration, should notice the following.
(1) when grail or all when route system gives cash spider form, investor can be in up emanative is initiative level average. Pursue medium in day K line, of golden spider configuration optimal buy a dot to be commonly all line across up emanative is earlier.
(2) can give cash spider form, because,be 3 all the line produced resonance, so golden spider configuration is held in the palm to the parity of the power that prop up of share price should betterer.
(3) the way of standard of node government tomorrow of golden spider configuration forms radiation to take, go to the future of share price situation have prop up and urge action.
(4) the quantity clinchs a deal in the process that fashions in golden spider to the limit of one's capacity is more apparent, the reliability of bullish signal is bigger. If share price emits huge amount when convergent across, explain brunt is sucked chip end, rise can be expected soon.
(5) after golden spider is formed, all route system up emanative point of view is older, the potential that prospective share price rises is greater.
(6) after golden spider configuration is finished, share price shrinks quantity callback arrives some all when propping up, the line is obtained is low suction the main chance. Share price once of upper part of spider of gold of breakthrough of to the limit of one's capacity arranging platform is more better buy an opportunity.
(7) after golden spider configuration appears, as long as all route system still maintains up shape of disperse the internal heat with sudorifics, investor can be done actively much, should keep wait-and-see conversely.
(8) golden spider configuration often appears in a few a dark horse in, accordingly, once investor discovers this configuration is about to capture buy opportunity, in time, although hold,also should not use a few fund greatly small wrestle.
If plan institute is shown, on July 21, 2010, hunan invests (000548) 5 days, 10 days mix 20 days all the line forms golden spider configuration, and the neck line position that share price to the limit of one's capacity rose that day and broke through double bottom. These two kinds of signal have bullish the meaning that buys, and the reliability that both mutual confirm raised signal. Accordingly, investor is OK active that day average.
2. Dead spider
Dead spider is to point to short-term all line, metaphase all line and long-term all the line is first by fall and go up from disperse the internal heat with sudorifics gradually convergent, across is formed in same point, next 3 all the line continues to be down disperse the internal heat with sudorifics, all the line also arranges change to arrange appearance for nominal by the bull before. If plan institute is shown. Dead spider is signal of be expected to fall, investor should be given priority to for nothing with doing after seeing this figure.
When investor is undertaking operating according to dead spider configuration, should notice the following.
(1) the power of dead spider configuration nots allow small gaze, when all route system appears when dead spider configuration, investor can be in be down emanative initiative phase is decisive sell piece. Pursue medium in day K line, of dead spider configuration optimal sell giving a point also is across commonly that day.
(2) because,the formation of dead spider is all route system happened to be down resonance, so dead spider configuration is pressed to the pressure rate of exchange of share price should a few stronger,
(3) the way of standard of node government tomorrow of dead spider configuration forms radiation to take, go to the future of share price situation have block up and suppress effect.
(4) when if die,the spider is formed, clinch a deal the quantity assumes ceaseless and atrophic position, criterion signal of be expected to fall is more reliable.
(5) longer, extent jumps over the time that early days share price rises big, the strength that the share price after dead spider is formed drops also can be jumped over accordingly big.
(6) after dead spider configuration is finished, when some all receives block near the line, share price rebounds is to sell the main chance that give. Share price drops of lower part of broken dead spider arranging platform also is better sell an opportunity.
(7) after dead spider configuration appears, as long as all route system still maintains be down shape of disperse the internal heat with sudorifics, investor should continue to do empty.
If plan institute is shown, card index is in on after achieving the history that gives 6124.04 a little bit to be nodded high, appeared to grow. After two months, this appear rebound, rebound this to be given priority to with small positive line, explain to go up with all possible means accuse force weaker, rebounded this to keep the time that is less than a month only as expected, share price reemerges fall after a rise. Subsequently, 10 days, 60 days mix 120 days all the line dies in same point forked, formed dead spider configuration. Of dead spider of on-line of half an year " noxiousness " unusual, if investor cannot leave in time, can be in only boundless drop wrist is clutched to heave a sigh on the road.
