Recently about " forecast a gender to safeguard why to develop to anticipate not as good as? " article (the following abbreviation is textual) , circulate inside circle very wide, basically analysed the matter that development expects not as good as:
1, investment return rate is calculated hard;
2, need change thinking;
3, the base is not strong, data bulk is insufficient.
After the forecasts a gender to safeguard platform that introduced a few tripartite, conclude " people likes overmeasure 5 years, always underestimate 10 years however. Use this in forecast a gender to safeguard a domain " .
This author is to like to cite the data of a few advisory reports will do test and verify, and I like to study company case will analyse, the conclusion of the conclusion that analyses from me and this author is very abhorrent.
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Forecast a gender to safeguard development to anticipate not as good as?
If preamble author describes,forecasting a gender to maintain development is in that way: Forecast a gender to safeguard development to anticipate not as good as?
Existence has its sense, cite a few case that forecast a gender to defend a company:
Of GE forecast a gender to defend case
Understanding of a lot of people forecasts a gender to safeguard, be from " industrial Internet: Break through the bounds of wisdom and machine- - white paper of GE industry Internet " in, aviation domain of the introduction, business of help plane operation advances to be forecasted all right in breakdown happening, offer fast and accurate " comprehensive check-up " case.
The GE practice in aviation domain, aviation domain is current (the white paper of GE was issued 2012, point to here 2012) 20 thousand business use an aircraft, deserve to have 43 thousand reaction engines. Of aviation industry forecast a gender to safeguard development to rise, market dimensions should be very big.
The rotating equipment that short for Shaanxi Province rouses is online detect
The first when I know case that forecasts a gender to safeguard is beat of short for Shaanxi Province instrument of a favourable turn coming back is long-range and online detect reach breakdown to diagnose a system, go at that time when beat of short for Shaanxi Province looks around, this system has the function that calculates a gender to safeguard, and obtained first-rate result. I am in industry often discusses this case in the course of 4.
Of some flow industry forecast a gender to defend case
My industry often can discuss the forecasts a gender to safeguard case of industry of a flow in 4 course.
1, the health of the integrated monitoring data that passes pair of moving equipment spends diagnostic model computation, it is condition of health of reaction moving equipment really (red, yellow, blue) , give out corresponding equipment maintenance proposal, cast breakdown happening time; Can locate quickly in the light of breakdown equipment breakdown, find breakdown reason, push send maintenance beforehand case;
2, benefit studies new case with ego of artificial intelligence technology, perfect knowledge base of substantial facilities health ceaselessly.
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Of SKF forecast a gender to defend case
Once had made survey in bearing industry, SKF of the most important surveyor's pole enterprise is in bearing industry to pass implementation of equipment couplet net very early to forecast a gender to safeguard. 2016 when, SKF carries equipment online the service fee that collect, 20% what take company income. SKF from last centuries 80 time take the lead in developing condition to detect product and service.
GE, beat of short for Shaanxi Province, dimension of carry of flow industry equipment, SKF has had rife to forecast the case that the gender defends, do not know from where this conclusion that forecasts a gender to safeguard development to anticipate not as good as comes? Suggest textual author still wants to go on-the-spot survey.
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Forecast a gender to safeguard investment return rate to be calculated hard?
The accrual of GE is calculated
2011, business uses jet aircraft to amount to 50 million hours in the flight in sky. This means year to safeguard charge to be as high as 60 billion dollar. Engine is safeguarded occupied always maintain cost specified number 43% , namely 25 billion dollar. By this token, use industrial Internet to be maintained in engine every increase a percent on efficiency, with respect to the upkeep costs that can reduce reaction engine of business of 250 million dollar.
The value of the system that short for Shaanxi Province beats:
Below traditional pattern, the maintenance of fan has higher technical content, have very high demand to the technical level of maintenance technician, the level of maintenance technician decided service level of the client; And the poor travel cost of maintenance technician is high, staff utilization rate is low, it is a kind of burden to beat of short for Shaanxi Province.
Adopt long-range and online testing system, can raise service level, reduce poor travel cost, still have additional value:
1, the blame that reduces a client plans to stay machine time, lower fault rate;
2, shorten stay machine overhaul time, lengthen aircrew successive operation time, reduce upkeep costs, provide safe safeguard for the system;
3, the skill data that beat of short for Shaanxi Province obtains aircrew to run a condition, upgrade for the product offer data to prop up.
Flow industry forecasts a gender to safeguard value:
Flow industry is dimensions turns production normally, the unit creation value that dimensions changes production is great, if unforeseen stoppage, can form the enormous waste of raw material.
