City of near future egg is summed up
On March 20 on Wednesday, countrywide egg price is certain in slant weak, go up situation end, enter adjust period. Produce a division among them all valence 3.2 yuan / jin, drop 0.01 yuan, shandong, Henan is local continue to rise, heibei pink egg is small callback, other stability yield a division. Sell a division all 3.43 yuan / jin, with kept balance yesterday, shanghai rebounds, beijing and Guangzhou are stable, dongguan arrives today nearly 50 cars, exceed the market at ordinary times handling capacity, the price goes weak. Contract of Zhou San JD1905 is small concussion, but drop defeat 3500 integral col, closing quotation at 3491. Graph 1 for: Produce and sale two ground all valence and period consignor catenary takes situation picture.
Individual viewpoint, probability of callback of price of near future egg is bigger. If pursue 1, consumption is off-season in the price is pulled at high speed inside a few days of time however go up, of speed fast, of extent big, in calendar year in March peerless, column of a few days of memories drops considerably or does column of a few days of memory drops considerably or demand rise quickly? This lets person be convinced very hard. Individual viewpoint, of price of near future egg pull quickly go up, moisture content is more serious, the reason is as follows:
Trade price rises quickly, retail price does not have apparent change however
Egg price lasts low confused a month, breed door people lose patience already, have a bit rise in price active shipment, and the anticipation that the trafficker that sell a division rises in price because of Pure Brightness, dare to take money, produce area inventory to be transferred to the trafficker that sell a division and downstream market quickly then, but did not enter consumer table completely, return the sufficient test and verify without terminal market.
CCTV of 315 aid push
Every year Pure Brightness anticipated in March, egg price also did not see go up so fierce, have outside factor necessarily aid push. CCTV 315 hind, each district is industrial and commercial immediately respond to a news of qualitative inspect branch, terminal business exceeds clothbound egg to fall in succession frame, the egg is had cannot replace a gender, a segment gives an issue, bring about chain to rise in price necessarily.
Be based on above at 2 o'clock, the author rises in price this qualitative for: Of the stock move of industrial catenary interior and outside element drive, of demand of terminal of and rather than pull move. Terminal market still needs time to digest, the egg must eat off ability be valid to the person, and the clothbound egg that next wearing also won't destroy by melting or burning, will change an identity throw on the market sooner or later. Because this author thinks, the probability of callback of price of near future egg is bigger.
2019 " danger " - produce can expand
Amount of livestock on hand of can exact count measures nobody, can rough computative, discrepancy is very big, more what is more,the rather that amount of livestock on hand is measured and gallinaceous age structure all is trends, point of equilibrium of supply and demand also is followed seasonal fluctuate and change, try to conclude from quantity of amount of livestock on hand egg price goes situation, often be infructuous. Egg gentleman pet phrase: All data do not rely on chart, only reaction of egg price ability is true supply and demand.
Graph a data that egg businessman friend provides builds 2 foundations, say to come here graph, the author sighs with emotion very, record of formal schooling of this egg businessman friend is not tall, but old and consistent day, record egg price everyday, study law of price wave motion from which, this persistence and lead consciousness, admire making a person! The success of anybody, not be fluky.
From the graph 3 can see, in January 2019 the middle ten days of a month - in March the middle ten days of a month, egg price whole is in what come nearly 7 years second low, only prep above 2017, enter the middle ten days of a month just began to pull in March go up, and if above paragraphs place is narrated,this rebounds, its still remain into color time test and verify.
Annual the corresponding period is consumptive trough, mix this year only 17 years of prices are so low fan, the egg is to have what just needed, want to have be in short supply a bit only, can bring about rise in price, continuously a moon is small confuse enough specification to produce too can big. Author of this one viewpoint ever had been conveyed for many times, pursue as follows 3, compare calendar year only Feburary the price, more apparent:
More serious is, produce can grow impetus to did not get effective keep within limits, at present seedling of big plant chicken demands exceeds supply, book basically to in May. Spring is the season of life of be pregnant with, 3-4 month filling column, height yield an egg just is caught up with mid-autumn the consumptive height of National Day, because this spring often is the filling column busy season in a year, the filling column quantity during this decided future basically the prices general trends of 12 months.
Through the gain of train in excess specified length of 18 months, the industry is badly in need of a paragraph reasonable low fan period come adjusting control is produced can, and right now egg price is pulled suddenly however go up, gave up thoroughly breed door people the apprehension before, filling column enthusiasm upsurges again, the author worries about this most.
The place on put together is narrated, individual viewpoint: Mixed 2019 bred first half of the year 2020 door people gain is narrow, the year's harvest that in be, falls. Nevertheless, 12 months will have future Jing is not had danger, wei Zhongyun is hiding good luck, prices won't repeat the tragedy 2017, also can compare a bit hopeful 2016.
Machine of the Tibet in danger
2017 first half of the year, why does countrywide egg price experience what have no 10 years to last low fan? Reason nothing more than at 2 o'clock:
1, amount of livestock on hand passes 14-15 greatly too year tall egg price, the profession persists gain, financing is abundant bring about necessarily produce can outspread, although egg price is low,confuse 16 years, but feed cost is lower, fail effective keep within limits is produced can expand (similar this year) , bring about tragedy of 17 years finally.
2, produce can lack adjusting control space 17 years not only amount of amount of livestock on hand is large, have avian flu indulge in wilful persecution more, bring about the price that clean out chicken to go low continuously, breed door was blocked up to die a way of escape. Write down Denanian, the author the old chicken that a batch of laying rate drop badly, dealer does not want, can pull a free market of agricultural products only 10 yuan 3, the sort of painful clearly is in eye!
But different this year, amount of livestock on hand estimates growth, but the price that clean out chicken is high, pursue as follows 4 for on January 31 up to now, the whole nation basically produces an area to clean out gallinaceous price to go situation:
Northward and local already broken 5, whole is in 4.5 yuan of upper part, only lowest of Hunan of writer old home. Each district of the corresponding period cleaned out gallinaceous price to be 3.8-4 last year yuan, and whole of price of egg of the corresponding period is taller than this year last year, because only explanation is before this author,breed door people defer falls into disuse, devoid conviction. Tax gallinaceous value this year tall, only two is plant likelihood, old chicken really little or African swine fever pulls consumption of the meat that move birds, former inaccuracy is decided, and latter is affirmation.
Live pig and birds flesh replace a relation the strongest, want 2 senior fellow apprentice only not disappear stops, the price cleaning out chicken this year is not differred, breed so door people get actively much, egg price has a sign of disturbance or trouble a bit, can clean out chicken to stop caustic. Produce again can big, also put in the space of adjusting control.
Above is the author so called " machine of the Tibet in danger, jing is not had danger " , plus feed cost drops this year, so 2019 gallinaceous civilian people " protect this superabundant, gain is narrow " .
Futures of near future egg goes situation
Egg price is strong rebound, those who serve as close month 05 inevitable and strong pull go up, and just hit what before arriving at the author, make public to stop caustic is nodded, egg gentleman has favour to become dish of face to point to instead again. Not bad the habit that the author has light storehouse, rebound to add a storehouse, from 3380 go all the way, all valence from beginning to end follow closely dish face, a bit the callback can come out, want to be not thought out, see oneself.
The author ever more than emphasize: Futures trades in, scientific strategy is far rely on chart than guessing prices. If egg futures has main force really, the author mights as well lie between empty propaganda to the enemy at the front line with brunt, "Egg gentleman is living still, egg gentleman solid Pan Qun is living also! Egg gentleman solid Pan Qun is living also!!
