Euro region economy is added fast anticipate be reduced, euro be thwarted faces interest rate challe

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Zhou Si (on November 8) predict, european economy grows foreground to face bigger risk, external environment is more queasy, the economy of 19 countries grows euro area likelihood backwater, because numerous element is affected, predict economy will be farther 2019 abate, reduced what economy grew 2019 to anticipate so.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) is newest issuance area is looked into show, because external environment is more queasy, trade tension and financial state hasten are close wait for main factor, global economy against the wind, reduced the anticipation to global economy growth, predict to was mixed 2018 2019 add fast will be respectively 3.7% with 0.2% , under this before forecast.

International Monetary Fund predicts, the growth of Europe and system of most main economy will put delay, and foreground of growth of euro region economy faces bigger risk, external environment is more queasy, as a result of " the risk of be issued to lower levels of a lot of mutual correlation " , the economy of 19 countries grows euro area likelihood backwater, the supportive strength of external environment is already abate, predict will farther 2019 abate, the reason is global demand puts tension of delay, trade and the sources of energy to rise in price, accordingly, reduced what grow to the economy of euro district future to anticipate, forecast grew 1.9% 2019, grew 1.7% 2020.

International Monetary Fund is forecasted in the report May, "Growth will keep driving " , will achieve 2018 2.6% , will achieve 2019 2.2% . Make from May recently more hopeful since forecasting, trade tension concerns somewhat aggravate, of global banking environment tighten up already made a person as if relieved of a heavy load -- sex of queasy, structure reforms the politics of Europe of prep let alone progress is slow and the England that undertaking takes off Ou Tan to sentence.

It is mature that hasten of flimsy environment of banking of system of rising market economy is tightened and commercial cycle tends, also constitute pressure to economic activity, international Monetary Fund (IMF) points out, chinese economy is added fast predict will from 2017 2.8% put delay to 2018 2.3% with 1.9% 2019.

Nevertheless, the economy that predicts country of this area majority grows will still prep above latent capacity, this is driven by domestic demand, and obtain employment and wage growth are inside needed to offer prop up.

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Meanwhile, metaphase, the risk results from finance is adjusted and aggravate of the challenge of structure of protracted, population of structural sex reform, imparity and the degree of belief to mainstream policy drop.

In addition, international Monetary Fund expresses, "Do not come to an agreement " England takes off Europe to will bring about England and European Union the commerce between other country and blame trade barrier are elevatory, to economy growth causes negative effect. "Do not come to an agreement " the European Union is exited below the circumstance that England takes off Europe to be returned to did not reach trade agreement to be in, return to the country of WTO regulation.

If England is gently and orderly,bank of couplet of day of Tokyo of 3 water chestnut expresses to take off Europe, before the 50th deadline will end on March 29, 2019, european Union and England are finished in time and legislation is passed exit an agreement, as transfer period one part of the agreement, england till the end of the year stayed in single market 2020, stay in custom duty before new 2021 future business relation is negotiated at least affined, british government plans bate to quit Europe position, the parliament supports the custom duty agreement of some kind of form, anticipate pound may rise 5-10% , pound add dollar will rise to 1.3600-1.4400 area inside.

And if England does not have an agreement to take off Europe, the poorest result of pound is burst of the negotiation that retreat Europe, exit a negotiation to cannot be finished before March 29, 2019, the parliament cannot adopt the legislative requirement of any pair of agreements, british general and clause of WTO of European Union basis have trade, and without transfer period, this will bring the biggest negative blow to existing business relation and British economy, anticipate pound may continue to drop 10-15% , pound add dollar may fall to 1.1400-1.2200.

And bank analyst points out Dansike, genu appears to jump after euro add pound is taking off Europe agreement to reach reaction, "What England takes off Europe agreement is hopeful anticipate still bring for pound prop up, the market anticipates England and European Union official will announce Europe negotiation very quickly to obtain ' decisive progress ' , technical area looks, the key is propped up be located in 0.87 lower part (namely 0.8698) , drop the space that defeats here to will open pound short line to appreciate further, nevertheless, teleisha Mei still faces the challenge of agreement of ministerial examine and verify; Accordingly, reaction may jump because of genu after we think euro add pound is announced in the agreement that take off Europe and walk first low, but will rebound quickly in the makings before ministerial examine and verify is passed, we anticipate pound will be fluctuant inside prospective a few months aggravate " .

