June, a 3 month that break -- Sino-US commerce chafes as before, Brazilian strike end, European Union strikes back the United States is added ask for custom duty to wait a moment, right of course each " the beans dregses of rice person " , the report of supply and demand of American Ministry of Agriculture June also considers a Chongzhongzhi heavy. So far, the author is as shallow as everybody the influence that the city after talking about this report and report to dregs of rice to the beans brings.
Well-known, supply and demand of American Ministry of Agriculture reports metropolis cent is two parts, the first part is reached for supply and demand of American native land soja cultivate a circumstance, the 2nd part is reached for Brazil and Argentine soja supply and demand cultivate a circumstance. Although the outside is right view of report of United States farming is different, but the author thinks Bencimei farming report or slant neuter empty, it is author my opinion below.
Beautiful beans respect or data slant empty
The author takes the lead in analysing with respect to the main body of this second report, in report of this second beauty beans, beautiful beans respect or benefit much as double as benefit sky show.
Above all, the author begins an analysis from benefit many sided first. The first, beautiful beans inventory or will continue to appear reduce state. Period end inventory will be close to soja of United States of year of outside predicting 2018/19 440 million bushel, under photograph comparing, of the month on American Ministry of Agriculture forecast for 415 million bushel, the outside forecasts soja of 2018/19 year whole world period end inventory predicts to be close to 86.8 million tons, under photograph comparing, american Ministry of Agriculture May forecast it is 86.7 million tons. The 2nd, beautiful beans cultivates an area to decrease. Because Sino-US trade friction is affected, beautiful farmer is anxious to the city after beautiful beans, cause beautiful beans to cultivate an area to decrease.
Next, message of empty to beautiful beans benefit respect forecasts the author. The first, volume of beautiful beans export decreases. Instigate to each country as a result of American for no reason trade war, especially Sino-US trade friction, although the last ten-day of a month appeared in May short-term gentle, but certain to beautiful beans is exported or having blow. The exit that Zhou Si of American Ministry of Agriculture announces sells a report to show, stopped on May 31 when, american soja exports a sale (be made newly and old make stage plan) add one hundred and ninety-nine thousand five hundred tons completely, under 40-100 10 thousand tons industry beforehand appraise interval. The 2nd, total output of 2018/19 year beautiful beans or will increase. The weather profit with American heartland damp warmth grows at crop, or will make United States farming reported to be moved on crop of the soybean in forecasting in June.
Institute of as above plan is shown, the double pressure that because Sino-US trade friction and weather profit are good beautiful beans grows, new York time on June 7, beautiful beans futures drops considerably, affect market of domestic legume commodity, and beautiful in June beans reports or also will cast off this hard " both " pressure, cause beautiful beans respect or will difficult advantageous good prop up, can maintain neuter or already will calculate " ideal " . And if beautiful beans slants continuously weak, beautiful commerce chafes in together with gentle, to home the beans dregses of rice and character still is to last benefit sky is affected. Accordingly, USDA supply and demand reports Sino-US beans respect or neutral slant this month empty.
Brazilian respect or reverse the position of the host and the guest
Say perfect beans, next we talk about this second report or will become an influence to report of situation " leading role " . the author thinks this second Brazil soja or will become " leading role " , because Brazilian respect message has essence to affect not just, in the meantime, more also to domestic influence, idle Yan Shaoxu, go up directly content.
The author thinks, this second Brazil soja is benefit empty Yu Meidou advocate because of. The first, policy impact. Because Sino-US trade friction is affected, bring about home from April the last ten-day of a month begins to change calm Brazil soja, cause beautiful beans exit to appear " dispirited " . The 2nd, exchange rate advantage. Defeat of dollar of Lei Yaer add reachs Brazilian money two years low, the likelihood encourages Brazilian farmer to sell a more soya bean, while stimulative Brazil soja is exported, the crowded beans that occupy the United States exports portion. Although Brazilian soja agio rises ceaselessly, but finite to be being affected our country market, among them, the data that Chinese custom Zhou Wu publishs shows, soja entrance measured China in May annulus is added than jumping, because buy Brazil of domestic scare buying to supply, but compared to the same period horizontal cardinal principle is held firm, china is soja of global number one buys a nation, imported soybean in May 9.69 million tons, prep above 6.9 million tons of April, for since last year July exalted, but relatively the corresponding period increased only last year 1% .
Of course, end went on strike to the Brazilian truckman at the beginning of June in May phenomenon or will be in short-term soja of haven of your our country alleviates somewhat to harbor pressure, it is good to have certain interest to domestic legume commodity prop up, but because show level home beans to dregs of rice inventory pressure is greater and market demand is low fan, it is good to cause profit carry brace up the effect or will suffer be restricted.
The place on put together is narrated, the author thinks to Ministry of Agriculture of this second United States reports or will be opposite domestic beans dregses of rice and character brings certain benefit sky to affect, and after report of United States farming is released, shandong Qingdao and oily plant of division of week border district also will restore to switch on the mobile phone, weather of together with home greets high temperature, aquaculture is entered low fan period, the beans dregses of rice the market or will change hard fatigued and weak. And the big event with the notable the last ten-day of a month in June still is given priority to with Sino-US business relation, its dregs of rice beans of immediate impact home as a result the price goes situation. In the meantime, decrease as a result of what beautiful beans grows an area, cause American weather to be affected to beautiful beans unusually will sensitive, bring about domestic beans to dregs of rice the price or will " fluctuant " more.
