On March 20, majority of closing quotation of domestic period city rises, silver-colored harden of crude oil, Shanghai, fuel and bitumen go up exceed 6% . Basic metal all fronts rises, shanghai zinc goes up even more 4% , stannum of Shanghai lead, Shanghai goes up even more 3% ; Produce become divided, dish dregses of rice go up even more 3% , the beans dregses of rice go up even more 2% , zheng Mian drops even more 2% , the egg drops even more 1% ; Black is medium, whorl, iron ore is small close go up.
Message dispatch
1, in dispatch of chief analyst Li Chao weighs industry of iron and steel of coloured of letter negotiable securities, short-term and abroad epidemic situation and concussion of oil price be issued to lower levels ferment continuously, global asset synchronism dropped 2008 " to dark hour " return, sex of gold moving phase cashed liquidity crisis. In look for a long time, risk of American economic depression rises, lower interest once more open still has after times of 0 interest rate farther comfortable anticipation, finance stimulates policy to make a government indebted approach the limit, exist to be pounded further to the credit money system of the dollar, the foundation that in was being established, long-term gold price goes up, have the requirement with breakthrough bit taller history.
2, LPR quote chose to not throw the troops into battle in March, loan market quoted on Feburary 20, 2020 interest rate (LPR) for: 1 year period LPR is 4.05% , 5 years period above LPR is 4.75% . This is meant, go up 1 years month oneself period, 5 years period LPR quote parts be issued to lower levels after 10 base point and 5 base point, march LPR quote and on the month keeps consistent, for follow-up monetary policy the operation leaves a space. Look into the monetary policy operation of this year, research center of traffic bank banking thinks, predict the LPR inside year quotes interest rate still has 15 to come of 30 BP reduce a space, annual still may directional or fall in the round accurate 2 come 3 times.
3, in gold grinds the newspaper says, the decision that LPR keeps balance this month anticipates than the market more " the eagle is sent " , as abroad economy activity sharp slowdown, and the risk begins to spread to money market, sex of approach of monetary wide degree of tightness rises significantly. The policy interest difference of China and system of abroad and main economy has risen to the history top level, china's current money loosens extent to still be not worth apparently. In addition, be in debt considering the bank the pressure of cost, and the trend of fast be issued to lower levels of CPI of near future core, deposit is fiducial the possibility that interest rate near future reduces is remarkable also and elevatory.
4, American federal lays in committee 19 days to announce to lay in 9 Central Banks such as Central Bank of bank, Brazil, Korea Central Bank to build with Australia temporarily agreement of dollar fluidity exchange, the pressure that with alleviating market of global dollar financing faces.
5, near future superintendency branch already allotted a requirement, clear special debt must not use annual at land reserve, canopy to change 2020 etc related to estate domain, added establishment of cure of lash-up medical treatment, public wholesome facilities, town with stylish old old village is transformed wait for domain project.
6, this week aluminous inventory increases 14452 tons, cupreous inventory reduces 2838 tons, nickel inventory reduces 1468 tons, natural balata inventory reduces 475 tons, zincic inventory reduces 1586 tons, plumbic inventory reduces 10570 tons.
Key breed is analysed
Bullion
Each country Central Bank saves what city stimulates policy to come on stage for market infuse fluidity. Dollar index rises situation defer, daytime comes from 103 high point fall after a rise 102 the following, it is certain to was offerred for golden price prop up. World gold association calls budget deficit of each country government increase sharply, effective interest rate is faced with devaluation to lose, bring enormous challenge for money market, gold still may maintain tall fluctuation. Face aggravate of craze of global epidemic situation and economic depression risk pole rises, the fluidity with each country pure Central Bank stimulates policy or will face structural sex be no longer in force, and the structural sex that solves the market to be faced with currently hard is flimsy the crucial point that with epidemic situation bigger range diffuses, send remarkable instantly more in fluidity trap, the wave motion inside bullion price day is acuteness, the market is seeking more and safe asset to avoid danger. City needs after when the market decreases somewhat to the worry of systematization risk, liquidity problem alleviates, precious metal avoids danger attribute ability is returned to. The proposal on the operation: Silver looks to be moved less more, await market be pacified, gold meets big callback notices to be bought, wave band operation is given priority to.
Iron ore
Reduction of output of early days steelworks did not cause iron ore price to drop, instead the range that iron ore rises in price is bigger than steel price, basically be steel price is strong the bull that is iron ore offerred hope. As a result of the influence of epidemic situation, spot market restores steel value rate is slower, and useless steel price is relatively strong, short circuit steelworks produces profit space inadequacy, start working apiration is weaker, iron ore becomes the only source of instantly iron element, iron ore demand is accordingly better. But now the circumstance produced a few change, of early days trade to basically be given priority to in order to anticipate, as the drawing near of steelworks and downstream go back to work and prompt day of close month agreement, futures price must straight face reality. In hopeful anticipate below, steelworks mastered the speech of industrial catenary to counterpoise, price risk is OK glibly swims downward conduct, because this steelworks is opposite generally of inventory of current rolled steel " barrier lake " do not be anxious. But the pressure that raw material carries is apparent a few bigger, if later period demand is released,anticipate not as good as, steelworks can look for upper reaches to want profit necessarily. If rolled steel spot price appears to rise considerably, of steelworks of so short circuit answer produce can cause useless steel of demand of far to iron ore month squeeze an effect, the space that suppress price goes up and flexibility. Although nearly two weeks of Australia deliver goods,pick up apparently, but shipment level of Brazil still on the low side, right short-term form certain influence, but the long-term moving rhythm in hampering current steelworks masters iron ore price. The shipment of abroad mine is abided by basically " before low hind tall " the rule, price of far month iron ore is put in the pressure with constant move. Predict short line concussion is given priority to, unfavorable chase after tall.
Can change
Crude oil suffers mood face to anticipate the element of get warm again after a cold spell rebounds considerably now. At present dominant fuel oily unilateral and month differ the dominant element of situation is crude oil as before go up drop reach what the month differs to go situation, the oily supply and demand of low sulfur fuel that announces the reserve data of Singapore to make clear place now as before comfortable. Difference of domestic FU5-9 price is differred to receive narrow influence to drive by crude oil month now also small are adjusted. Fault of oily supply and demand of tall sulfur fuel deserves to exist continuously. If crude oil rebounds continuously, fuel oily 5-9 is covered instead, splitting decomposition price differs bull to continue to decrease a storehouse. Unilateral operation follows crude oil goes situation, if crude oil is short-term,have sure sign of look forward to, pay close attention to the manipulator of far month to meet.
Key incident pays close attention to
1, 20:3Month of retail in January sale leads 0 Canada
2, 22:00 United States sold sum total into house in Feburary year change
3, morrow 01:00 United States come to was become on March 20 gross of week oil artesian well
4, morrow 02:3Futures will finish crude oil of 0 new York in April inside field trade finally
