Why you always calculate the time that forbids the task to finish

I often cannot well and truly beforehand estimate time, do not know you whether same also?

Before 3 years, I whitewashed in oneself house 5 rooms. The head is a bedroom, I want to will surely be inside a week finishing. But time limit for a project pulled a month unexpectedly.

Then, plaster when the 2nd room, I this beforehand appraise the time of a month, right?

Incorrect.

I am thinking over, since had plaster experience, so at most two weeks OK. But spent a month actually again. The 4th the 3rd room is same also. And when final stucco kitchen, I used a many month unexpectedly.

Prepare plaster room every time, I am finished 9 weeks certainly. Although be done not have little at a month, but I am certain meet next time faster some easier.

Blind self-confidence ties went highbrow fruit -- the plan is fallacious. When the accident of time limit for a project that estimates the task and project, we total hard to avoid samples its agonized flavor.

1977, "The plan is fallacious " one word most first by psychologist Daniel Kaneiman and Amosi Tewosiji put forward · , it shows people underestimates the long trend when the task is finished.

Kaneiman and Tewosiji point out making when anticipating a plan, people apt ignores historical data. Our anticipation was not built in historical evidence (plaster room always needs a month) on, the characteristic that pays close attention to next task only however (the room is little, won't spend too long) .

2011, kaneiman is in " Thinking Fast And Slow " further illumination was made in the book. He thinks to reckon the mistake often can ascribe to the following two crucial factors:

1.Did not consider the finishing time of similar in the past job

2.Bold hypothesis won't appear the complex case that delays time limit for a project

But if we get the reason that knew to underestimate time limit for a project,good news is, so we can avoid to fall into a plan in fallacious trap, make more actual anticipation plan.

Run association according to American project (PMI) data shows, only 5 into slightly bit more project presses original plan time is finishing.

Underestimate the plaster time of the room, it is the inconvenience on a few lives nevertheless if really ever since. Can underestimate the finishing time of the task in the job and project, get badly if really ever since much. Best circumstance is: Oneself or group work overtime work; Worst circumstance is: Funds is insufficient, profit is scant, partner, leader, client is unhappy greatly.

Give the job and life brought disastrous effect to prevent to underestimate time, we must take step, cannot plan curtly by intuition only. We had better carry in order to issues 6 beforehand appraise skill, estimate time scientificly:

1.Use history data

Do Kaneiman and Tewosiji suggest in the paper 1977 " outward search ' does this category eye cost how long normally? ' , not only is with a view to in-house ' what special element and difficulty to exist in specific issue? ' "

If you are a of company APP new function to write code, so review the time that the group is built before and releases similar function place to expend please. If you are keeping the rich customer of a 4000 words, so think back to please you wrote a similar article to spend how many hours before / day. Next, be based on these data to do estimation.

Of course, you need the first step collect data, so that make the use on estimation clique later.

If you work alone, simple way is the APP that carries appliance has time to track a function, when finishing, grow what record different job with it, if need to estimate time next time, can consult its report data. If you are a group,fight, so you may need project management software. These tools provided a variety of meanses (if time is tracked,pursue especially with pleasant) , the place that records a group to complete different type job and project needs time.

2. asks other people to be you beforehand appraise

1994, american psychological association (APA) those who publish " character and social psychology magazine " the result that announced 5 investigation and study.

The people that these results confirmed to Kaneiman and Tewosiji put forward not only is immersed in a plan easily fallacious, also discovered certain and peculiar part at the same time: Reckon for oneself the job time that finish is not be expert at, can reckon for others the task finishs time to comparative however Oh.

When asking researcher someone finishs the task to need how long, they consult historical data will do estimation probably. And although can not supply referenced historical data -- researcher is in from this task executant learn all information directly -- their estimation should be guarded more compared with actual plan constitutor.

Accordingly, do not try oneself estimate mission time, might as well the opinion of consult friend or partner. After all to oneself ability, we easily hopeful look upon.