International Monetary Fund reiterates as always, european country should " catch abbot add prep above the opportunity of potential increase rate " , executive structure sex is reformed, it is finance policy (use defray and economic atmosphere of taxation policy impact) rebuild space.

After crisis of debt of euro area dominion erupts, international Monetary Fund is reformed in the structural sex that advertises an European Union all the time. This crisis brings about a few countries -- the most conspicuous is Greek -- be in debt badly. But it also is alluded, the Germany state that has driving favorable balance of trade also should raise pay.

Besides outside pressure, the trade conflict with powerful neighbour Russia and intense concern make this area is hit queasily by politics. Rightist populism political party obtained driving growth in whole euro area, and take off Mokeer of premier of Europe, Germany as England will 2021 (if not be the word before) exit the political field, and Italy rebels on the pay plan 2019 thoroughly, this area front is facing not affirmatory future. European Central Bank also is about to end on the plan that the end will quantify full plan in December.

Economist expresses, economic atmosphere and inflation may be enough driving, your Europe Central Bank is able to start in next year tighten up policy cycle, but it what can happen after this is so not clear that what can happen after this, condition of tension of trade of queasy, whole world and global stock market are fluctuant, had made investor add European Central Bank the time of breath to anticipate first from September 2019 remit to in December.

The bank that collect abundant secures accrual whole world to be in charge of Steven Major to express, "The anticipation that European Central Bank tightens up policy is it seems that grab run " , central Bank of market digestive Europe adds breath time to anticipate make clear, the speaking aggravate of official of European Central Bank the distrustful mood that rises to compensation growth and integral inflation, get attention fully measure the index that long-term inflation expects euro division, 5 years long-dated increase and decrease balances inflation to lead a year of low that already touched from last week to rebound, nevertheless, this index is in at present 1.69% , still far near the inflationary end of 2% under European Central Bank.

European Central Bank starts the career that tightens up policy cycle very slow do not make a person accident, beautiful couplet store add the interval between breath to be a year with the 2nd for the first time, the term next year that heart of president of European Central Bank pulls auspicious in October at the expiration of one's term of office, also give added breath opportunity to bring a few uncertainty. The problem that European Central Bank faces at present is, when its tighten up policy cycle to start, probable it is American economy during beginning to put delay, this may allude beautiful couplet store will suspend litre of breath.

Martin Van Vliet of division of strategy of high interest rate represents Holand international group, "At present digestive expects the market is interest rate of the saving after two years rises to 0, this is quite pessimistic, the long-dated curve after 5 years shows, saving interest rate will adagio climb comes adjacent, but still under the level of 1% " .

Van Vliet says, this shows investor part digested European Central Bank to add breath cycle to plan abortive anticipation, perhaps say, they think the neutral policy interest rate of euro area, both neither restricts wasteful also interest rate level, the likelihood still maintains in the area that lose a value, this sense is great, because this means European Central Bank to will lower interest,serve as the space that answers economy put delay tool finite, show the Central Bank must turn to a quantity possibly to change again comfortable.

After global banking crisis erupts, include European Central Bank inside main Central Bank reachs interest rate depress the record is low or the interval that lose a value, connect in order to defy shrink and exhausted weak economy, the challenge that they face now is, restore interest rate before economy grows to put delay once more " normal " level.

Collect a net to remind, as a result of beautiful couplet 5 before dawn maintain Chu Zhou interest rate is fixed, allude will add December breath, the economy that reduces euro district future plus IMF is added fast anticipate, euro of the previous night drops greatly start a week new low to 1.1352, risk of short line be issued to lower levels increases significantly, the proposal pays close attention to 1.3 integer near col prop up.