2, flood dragon dragon goes to sea with broken end hay cutter
When big positive line and big negative line are being walked out of in K line attempt, often mean prices to may appear change, and right now, line of these two kinds of K configuration and all the line is united in wedlock, form flood dragon to dragon goes to sea and decollation hay cutter configuration.
1. Flood dragon dragon goes to sea
Flood dragon dragon goes to sea, say one this world defeats multi-line again, it is to show one unplugs the ground and the big positive line that have is broken through continuously up short-term, metaphase and long-term all line, closing quotation price is located in these all over the line, if pursue,1-38 place is shown. Flood dragon dragon goes to sea, be a kind go up apparently attack signal, metaphor share price is long like lie the flood dragon dragon in the sea, abrupt rise high into the air and case, fly towering.
Investor is in go to sea according to flood dragon dragon when configuration undertakes operating, should notice the following.
(1) flood dragon dragon goes to sea configuration goes out to drop now commonly evening or low price interval, early days share price goes situation for the horizontal stroke dish arrange or small concussion.
(2) flood dragon dragon goes to sea express to be attacked on abrupt hair force with all possible means, it is strong bullish signal, investor is unfavorable continue to look empty.
(3) flood dragon dragon goes to sea after configuration appears, radical investor is OK and bold follow-up, and dovish investor can observe a few days again, when share price stand firm all on the line when again average is not late.
(4) the substance of big positive line is longer, closing quotation price is apart from all the position of the line is higher, bullish signal is stronger.
(5) forming flood dragon dragon to go to sea configuration while should have clinch a deal the to the limit of one's capacity of the quantity cooperates, if clinch a deal,the quantity magnifies without synchronism, criterion the reliability of signal will be a few poorer.
(6) flood dragon dragon goes to sea when forming, all the line may be bull is arranged, also may be nominal is arranged, also form golden fork likely.
(7) on week K line or attempt of lunar K line dragon of occurrence flood dragon goes to sea configuration of this kind of technology, bullish signal is more strong, investor can weigh a storehouse to be bought.
If plan institute is shown, june 2011, amount to in ST (600074) dish of entire level that is in level sex bottom. On June 22, 2011, this to the limit of one's capacity rises, share price breaks through 5 days continuously, 10 days mix 20 days all line, receive line of this world of smooth foot of a bareheaded. See this kind of case, radical investor is OK and right amount buy, dovish investor can observe a few days again, await share price come to a stop all intervene again after the line.
2. Broken end hay cutter
Broken end hay cutter, say one shade defeats multi-line again, it is to show a big negative line that drops considerably is down successive breakthrough short-term, metaphase and long-term all line, closing quotation price is located in these all under the line, if pursue,1-40 place is shown. Broken end hay cutter, it is signal of a kind of clear be expected to fall, metaphor share price rises momentum has couldn't be improved, the head will be broken by cut up with a hay cutter, dropping situation cannot be kept out.
When investor is undertaking operating according to configuration of broken end hay cutter, should notice the following.
(1) configuration of broken end hay cutter goes out to rise now commonly evening or higher-priced area, all route system presents convergent position commonly.
(2) broken end hay cutter expresses to just be cast suddenly for nothing dish dozen control share price, it is intense sell a signal. No matter be radical investor, still be dovish investor, in encounter this kind to walk along the ten million when situation to cannot continue to do much, and should decisive decrease a storehouse or be to check inventory.
(3) if a certain trade day, investor discovers line of a shade eats off many continuously all line, state configuration of broken end hay cutter is being formed.
(4) the substance of big negative line is longer, closing quotation price is apart from all the position of the line is smaller, signal of be expected to fall is stronger.
(5) if share price drops while, clinch a deal the quantity magnifies significantly, criterion the space that share price drops in the future is corresponding also bigger.
