Turkey this country " collapse dish " , yesterday evening encounters collect double kill, more Magendatong is released see empty Turkey lira report, proposal investor makes much dollar / lira.
Turkey collect double kill
Beijing time on March 27 evening, turkey collect the defeat below collective.
Show ISE National-100 steeps fall for a time in a few days 7 ％ , achieve since last year August new low, inside non-leap year all going up, this year from tired go up turn for tired drop. Close finally drop 5.7 ％ , achieve the biggest day drops since July 2016.
Additional, index of Pan Zhongyin travel falls for a time exceed 8 ％ .
Exchange rate respect, lira add dollar falls for a time exceed 2.6 ％ .
Ferment continuously as Turkey crisis, rising market money encounters continuously cast pressure. Zhou San (on March 27) , rising market money once more all fronts drops greatly, dollar of the Argentine add that compare all alone falls 1.9 ％ , achieve the history new low, since this year already accumulative total drops exceed 15 ％ ; South Africa orchid special, Brazil Yaleier, Mexico exceeds 1 ％ than alling alone add dollar all falls, dollar of Russia ruble add falls 0.6 ％ .
Peng Bo reports the comment says, local bank faces pressure, the abroad fund manager that cannot become empty lira for the hope provides liquidity. This forces investor to turn and usu. in anticipation of or in order to bring about a fall in price is other Turkey asset, obtain clear empty lira to hold the lira that the storehouse needs. Its are mentioned, include to come from Japan to live the fund manager of the silver-colored investment that send a letter says, they should reconsider investing to Osmanli.
Magendatong is released read empty report
Last week 5, magendatong releases a report to express, lira will face high risk, proposal client does lira of Turkey of much dollar add. Lira of dollar add Turkey soares accordingly even more 5 ％ , achieve the oldest odd-numbered days will go up since crisis of currency of this home products last year in August.
The report copy that sees according to Reuter shows, magendatong thinks, after the local election March 31, lira will face high risk. Magendatong suggests to investor " do much " dollar / lira, the target is lira add dollar exchange rate raises to 5.9 lira, reason is clean foreign exchange reserve of Turkey near future drops somewhat.
Before this, turkey Central Bank last week 5 announce suddenly, change considering money market situation, decide those who suspend a week of by a definite date to counter-purchase sell by tender, during time-out uncertain.
Announce in the Central Bank afore-mentioned decisions and small rub after the report is released, lira add dollar falls 51 degrees greatly last week 6 ％ above, achieve since crisis of currency of this home products will erupt August, the oldest odd-numbered days drops.
This also brings about Turkey government to annoy greatly, morrow Turkey banking superintends orgnaization BDDK and capital market to superintend orgnaization CMB to answer at top speed: Launch investigation to Magendatong.
BDDK thinks, magendatong is had at the report that issued on March 22 " misdirect sex " , " maneuverability " content, cause wave motion to money market, cause the loss of Turkey bank reputation and value. Be based on complain, superintendency branch launchs investigation to this orgnaization.
Same, on March 23 CMB (Capital Markets Board Of Turkey) announcement of official website synchronism says, receive what refer to its to complain, will be based on the 6362nd " capital market law " limits launchs investigation. According to coverage of Turkey place media, CMB points out, magendatong's report affected Turkey stock market, especially bank.
Turkey president Aierduoan (Recep Tayyip Erdogan) the warning says, those are excessive to causing hard currency demand and make misdirect sex forecast the banker that has responsibility to exchange rate, after the general election that will be in next week " pay heavy price " . Aierduoan says: "Those are engaged in the person of this kind of activity before the election, we know the identity of your everybody, we know what you are doing. We know what you are doing..
Drop to restrain lira, turkey Central Bank ever will be moved to 24 ％ on will standard interest rate considerably last year in September. Although this stabilized exchange rate, but caused extensive effect to economy, bring about a bank to borrow money to drop considerably, the fourth quarter dropped last year 7.2 ％ . Commercial confidence and consumptive expenses also drop considerably, sale of industrial production, car and housing sale are restrained.
Why this " collapse "
Some earlier moment, interest rate of exchange of Turkey lira of the previous night soares, break up between one night times to 700 ％ hind, jump again go up to 1200 ％ ; Interest rate of exchange of a week period rises the 280 ％ nowadays from the 24 ％ violent wind before a week.
The analyst thinks, turkey exchange rate and interest rate fluctuate considerably again, the reason of its backside remains the problem of exterior frangibility.
The fuse that the near future fluctuates considerably was March since Osmanli foreign exchange reserve drops considerably, two weeks of time fall for 6.7 ％ , cause the market to be anxious to Osmanli. Devalue considerably to prevent Turkey lira to appear again, turkey Central Bank raises interest rate of the short-term loan between the bank, with reducing lira become empty force, accordingly interest rate of short-term loan of Turkey of the previous night rises considerably. Although exchange rate of spot of Turkey add dollar devalues range is narrow, but implicit and long-dated devalue anticipate, CDS all jumps considerably litre.
Right China, right A influence there is what?
Periphery is not calm, firm look forward to of Euramerican stock market is firm, rising market had an accident again, turkey collect double kill, so right A Where is influence there is what?
Turkey " collapse " later, the US stock also is in small diving. Also was led even A50 futures rhythm.
Analyst of the negotiable securities that start line of business thinks, short-term in light of, the uncertainty of overseas money market, may introduce the rise of stability bandwidth, this means need to configure the tool of a few pairs of strong risks, like gold, derive article.
But from the point of metaphase, we think asset of rights and interests is in the strategy configuration period, this one judgement still does not have a change. Equity market promotes in the importance in Chinese financing system, overlay " long money " introduce stage by stage, still be configuration rights and interests currently kind of asset " strategic window period " , this means the train of thought that configures from metaphase to look, adjust the time window that also is long-term configuration.
The article comes from Chinese fund newspaper