Home for flow industry to make sure equipment malfunction is seasonable repair, rife installation expert is done prop up.
SKF forecasts model maintenance value:
Of SKF income 20% come from uphold charge, already enough specification calculates the value that the gender maintains.
From GE, short for Shaanxi Province the case of beat, SKF and flow industry looks, forecast a gender to maintain investment return rate hard calculative conclusion does not hold water.
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Why to forecast a gender to safeguard can be you misunderstood?
Forecast a gender to safeguard have 3 kinds of participator: Party A (the use that points to equipment square, for instance the equipment of flow industry business carries dimension) forecast a gender to safeguard; Party B (point to equipment supplier, for instance GE, beat of short for Shaanxi Province and SKF) forecast a gender to safeguard; With tripartite (do the platform that forecasts a gender to safeguard technically) do forecast a gender to safeguard.
Textual point to forecasting a gender to safeguard what basically point to is tripartite platform, the content that so textual place describes is tripartite forecast a gender to safeguard platform, the development below this kind of circumstance is described like textual author really in that way, development anticipates not as good as, value is evaluated hard.
But textual author neglected Party A and Party B operation forecast a gender to maintain a function.
The conclusion that I judge textual author " people likes overmeasure 5 years, always underestimate 10 years however. Use this in forecast a gender to safeguard a domain " , will be a mistake.
1, to Party A, Party B forecast a gender to safeguard, had had rife application, overmeasure is done not have inside 5 years.
2, to dimension of tripartite carry forecast a gender to safeguard, be afraid without vivosphere.
Why to value dimension of tripartite carry forecast a gender to defend a service?
The first, industry has diversity, the industrial equipment characteristic of disparate industry is abhorrent, so very difficult conference has the current knowledge base that forecasts a gender to safeguard. And a value that tripartite carries dimension platform exists depends on gathering together effect, if industry did not gather together effect, whether does tripartite have the value of existence?
The 2nd, of dimension of Party A carry forecast a gender to maintain a system, need industry experience on one hand, for instance of that flow industry forecast a gender to maintain a system, gathered together actually the experience of industry equipment expert, regard an expert as the foundation of the library with expert experience, pass artificial intelligence progressively iteration and ceaseless and perfect; Additional on one hand, forecast a gender to safeguard need and business system get through, forecast a gender to safeguard a system to cast systematic breakdown time for instance, the data that needs to produce a system judges machine down time, need understands the skill requirement that equipment maintains, choose appropriate maintenance technician, need understanding maintains position of spare parts reserve, wait the information system of a series of Party A a moment. These functions do not suit dimension of tripartite carry.
The 3rd, Party B (equipment supplier) forecast a gender to safeguard, because equipment supplier knows equipment more,be on one hand, can judge the breakdown time of prospective equipment according to facility status; The service standard that assures equipment on one hand additionally and prospective equipment are improved have fundamental value. So such equipment supplier comes to beat of GE, short for Shaanxi Province, SKF carry dimension forecasts a gender to maintain a system also is very appropriate.
Party A carries the advantage of dimension is the Know How that knows an industry more, the gender is forecasted to safeguard below the condition that understanding cooperates with between many equipment, more with other business system compositive.
Party B carries the advantage of dimension is the Know How that knows equipment more, should not have the company that knows equipment more than equipment manufacturer.
Of dimension of tripartite carry forecast a gender to maintain a system, industry Know How is inferior to Party A, equipment Know How is inferior to Party B, the collect by nature that defends system and maintenance manpower, spare parts management, production management is inferior to Party A. Do not have the space of existence so.
Consequently the conclusion of textual author is worth to discuss.
Do not explain especially:
Dimension of tripartite carry, those who point to is the system that tripartite carries dimension forecasts a gender to safeguard technically. If be the industrial Internet platform of dimension of tripartite carry, include more business, or the tripartite that the ground floor that equipment business is based on platform does even fetch carries dimension exists possibly. The forecasts a gender to safeguard a system to had been done not have chance of dimension of pure tripartite carry. Textual the case of mentioned a few tripartite, do not succeed it seems that.
The software vendor of tripartite can exist, for instance of flow industry forecast a gender to safeguard, it is the asset management system that is based on SAP, business is developed to be developed by tripartite software on the development platform of SAP. tripartite software is different from dimension of tripartite carry.
Actually of equipment manufacturer forecasting a gender to safeguard platform also can be development of tripartite soft company, but equipment business will carry dimension (equipment business knows equipment more) .
The article represents individual point of view only, do not serve orgnaization viewpoint on behalf of place.
