In Xin Rui 2019 economy look into forum · spring with investment climate and Ray Dalio " debt crisis " on new book news briefing, honored guest of many heavy pound expressed deep view in the light of the economy this year and investment climate. Dr. Ren Zeping is right the development opportunity of Chinese macroscopical economy gave out 2019 his judgement.
What differ with other honored guest is, hold the post of a doctor and do not have the economic data that emphasizes particularly on to go in the explanation, give out from the angle of commercial domain economist however 3 point of views with clear investor, explained among them logic.
It is speech full text below.
Share 3 point of views with everybody today, and the logic that we analyse economy and market.
Caption calls out of the depth of misfortune comes bliss, where is which 3 viewpoints?
The first is judged, our judgement is in about this year metaphase, chinese economy will sole
The 2nd is judged, chinese capital market is in this year will out of the depth of misfortune comes bliss
The 3rd is judged, if China can deal with concrete matters relating to work, commercialize drive new round of reforming and opening, will the new cycle of open China economy, the investment opportunity with best future is in China.
One
Everybody knows so-called 2018 was in the past 10 years a the most difficult year, in light of the expression from data really such also. Add e.g. our GDP fast achieve 10 years new low, what our investment also achieves just a little 10 years is new low, kinds of big our asset is behaved, 2018 A drop inside kinds of big asset of the whole world be next to bit money.
So someone says in ground of the pessimism end last year: "2018 is in the past 10 years a the most difficult year. Meanwhile, 2018 will be future 10 years a best year " . Everybody listens to a heart cool, yes?
But it is by last year, everybody knows I offer a point of view, be called best investment opportunity to be in China, the point of view that we offer at the beginning of this year calls out of the depth of misfortune comes bliss, why do we have such judgement?
Above all in light of us 2018 why is what our economy and capital market behave so difficult? I think to have so a few reasons:
The first, 2018 global money is tightened up, beautiful couplet store add breath, so American economy also is fall after a rise seeing a top.
The 2nd, trade protectionism looks up, to needing to produce a challenge outside us.
The 3rd, everybody knows finance went last year lever, our fluidity is tightened up. In dissolve debt venture while, the Xiaohe in increasing financing of civilian battalion industry is difficult.
These elements appeared last year an overlay.
But I want to emphasize here a bit: Still have the power of periodic oneself. Last year we are to go inventory is periodic. Where is the place with interesting economy? After if you are experienced,crossing cycle a few times, you more those who feel economic oneself runs the rule is powerful.
2018, we are round go inventory is periodic, first half of the year is sluggish goes up, eliminate money and money, we enter second half of the year to go actively inventory level. The periodic last year force, force of policy and external force overlay, caused a year 2018 is special difficulty.
To 2019, I want to have a few judgement. The first judgement is this year metaphase China economy will sole look forward to is firm, economy should be before low hind firm.
Why?
1.From periodic angle, can see cycle of the inventory at the beginning of this year continued last year go actively inventory, but go actively inventory level will be in this year 2 quarters exhaust, from go actively inventory becomes passivity to go inventory, what anabiosis namely is inchoate. We are already preliminary now saw these sign.
2.Still have the power that is policy sex. Last year 3 quarters, turn into what volume price falls together to go actively inventory is periodic, go up from sluggish turn into decline, opened the space of our monetary policy, policy has begun to turn in the 34 quarters last year warm. Policy end, market bottom, economy base shows it very clearly early or late logistic order. Without doubt, policy end is in last year 3 quarters, market bottom is at the beginning of this year, the metaphase this year should be by economy next. This is my view to economy.
3.Economy has index of a lot of banner sexes, e.g. the money put in, still the stock market precedes commonly at economic half an year. These the closest banner sex index appeared to pick up, for instance M2 adds fast sole to pick up, the stock market rises, predicting future investment and economic hopeful look forward to are firm.
This is my view to economy.
