Author | Zhang Shuanghu
Fast automation collects information of analytic earthquake focus to decide to the trend after shake, lash-up of fast newspaper, earthquake saves intensity aid provide scientific basis. But recording mechanism of computative earthquake focus from the earthquake is a time-consuming computational process, network of the station of earthquake of each district of eye preexistence bound that monitor is believed in fast newspaper shake hour, magnitude, place and focus deepness are sent to wait for content only in breath, the focus mechanism that does not include to describe seismic split feature sees parameter.
A few days ago, ground-to-air institute Great Master tells college of science and technology of academician of courtyard of American country project, China task group publishs banquet professor Zhang Jie in " natural, communication " a research shows, use deepness study algorithm, artificial intelligence system can not arrive after receiving an earthquake to record inside 1 second time, mechanism of focus of accurate appraise cipher out sees parameter.
Principal focus mechanism is solved
On December 26, 2004 8 when 58 minutes of 55 seconds, a heavy catastrophe that stuns the world arrives suddenly.
The indian ocean board piece with the Asia board piece boundary, produced earthquake of 9.3 on the Richter scale, the earthquake caused intense seismic sea wave, monstrous billow to sweep across again include the country such as Indonesia, sri lanka, Maldives, caused tremendous personal casualty and belongings loss.
"The indian ocean is worth Christmas holiday when earth shake, the seismic professional of a lot of countries is in go vacationing. " Zhang Jie tells " Chinese division journal " , "Focus is large at that time go against strong burst. After shake 15 minutes, seismic sea wave most arrive first Indonesian, but do not have early-warning however, create 14 states finally in all 220 thousand more than person loses life. Create 14 states finally in all 220 thousand more than person loses life..
Zhang Jie explanation says, from seismic focus parameter for, sea floor goes against strong type earthquake to may lift ocean wave, create seismic sea wave, and the possibility of seismic sea wave of generation of other type earthquake is less.
Focus mechanism is solved (call fault face solution again) , be when using seismic observation data to study seismic happening, focus is in active force and fault fault to use property. Focus mechanism solution can help the kind that knows fault not only, still can announce the athletic case with particular when seismic happening fault, describe the feature of slippery section, trend, tendency, dip.
"Except can help outside forecasting seismic sea wave, focus mechanism solution is used possibly still at be being forecasted by foreshock advocate shake, or by advocate shake data forecasts strong aftershock, announce the stress near focus distributings the state. " Zhang Jie says, "The focus that knows an earthquake slips the feature is very main, take in a lot of earthquake activities, we had mastered what a lot of fault fasten to distributing, according to focus slip parameter can be helped sentence numerating is which fault department begins an activity, where is its stress direction, around other and similar fault can appear danger. Around other and similar fault can appear danger..
Automatic newspaper gives parameter inside 1 second
"Record the difficulty of mechanism of computative earthquake focus to depend on from the earthquake, strength of traditional method computation is too great. Problem of linear of this numeric Jie Fei, computational time is long. Unripe to seismic hair around all sorts of rush to deal with an emergency after answering preparation and shake provide disaster relief for, each second is very precious. " Zhang Jie says.
1938, seismologist first time begins solution of mechanism of computative earthquake focus. Since then, reach focus mechanism parameter is the issue that seismic investigator considers to solve all the time quickly. At this late hour, network of the station of earthquake of world each district that monitor is in earthquake when fast cable information, still do not include focus mechanism parameter. Researcher often happens a few minutes in the earthquake or longer hind, ability newspaper gives focus mechanism parameter.
2014, institute of group of Zhang Jie task and Chinese family large computer teachs Chen Engong task to be combined, search engine technology with Internet, realized fast newspaper to give the focus mechanism solution that has put in the database, this paper is published in " natural, communication " on. Subsequently, this method throws an earthquake to monitor in Sichuan, Yunnan, become the most advanced at that time focus mechanism to understand fast cable technology. But this method accepts database obligation, apply at bigger earthquake to monitor extent hard.
Last in this one domain cultivated after 7 years, task group uses artificial intelligence method first, broke through the tie of the database, make this method applies to large area earthquake to monitor.
Current, the country such as beautiful, day level of parameter of fast newspaper focus considers. Bureau of American country earthquake can sign up for a solution of first seismic focus mechanism 3 minutes the most quickly after shake, undertake correction perfecting again likely inside a few minutes subsequently, most circumstance is after happening 10 minutes in the earthquake, ability newspaper goes out.
