After the National Day, shareholders experienced two weeks of a foul wind and a rain of blood, go up to be become card index, greatly point to, do poineering work board innovate repeatedly low, the month tumbles achieved 10% above for a time. At shake during, person of door of palm of a two meetings is concentrated propaganda to the enemy at the front line, authoritative personage give the decisive word, 3 big point to go against situation break up red, do poineering work board was to achieve more since this year the most rising. Same, face more serious food safety problem, incessant Yu Er of reduction of output, bei Dajun is this to check with all possible means, for your in order to ensure a right understanding of the facts.
October 16 is day of commissariat of the 38th world this year, when Sino-US trade issue grows in intensity, the food safety this year was gifted more meanings. Domestic grain reduction in production, exterior entrance crop is added ceaselessly again again impose custom duty, the produce that the United States is us imports big country, if the circumstance continues to worsen, we can face the problem with in short supply commissariat.
To this, cicada shellfish tower acts on meticulous always and precise research manner, discover after thorough analysis: Our country commissariat is very safe, this year is it is one of a few a particular year with maximum crop of the grain on our country history even, ask everybody not to believe all sorts of irresponsible media chaos take rhythm, production panic.
One. Countrywide grain crop grows 10 years steadily continuously
The commissariat on broad sense includes cereal, legume and potato kind, paddy, wheaten, corn was included again in cereal 3 great main variety.
Think commonly, commissariat of a country self-sufficient rate is in 100% above completely self-sufficient, it is between 95%-100% basic and self-sufficient, the food safety level that can accept is between 90%-95% , once under 90% food safety the risk is increased. From the point of a few big staple food grain, wheaten balance is superabundant, corn supply exceeds demand, paddy also shows only outlet pattern. This 3 person self-sufficient rate all can achieve 98% above, can decide our country is contented and basic " grain is main self-sufficient, grain ration is absolutely and safe " bottom line of grain safe production, end of basic supply firmly was in 3 big staple food grain in him hand.
Our statistic come nearly 10 years countrywide grain crop and sow an area. Arrive from 2008 2015, sow area and crop synchronism to rise, sow an area 16 years with 17 years compared to the same period amplitude is negative, but grain crop did not decrease considerably however. Among them 17 years grain crop is to go against more situation is elevatory, final grain crop is 618 million tons, achieved the history the 2nd high yield year. Door of Ministry of Agriculture regards a line as 1.2 trillion jins, be equal to or this numerical value can consider as prep above the bumper harvest, will tell from this meaning, our country agriculture is in to crop of 5 years of this 17 years grain from 13 years 600 million tons of above (conversion is equal to 1.2 trillion jins) , attribute the god-given successive harvest good year on the history, also indicating level of production of our country agriculture stood new height.
Look with current level of international, the commissariat of average per capita of a country has a quantity to achieve 300 kilograms, when 400 kilograms reach 500 kilograms threshold, mean respectively be in inanition, dress warmly and ear one's fill the level that superabundant, food consumes bigger improvement. From the graph 5 in we can see, to 3 years 98 years grain crop was experienced successive negative growth of 5 years, cause reduction in production besides drought besides, commissariat cultivates an area to decrease in great quantities, economic crop grows acreage increase also is main reason; In addition, the understanding of local government is insufficient, the city develops a large number of taking up that farmland also is main reason. After 3 years, policy of governmental readjust commissariat, ensure grain is main self-sufficient, grain ration is absolutely and safe, commissariat of average per capita has a quantity to rise continuously. Current, commissariat of our country average per capita has a quantity to be close to 500 kilograms doorsill, market food source is very adequate.
2.2018 year commissariat produces a situation
Crop of countrywide early rice was 28.59 million tons 2018, than 2017 reduction of output 1.28 million tons, drop 4.3% . Early rice sows an area 4791 1000 hectare, than going up year reduce 350 1000 hectare, drop 6.8% . Total output of countrywide summer grain crops one hundred and thirty-eight million seven hundred and twenty thousand tons, than 2017 reduction of output 3.06 million tons, drop 2.2% , but still calculate better crop.
Summer grain crops and early rice keep balance to be decreased slightly this year, cause reduction in production besides reason of partial area climate outside, more it is the positive result that reform of sex of structure of agricultural supply side boosts deep, the beginning of the year of Ministry of Agriculture puts forward " pressure paddy, decrease soja of corn, enlarge " the target comes true basically. Corn acreage reduces many mus 500 this year, paddy area reduces 8 million mus or so, soja and earthnut area increase 10 million mus or so, quality of agricultural supply system and efficiency rise further, reduced an entrance to depend on on certain level, raised the self-sufficient rate of oil of domestic edible vegetable.
Look from sheer number, we from the graph 6 can see, 28% what total output of early rice and summer grain crops holds year of output only, although summer grain crops is mixed this year early rice reduction of output 4.34 million tons, autumn grain increase production 1% OK and complemental short specified amount. Although will look with the most conservative circumstance, reduction in production of hypothesis autumn grain 2.95% , annual also can carry yield of 600 million tons of commissariat, satisfy 1.2 trillion jins namely ' good year ' standard.
