a few days ago, RMB exchange rate is defeated repeatedly 6.96 with 6.97 col, it seems that new open devalue trend, a lot of people very nervous, defeat 7 meetings in discussion RMB exchange rate how, return check scheme to come out next, say Hong Kong collects the exchange rate of abundant bank, already broken 7, but be in yesterday, the RMB is abrupt again exert Wu Lin learns back thrust absolutely, FOB from 6.98 soared directly 6.9, and in bank price also from 6.97 worked 6.92, want to but tall lever trades,know speculation on foreign exchange, go up to trade centuply at every turn lever, so also mean, yesterday cruel attack, go up greatly be close to 1 ％ , a lot of nominal will are faced with explode the risk of the storehouse.
It is by October, central Bank assistant president, pan Gongsheng of tubal bureau director returns those who had warned a RMB to become empty force outside, express, china has the foundation, capable, basic stability that confidence maintains RMB exchange rate to go up in reasonable and balanced level. Right nominal people said a meaningful word, we hand in handle, should remain fresh in one's memory.
Nevertheless, yesterday this cruel attack, perhaps be a coincidence only, because the dollar steeps fall suddenly also yesterday,was close to 1 ％ , dollar index from 97.19, drop to the position of 96.3, still be in at present drop, perhaps be not so is the RMB hits out actively head of cruel fan the air, probable it is the dollar gave bull crackdown, RMB make use of an opportunity to do sth, plunged into nominal one gun.
Dollar this drops, the money that be not the United States appeared actually of different level rise, but have an interesting appearance, that is oil price also steeped fall actually, bulunte crude fell yesterday control in 2.5 ％ , crude oil has bit of arms to defeat the meaning that falls like hill recently, the time of a month, drop exceeded 13 ％ , this also test and verify the judgement before us, the stock market did not rise, the possibility that goods rises greatly is very little, before crude oil rise, basic it is supply is driven, because demand increases, is not, so high oil price can not last.
A lot of friends come the vermicelli made from bean starch of neat person of outstanding talent of intellectual heavenly body group, asked about dollar RMB even the topic of commodity, actually this time nods this price Laoqi also is hesitant, unlike last year, dollar index is in 90 the following, we believe 2018 dollars have surely smoke instead, lend this judgement RMB overmeasure, have very large devalueing possibility, 2018 go force is main also test and verify our judgement, the dollar rose basically 10 ％ , and the exchange rate of RMB add dollar also dropped 10 ％ , but this when the dot goes to those who judge a dollar going again situation, more difficult, he has very strong random sex, this position dollar has been in balanced position, the possibility that is down up is some. And the factor that affects a dollar is more also, if consider economic factor only, already very complex, add continuously for instance breath shrink watch, it is to carry brace up of dollar intrinsic value, drive a dollar to take strong factor, but the US stock begins to drop, beautiful debt goes periodic, the investment opportunity that means dollar assets is reduced, a large number of capital should come out possibly to trade a dollar first, can push rise situation, withdraw to be met again conversely later undersell dollar, dozen control dollar exchange rate, so much air interweaves together, let foreign currency go situation compare complicated and confusing. If there is the friend of foreign currency on the hand, can change an in part first, operate to rushing with such method, the lock decides a loss.
Look from the angle of the RMB, have a kind of mysterious power it seems that, defending this 7 figures, atttack here to be able to stop abruptly every time, it is to be here last the Central Bank was adjusted go against periodic factor, borrow a dollar this again drop, a string of 1 again head of fan the air. The attitude of this and month of Central Bank 6-8 is completely different, await us to judge in those days, exchange rate is not done at all defend, indulge devalues, had anticipated at that time even can devalue the space of 7.2-7.5, but it is later before the col of 7, the Central Bank steps on next brake suddenly, make policy end very clear, so the RMB won't have at least to devalue greatly again this year space. As to next year, estimation also wants those who see a dollar to go situation, if the dollar is not pulled,rise, the RMB also won't be in devalue actively.
For the angle from investment, the vermicelli made from bean starch in neat person of outstanding talent of intellectual heavenly body group in Laoqi has emphasized repeatedly, the investment appeal of dollar assets drops quickly now, should reduce the configuration proportion of the asset such as US stock beautiful debt, heavy goods also does not have what spec value, can configure at present, but the configuration scale that gold and crude oil add up does not exceed 10 ％ , this part just is used be on guard of inflation, he is to defend of property is not aggression property, so although crude falls again, also can configure, if,do not pass before did not match, also can do not deserve first temporarily first now so crude oil, can first low gold deserves to go up, wait for crude oil to drop again a few, relocate rises. Main energy still should be on domestic bond and stock, at present the bovine city of domestic bond actually already open, go lever nears end, wide credence is likely subsequently and come, 10 years national debt yield also is firm in have fall, fell again annual is low. In integrated debt had obtained evidence since this year of 6.4 ％ accrual, before was being walked out of completely two years low fan.
And the stock market this, frequency of more warm recently wind is passed, policy is bottom already very solid, though have the view that market bottom is not by policy, but that just also is led probably, and do not represent absolutely. Also do not know even policy oneself to which are policy end in fact, which are market bottom, summary of ability of after the event comes out that. Future is very so long period of time, the metropolis that we hear basically is good news. And the spring of the stock market had been returned to slowly really. Just everybody still does not believe now just. Still be that word, had done right thing, and do not go forecasting prices, it is OK to underestimated us to be bought ceaselessly.
