Market reviewing
This message extent is total on the weekend much and benefit is empty, basically have the following at 3 o'clock:
It is foreign epidemic situation continues to be in erupt rise period! The whole world has diagnose case of illness to exceed 300 thousand, diagnose exceeds 220 thousand beyond China, do not rely on chart to announce occurrence " of new York city weighs catastrophe " , multilateral announce to enter urgent state, periphery still is a fleeing army's suspicion of danger at the slightest sound.
2 it is week of 5 evening, the US stock drops greatly again 5% , 3 big point to drop all achieve 2008 since financial crisis the biggest! In the meantime, crude oil steeps fall 12.7% , WTI crude oil closes at 22.6 dollars / bucket, global money market continues in swaying in the midst of a raging storm.
3 it is domestic " group 3 meetings " is urgent phonate, collective force holds out A! Card inspect can make known his position today: Photograph of lever capital gross has dropped than fastigium 80% , a appraise cost is low, foreign capital is occupied than inadequacy 4% , liquidity is reasonable and ample, appear on the market rate of firm go back to work already exceeded 98% , a open to the outside world won't stop. . . As a whole, tell everybody namely, show level not to fear, we are worn firmly, long-term prospect still is valued in!
Now answer dish
Without doubt, affect the biggest still is foreign epidemic situation to ferment to global market now circumstance, euramerican on the weekend data upgraded again again (Europe has exasperate sign) , to this morning diagnose case load already exceeded 220 thousand beyond China, american accumulative total 24148, italy 53578, spain 25374.
American diagnose number has been broken through 24 thousand, certain number still is met from the back ceaseless new tall, they begin to buy sheet for inchoate ignored, have the state of free " of " of a few advocate more, zhi Li was not carried, everybody agrees to know surely, begin to want to pay heavy price for this now.
Next graphs are the whole world number of diagnose of main country accumulative total, 3 are close to rise at 90 degrees:
On the weekend, I saw the data model of the report on a few nets, from push the result that act to look, at present periphery is in the first pace that just erupted, be close to us probably the first week after year (the at the beginning of Feburary appearance end January, namely in the first month of the lunar year a few days ago) Hubei, arrive first first 5, how does the whole nation come over, how do we come over too again, I think everybody should have experience greatly still now, now periphery (especially Euramerican) it is this circumstance almost.
So, next one chapel, the data before lunar base is led probably or raise position on the whole namely, this still will continue to constitute menace to Euramerican money market, global money market also reachs farther radiate in the meantime.
Do not know everybody discovers, the epidemic situation of Korea began to appear after take seriously inflection point, say so, new coronal is pneumonic infectivity is extremely strong but if each country intervenes in time,intervene only, the people is prevented accuse consciousness to rise, inflection point appears is a time problem only, be afraid of prevent accuse consciousness not tall, this ability is deadly.
Zhou Wu market, our A greeted rebound long-unseenly (shrink the quantity rebounds, strength still finite) , but in the evening US stock have diarrhoea, meanwhile, rich when A50 also is to drop greatly 4.5% , US stock dish early days money falls greatly 5% , in letting our heart unavoidable much a cool meaning, will open quotation want again tomorrow cool? Here, zhi Li explains to everybody, zhou Wu is a very special day actually to the US stock.
It is an US stock the first " 2020 4 Wu Ri " (product of this day of 4 kinds of period authority expires with day, can cause the market acuteness wave motion) , in the US stock in 12 old oxen, investor already was done chronically much, but the US stock goes ursine now, be being done in this prompt day already was hasten of general trends place for nothing, dropping greatly so is final almost, tomorrow A open quotation more returning is to should treat an US stock dish the expression of early days goods and A50.
US stock Zhou Wu defeats 20000 a little bit to prop up again, and the circumstance still worsens in, if we are calculated with more pessimistic means, if US stock this round drop 50% (the United States 2008 second borrow the crisis, the biggest drop be 54.88% ) , drop namely around, a how to meet?
This US stock from apogee 29568 drop to 19173, dropped 35.19% , and A from 3071 drop to 2646, dropped 13.8% , both ratio is 2.5:1, if the US stock drops to 15000 again from now, our A will drop 2470 around (drop 2500 around, will cause -727379968 equity impawn to explode Cang Feng danger) . Of course, this is the most pessimistic circumstance. Will look at present, zhili feels 20000-18000 area will walk along concussion of a wide cut situation.
Periphery is very miserable, nevertheless domestic situation is close friends however a lot of, also gave good news of a few interest on the weekend:
1, the vaccine of new coronal virus that China develops already injected into human body, the volunteer has 3 groups, every groups of 36 people, concentration segregation observes 14 days after inject. Group of major research and development will be finished April clinical before research, start clinical trial stage by stage. The plan of research and development of vaccine of new coronal virus can produce major effect to money market, vaccinal earlier research and development comes out, money market can jump over early look forward to firm.
2, on March 21 0, 24 when, the whole nation adds diagnose case newly 46 (Wuhan 0, 45 are inputted outside the condition) , add doubt newly to seem case 45. Among them, guangdong saves case of illness of correlation of the input outside having a place, this inputs brought risk outside the condition namely. Current, our inland has a lot of places to had begun solution to seal, go to school time also comes on stage stage by stage, everybody regains normal life stage by stage.
Taking one with another, the whole world is not at present stable, short-term inside the clear inflection point that cannot see epidemic situation, a suffer an effect still inevitable, already got effective apparently as control of domestic epidemic situation nevertheless, economic activity is on the right path stage by stage, a tenacity also is met more intense.
Operate the level, still be those adage, zhi Li has been told last week, show level to had maintained light storehouse to answer, cherish 2700 the following opportunities, if be left, that drops to buy strategy more more namely, nobody knows where the bottom is, it is an area, it is to walk out of the ability after coming to know. Although press above the most pessimistic case that we analyse, grail still has the space of 10% , a space that still has 20% possibly, if buy an index, this risk should be in 10% less than. If be on the right side of, do not have on 5 days of lines, need not consider (stop repeatedly drop to did not appear) , last week the 5 example that are a model.
From the point of short line angle, be issued to lower levels of 5 days of lines will constitute pressure tomorrow, add last weekend periphery is not too good, grail should test the effectiveness propping up of hatching next week 5 times even, namely 2700 around, here lives firmly still can pick up by explore, rebound target 2755-2785 is taken, zhou Si grows next hatching this to was not answered before filling, short-term it is strong prop up! The technology is analysed now is only on one hand, more uncertainty that still are epidemic situation are affected to what global money market causes.
Specific walk along situation analysis to see figure below, zhou Xian props up still in good condition:
Finally, special remind everybody a thing, can turn recently what debt fries is very fierce, this breed risk is huge, a lot of people do not know even basic regulation to be bought, very easy principal is not had return. T+0, a day of fluctuant 30%-90% differs, and deep bourse of this week of Shanghai all expresses, will turn debt trades the circumstance brings into key monitoring, the battlefield of idle fund and beater ace is inside, average person goes in even if send dish!
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