3. beforehand estimate time limits, or set amortize time

A paragraph of word of Don Lamusifeierde often cites in project management:

Some issues are well-known; They are the foregone thing that we know. We know some things oneself sealed; They are our foregone sealed thing. But still have sealed sealed thing, they are the sealed thing that we still do not know oneself.

Be in beforehand when the time of appraise task or project, you need to become overall consideration. You know some things will happen, some likelihoods happen, and of a few likelihood happening you however never expect.

Do not decide an element to explain this is planted and make much better plan, project manager applies adventitious to spend sometimes conic. Spend erratically conic aim to express estimation the anticipation at that time is likely span. In project beginning, what you know is very little, the likelihood grows of the project to be in when be being finished actually anticipate formerly 1/4 to fourfold between. So, if you think a project needs to cost two days, so it may need actually a long time to arrive between 8 climate.

But as the project advance, the situation that you understand is more, this span will be contractible. Till the project finally, namely when the project is finished, your ability is accurate without say it spent how long by accident.

It is conic and OK to be spent erratically to make more accord with mix actually more accurate beforehand appraise offers multiple choice. The first, be in currently through scale conic in located phase, you can be made beforehand appraise limits. If you are right what project element knows is very little, you are OK beforehand appraise value is divided with 4 reach the least value of limits, by with 4 reach the maximum of limits. Get next beforehand appraise limits (for instance, I think the project will be cost 1 to 16 days) .

If you are unaccustomed,use beforehand appraise limits, so the room that you can give unknown factor to leave deal with with the maximum of this limits. Primitive after all beforehand appraise data is compared probably hopeful.

4. is used at 3 o'clock beforehand appraise technology

At 3 o'clock beforehand the data that appraise technology asks to identify 3 kinds to differ, force you to face likely upbeat mood thereby:

1.Optimal scene beforehand appraise

2.Worst scene beforehand appraise

3.The most likely scene beforehand appraise

In view of our apt hopeful estimation, so optimal scene beforehand appraise is similar to primitive beforehand appraise; The most likely scene beforehand appraise may build the historical data that finishing similar job over; Worst scene beforehand appraise should consider in case the time length that bad likelihood expends the circumstance.

After obtaining 3 afore-mentioned data, beg average, get beforehand appraise value.

Rate of 5. computation error

Reckon through intuition when finishing, the near future grows of a few tasks above all, make good record. When be being finished actually, grow what each task examines later. Grow each task when appraise beforehand respectively then and actual when long cumulative, will actual when long total value is divided with total value growing when appraise beforehand, get error rate. Then, to rise beforehand the accuracy of appraise, you can be used primitive beforehand appraise is multiplied with error rate.

6. is used " trough period "

Daniel · makes the same score a gram to be in its composing " opportunity management: Of perfect opportunity secret mode " in the mood that discussed physiology clock how to affect us. He discovers physiology clock is controlling us one day not only in the most energetic and most wholeheartedly time place, and the time place that still controlling us to feel rich creativity, enthusiasm or negativity the most possibly.

Most person is entered after lunch " trough period " . Consider to show according to the United States, be in " trough period " in, people produces inactive move more likely, good mood is in the lowermost level that day. Below this kind of circumstance, your hopeful degree drop, be helpful for making more suit is actual beforehand appraise.

So final beforehand appraise skill is being used namely " underestimate period " . Most person is entered 6 hours after wake " trough period " , but you are OK also when when exhaustion or attention are not centered, undertake beforehand appraise.

Finally, comparative " trough period " appraise is worth and be worth actually beforehand, examine they whether more accord with actual.

Understanding plan is fallacious those who be helpful for raising us beforehand appraise level. For instance, whitewash next time when the room, I can lengthen predicting time limit for a project to a month. It is insufficient that I know to grow previously when appraise beforehand.

Finally, you still cannot overcome upbeat trend possibly. But if you can understand it to take action,give avoid, so you can prevent a plan fallacious brought undesirable consequence, begin to run time effectively.