"The last few years of center of network of station of Chinese earthquake bureau is carrying high speed to sign up for ability continuously, average 2020 fast newspaper time is after shake 572 seconds (about 10 minutes) , do not include focus mechanism solution among them. " Zhang Jie complement says.
"In this research, we use deepness machine to learn algorithm, put forward a kind of new depth to coil accumulate nerve network -- focus mechanism network (FMNet) , use completely undee information to estimate focus mechanism quickly. " this paper the first author, already fastened the Kuang Wenhuan that pursues postdoctoral research to be opposite in physics of earth of American Stanford university " Chinese science signs up for " say, "Need much real data to differ with the training that there is model of supervisory nerve network in general application, FMNet can train with synthetic data first, apply at real data directly next. The undee common characteristic that FMNet concerns from the study in training data integratedly and focus mechanism. The undee common characteristic that FMNet concerns from the study in training data integratedly and focus mechanism..
"Artificial intelligence method can pass study, test and verify and test to perfect oneself system. But earthquake of an area history is insufficient, specimen is inadequate, how to solve machine study problem? " Zhang Jie says, "Our discovery uses academic enumerated data to do training example is very effective. Actually, the focus mechanism that publishs at present dismisses the research of the respect, also be to pass theoretical model and data to act instead get, machine study just mastered all academic knowledge, speed and accuracy are accordingly better. Speed and accuracy are accordingly better..
"The academic earthquake big data that uses equipment trains network of artificial intelligence nerve, perfected the accuracy of this system and dependability. " Kuang Wenhuan says, "Through study of a few days, after seismic happening, practically shake data enters artificial intelligence system, in the system inside the time that is less than 1 second well and truly estimation gives focus mechanism parameter. In the system inside the time that is less than 1 second well and truly estimation gives focus mechanism parameter..
Research parameter " civilian is changed "
"This harvest first time came true full automatic instantaneous newspaper gives all focus parameter, before this, this is ' study parameter ' , seismologist often sends a paper to report the focus mechanism of a certain earthquake is solved. " Zhang Jie says, "Can offer focus mechanism solution in real time, will lead global earthquake to monitor a level to enter a new level. Will lead global earthquake to monitor a level to enter a new level..
Zhang Jie explanation says, after having seismic focus mechanism to solve, knowing individual earthquake is which fault in the activity, conclude thereby stress distributings, forecast seismic risk. Although focus mechanism solves the public to understand not easily, but early warning system can be solved according to focus mechanism make a decision, inform masses risk of degree.
"A large number of real data test the effectiveness that confirmed this method. " Kuang Wenhuan says, "We use focus mechanism to describe fault geology and fault mechanism, also can use advocate the focus mechanism of shake will calculate stress changes, with examining the earthquake of aftershock sparks academic. In addition, the point source earthquake that the focus mechanism that derives in time can feel current be being carried out moves the complement with forecast a model to offer important, possible help is improved forecast an earthquake, so that undertake inchoate early-warning. So that undertake inchoate early-warning..
To the positive result that the group obtains, unanimous opinion is 3 reader of this paper: "Very stirring revolutionary achievement " .
"Raise an earthquake to forecast the accuracy of early-warning, need to the concentrated high frequency data that monitor is collected and be handled in real time, mode of existing man-machine union job is incommensurate already this one requirement. This one achievement is monitored for the earthquake, forecast early-warning business to realize fast, efficient intelligence to changed transition to provide solid basis. " tell when science and technology of Chinese earthquake bureau and car of director of international collaboration department " Chinese science signs up for " .
The evaluation in Beijing University theory and Zhao of director of institute of applied earth physics says: "Zhang Jie teachs a group to solve an earthquake to monitor early-warning domain to obtain a breakthrough ceaselessly in artificial intelligence, use field of experiment of science of earthquake of plain another name for Yunnan Province, reduce calamity career import to the earthquake of our country great. Reduce calamity career import to the earthquake of our country great..
"Reduce a destroying degree is seismic investigator main goal. When ruinous earthquake happens, parameter of earthquake of real time report is evaluated to undertaking destructive instantly and urgent and scattered crucial. This research is in at present translate into is actual achievement, the near future will be mixed in university of Chinese science and technology of research and development of collaboration of Chinese earthquake bureau ' intelligent quake ' try on the system of artificial intelligence earthquake that monitor move, in Chinese earthquake science experimental field is popularized in the round. " Zhang Jie says.