The country puts forward in the beginning of the year " pressure paddy, decrease soja of corn, enlarge " also be sufficient ground gas, grain crop is close bumper harvest of 5 years of in successive years, by the graph 7 can see, 3 big staple food grain (wheaten, corn, paddy) crop is ambitious in recent years at consumption, accumulated a large number of stock. Disappear of end corn library was compared 2017 exceeded 100% , the wheat with least inventory also is as high as 72% . Respect of 3 big staple food grain, the output that we face is excess problem, is not ' the fear of reduction of output ' . Although this year year end happened certain uncertain big calamity, existing inventory also can enough the commissariat that assures us is safe.
Compare common people and character, the action with safe to commissariat country takes seriously more apparently. When in Sino-US commerce dispute sees dawn temporarily hard, our leader against a rainy day, safe production of grain of in advance deploy works. High level this year of 3 quarters first the place makes an on-the-spot investigation to be chosen was in our country to produce grain to save Heilongjiang greatly, the high level comes to Heilongjiang above all farming cultivate establishs 3 rivers management board, understanding commissariat is produced and harvest a circumstance. Look from historical data, heilongjiang commissariat sows what area and crop all take the throughout the country 10% the left and right sides. Want Heilongjiang bumper harvest only, the people of the whole country with respect to won't hungry abdomen.
3. Our country commissariat produces the problem of existence
Wheaten, corn and paddy serve as our 3 big staple food grain, self-sufficient rate is in 98% above. What current our country is faced with is not the problem with grain enough crop, however grain production structure is unreasonable. Economic crop, especially the consumption of soja counts an import badly. From 2017 data looks, self-sufficient rate is not worth soja 17% , the others 83% above are turned by the entrance gene soja is held. Come from 2000 entrance of our country soja held world proportion 2010 from 25.6% rise to 61% , the soja of be worthy of the name imports the first country. And in Sino-US trade issue, the main attention of produce respect is nodded even if import to beautiful soja.
Appear this kind of circumstance has the following reason: Our country soja mu produce have 140 kilograms only, even if increases governmental allowance, the accrual that plants soybean still is inferior to planting other crop economical. Although homebred soja is protein content is higher, but oil yield is apparent under turn gene soja, and our country major soja is used at oil expression. Farmland area is finite also be another main reason, our country farmland is 2 billion mus about, cereal of its semilate rice occupies 450 million mus, wheaten 360 million mus, soja 120 million mus. If want to achieve soja to be produced completely oneself, need takes up 790 million mus of farmland, this cannot come true apparently.
Be aimed at this kind of circumstance, the step that we can take is broaden sources of income and reduce expenditure. Specific for, expand internally namely grow an area, enlarge the entrance channel besides the United States external; A huge sum that reduces soja namely on one hand additionally consumes a problem, for instance before paragraph our agriculture expert reduces time pig feed beans dregses of rice content.
The consumption that we see a pig first demotes problem. Association of Chinese feed industry released statement to say recently, in the light of reduce a beans to dregs of rice consumption put forward to seek an opinion publicly.
At present content of protein of feed of hog production whole journey is our country 16% , according to the technology of low protein ration that can popularize nutrition at present, will protein level by current 16% fall to 14% , can reduce soja dosage close ten million ton. Not be all feed beans dregses of rice content can drop, the beans of young pig dregses of rice content did not drop. And in large pig is in final long fat phase, protein content is reduced appropriately is no problem. The personage inside course of study expresses, the carries out pair of pigs breed aquatics of new standard did not imagine medium big, the pig does not have the likelihood so fat, in steaky pork adipose little bit, crop can have a bit effect, but integral question is not big.
Open source field, the Ministry of Agriculture already made a plan in the beginning of the year, implement reform of agricultural supply side. Since this year, reduce the corn with a few years of excess in the past output and area of establish of water seed rice 1300 at 10 thousand mus, increased economic crop soja and earthnut to grow an area 1000 at 10 thousand mus. Predict henceforth a few years, national general basis is annual the increase production of each breed is added receive a circumstance to adjust actively of each breed grow an area, achieve the double balance of crop and economic benefits. But this is belonged to after all one therein the adjustment of long cycle, short-term inside we increase the import except the United States even.
By the graph 9 can see, nearly 3 years of our country import a quantity to maintain to the soja of Brazil and United States control in 70 million tons, and it is certain that Brazil and American both sides give our country soja to export existence of degree replace effect. 16 years for instance Brazilian exit decreases, the United States imports grow in quantity; 17 years Brazil exports grow in quantity, american exit decreases. And from 17 years volume of our country is big import looks, brazilian entrance measures one times what achieved the United States almost. This year American soja entrance measures reductive circumstance to fall, we can choose to be imported to Brazilian Argentina more. Soja price is carried, consumption decreases a few, the difficult when person and pig are overcome in all, it is so difficult to carry short-term pressure to appear to also be done not have.
4. Write to finally
Countrywide autumn grain is reaped had neared end, do not give accident word, this year is a god-given harvest good year. Production of our country grain is in the good year of god-given successive high yield on the history, appeared even the circumstance with the breed structure superfluous sex such as corn, paddy. Unless future happens national, very harsh climate changes, short-term inside crop of our country grain grows posture to won't be changed continuously. What we will solve henceforth is the question that grain production and demand do not match, is not afraid commissariat considerably hungry abdomen of reduction of output, people waits the have ulterior motives, absurd opinion on public affairs that traffics angst a moment.