(6) when broken end hay cutter is formed, all the line may be nominal is arranged, also may be bull is arranged, also form dead fork likely.
(7) on week K line or attempt of lunar K line this plants hay cutter of occurrence broken end technical configuration, see empty signal more intense, investor should check inventory from.
If plan institute is shown, on May 23, 2011, relapsing in perch the Pu in the *ST of concussion (600084) to the limit of one's capacity drops, share price drops continuously defeat 5 days, 10 days mix 20 days all line, formed configuration of broken end hay cutter. This is intense see empty signal, investor should be in decisive that day carry out decrease a storehouse or make the same score a storehouse to operate, cannot have a bit hesitation. Be in after all so fatigued and weak go in situation, sell earlier piece, the loss is smaller.
3, 3 lines blossom
3 lines blossom is to point to 20 days, 120 days mix 250 days all after the line passes through through golden fork, like opening morning glory, form the special technical configuration that the bull of exceeding depart arranges. Want to obtain prep above grail to go up in city of each rounds of big ox super profit, choose 3 lines to blossom configuration is the most intuitionistic, the the most relaxed, most effective operation method.
3 lines blossom configuration basically can be divided be and line 3 lines blossom, suitable blossom to 3 lines and converse 3 lines blossom 3 sort. Configuration of these 3 kinds of technologies is very effective bullish buy signal.
1. And line 3 lines blossom
And line 3 lines blossom, it is to point to the initiative dot that blossoms in 3 lines, 120 days all line and 250 days all line distance is very adjacent and be in parallel condition, right now 20 days all line from issued two to break through this up all line, form golden fork. If plan institute is shown.
20 days all the line is in after be being broken through up, if share price to the limit of one's capacity rises considerably, explain and line 3 lines blossom configuration holds water. And line the cradle that 3 lines blossom often is old a dark horse of be pregnant with, once this configuration is formed, all route system will " open big flower " , prospective share price also will have very considerable go up. After the course rises for a long time, when 20 days all bend of line occurrence perch, look in prices of clew investor central line namely empty, should decisive sell piece, will gain profit time spit.
If plan institute is shown, jilin Ao Dong (000623) when share price is started from bottom, 120 days all the line mixes 250 days all the line is in exceeding and adjacent parallel condition. As share price rise, 20 days all the line is in same trade day go up early or late wore 120 days all the line mixes 250 days all line, form golden fork. This kind of configuration is and line 3 lines blossom configuration, this adumbrative later period will appear to rise considerably, it is relatively reliable buy signal.
From mental level, should ensure be in ignorance all the time but the condition that does not feel oneself are ignorant again is crucial. If be returned fitly a little cranky and blundering and contend for strong emulative better, if return have one's mind stuffed with ideological dominant thinking, it is top grade more; Technical level, want to dare be betted, dare to go up especially lever is betted. Choose the most popular breed technically, in its appraise is worth highest with outstanding achievement highest hour is decisive kill. Want to remember absolutelying refuse to to acknowledge a mistake finally, fall from where with respect to take a prone of on the spot.
When the person is arranged wave easily, make investment especially, if just meet these 2 years of outstanding achievement are outstanding, often see others also not pleasing to the eye conversation also rushed. Regrettablly this does not call self-confidence, cry dilettante. For the person to making investment, want forwardly forever for his trough period takes a place, this is not to install, understood however enough much investment history and the essence to investment have enough a kind of natural report after intimate knowledge. Abasement to the market may not makes you successful, but arrogant and conceited affirmation makes you hapless.
Life and investment have the place of a lot of likeness: Both be full of uncertainty substantially, but have promotion to get the better of the method of rate for a long time again; Than knowing what to do more important, it is to understand the business that cannot do absolutely what to have; Deciding what one life carries often is a few judgement and decision only; All sorts of short-term chance can be ironed to make the same score by time, final result is main be fairness; Did what thing to decide height, decided difficulty with what person; The most painful is not to miss, when understanding however too late already.
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