2
The water in the great river goes up after rising, everybody knows to always the thing wants float to come up. We can see foregone of market of the bond end last year gave bovine city, begin to walk out of the earlier evidence of bovine city in the stock market at the beginning of this year.
I did analysis of 20 years of macroscopical economic situation, after experiencing cycle a few rounds when you, you can discover economy resembles a machine moving euqally, and when the person has, be very forgetful, why do this have some of investor to be able to pass through namely cycle is obtained above quota the reason of accrual.
Actually economy is forecasted, occasionally everybody thinks economy is forecasted resemble astrological same, but a key that understands thoroughly world rule mastered after you mastered the essence of cycle and human nature.
To kinds of big asset, I am relatively hopeful to the stock market this year, and what everybody knows me is hopeful should be in the market the earliest one of. I tell best investment opportunity to be in China by last year, capital market is told to meet at the beginning of this year out of the depth of misfortune comes bliss. Why?
1.Economic sole look forward to is firm, the risk that we see economic stall is in eliminate.
2.Sole of M2 company be in harmony picks up, fluidity begins comfortable.
3.Everybody sees progress of reforming and opening of these two years of China, still advance actually faster: What speech of rich a huge legendary turtle will announce car and financial industry last year in April is farther open, this year in March " governmental working report " announced the massive plan that reduce tax, sino-US commerce negotiation gains active headway, civilian battalion economy is taken seriously by height, mutiple level capital market promotes new height, division achieve board and register make pilot roll out at top speed.
What ox city is this round? I think this is reform ox round.
What does ox of this round of reform have to differ with on one round? The anticipation that relies on reform drives go up one round, but the anticipation of the market runs too quickly, reform did not catch up with. If say those who drive on one round to bovine city is reform anticipates, city of this round of ox will be the materiality be born of reform, and subsequently bonus releases place to drive.
If city of this round of ox goes enoughly far, enough tall word, be the materiality be born that relies on reform and bonus certainly release, this is I and the 2nd point of view that everybody exchanges.
3
The 3rd viewpoint, be in 40 years of in the past, the sound that calls empty China economy this disappear those goes up, everybody knows Chinese economy created a miracle. But, recently these year add fast shift gears because of Chinese economy, structural adjustment, sing the argument of the sound pessimism of empty China to float again.
I think best investment opportunity is in China, and it is future 10 years, dimension of 20 years is spent.
We will view a few index.
The first, dollar of GDP 9700 of Chinese average per capita, 1/6 be the United States, the latent capacity that future expands is tremendous.
The 2nd, chinese town is changed do not lead 60% , the developed country arrives 80% , china still has just a little 10 years.
The 3rd, chinese GDP is added fast still be in now 6% above, be the United States two to 3 times.
Did to calculate roughly, arrive about 2027, want China to maintain only 5% to the growth of 6% , be less than time of 10 years, chinese economy dimensions will exceed the United States. We 66% what economic dimensions is equivalent to the United States roughly now, 16% global.
The 4th, china has 1.4 billion person, have the market with the biggest whole world and the biggest medium income group, 320 million person of American, 130 million person of Japanese, germany 80 million person, the whole world 7.7 billion person. If be in China to cannot find investment opportunity, where can be investment opportunity found?
The 5th, labor natural resources of China is very substantial still, and more important is we have graduate of 800 much colleges every year, we are changing an engineer to bonus from traditional population extra dividend. Internet enterprise of China and new economy are the engineer bonus of China of benefit from benefit from.
The 6th, chinese innovation does poineering work vigor very active, china is in new economy of the whole world alone horny animal industry is next to the United States, the new economy business with best whole world is not in China in the United States.
This is the main point of view that I share with everybody today.
Ladies, gentlemen, we believe want China to promote deal with concrete matters relating to work one round only, commercialize those who direct is new round of reforming and opening, china will open new cycle, did not come 10 years, 20 years, best investment opportunity is in China!
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