Every classics reporter: Every classics edits Wu Yongjiu: He Jianling
Now, except day classics 225 indexes break up infra-red, asia-Pacific is main point to heavy defeat.
Investigate its reason, basically have two, one is pneumonic diagnose case of illness exceeds global new coronal 320 thousand, another is, upset a plan to the economy of 2 trillion dollar, two parties of American fail to reach consistent. This is brought about directly US stock period points to fusing in the morning now, affect Asia-Pacific then point to.
From now the case after open quotation of European stock market looks, also be all fronts heavy defeat.
(data origin: Article China finance and economics up to Beijing time 18:27)
Daliao showed father of pair of fund of water of strong fund bridge with the greatest whole world recently, coronal shape virus is a distinctive incident, it can collapse those investor that do not make worst plan. This is a disastrous event that just produces in 100 years.
A lot of people ignored the impact of new coronal epidemic situation to the stock market and economy, be in early actually in March the first ten days of a month, eye of every classics ox is in early-warning. Release late on March 8 for instance " heavy pound! Is the whole world entered " avoid danger mode " ? Capital of Gelinsipan, Chinese larch all gives out early-warning! A is pressure great? Illicit collect reduces a storehouse stage by stage, whether to wait come " gold pit 3 " ? " , shanghai points to at that time still be in 3000 a little bit around, and at present already accumulative total drops 12% .
Now A dropping is to be affected by periphery element undoubtedly, and the loco that the United States regards the whole world as economy, its are affected cannot small inspect. If can understand an US stock to steep fall, be opposite probably A the analysis also has enlightenment. These days, a few senior personages take this US stock to steep fall with 2008 financial crisis, and big 1929 burst dish do comparative analysis, now, we are combed one time.
Is the United States apart from financial crisis to a few steps still need?The near future, whether does the whole world enter financial crisis to make the central point of attention.
Daliao publishs an article to appeal investor takes the risk that this coronal shape virus brings seriously, "Coronal shape virus is a distinctive incident, it can collapse those investor that do not make worst plan. Investor should be on guard coronal shape virus upgrades similar field is then big 1918 the level of flu. Those people that underestimated epidemic situation development may suffer a loss accordingly. This is a disastrous event that just produces in 100 years. This is a disastrous event that just produces in 100 years..
Tai Hong watchs Liang Zhonghua to think in, epidemic situation of new coronal virus is global market only actually a bit " traumatic " , and true " internal injury " the foamy of Pan Shenghe asset that depends on lever expands. Drop when asset value in the process, lever is ceaseless by " demolish " , go bankrupt break a contact also can appear in succession, had not seen these phenomena currently, we still are in the first phase of financial crisis it seems that.
Debt bubble always is very similar, the United States 2007 second the outbreak that borrows the crisis, because loose money environment let the dweller with credit poor aptitude add lever,be, magnified risk; And the money that lasts after 2008 is loose, the company that makes credit aptitude poor again added lever, increased a risk. Dimensions of debenture of current United States had exceeded the dimensions that resides a house owned by a citizen to borrow relevant bond at that time, and among them high risk bond is occupied than near 70% .
2008 when, american debenture dimensions has 5.5 trillion dollar only, reside a house owned by a citizen to borrow relevant bond dimensions at that time only 6 into the left and right sides, but up to by 2019, american debenture dimensions had reached 9.6 trillion dollar, it is dweller room those who borrow relevant bond dimensions 9 into above. This also explains after 2008, the rate that company department increases lever wants far fast at dweller branch.
And in the debenture of this near 10 trillion dollar, having 28% is the debt under investment grade, namely rubbish debt. Even if in investing class debt, having 57% is BBB grade, approach the level of rubbish debt, once economic situation is bad, management difficulty, these see the bond that seems investment step also the part may be reduced to be rubbish debt.
Of American economy and financial system another " internal injury " it is stock market, and the problem should be gotten badly than bond market much. In the money comfortable environment falls, appear on the market after the company lifts debt to get fund, the part counter-purchases a stock through 2 class market, push litre of share price while, empty increased profit (small make up note: The share that the US stock counter-purchases gives cancel, calculate profit to keep changeless, as a result of capital stock decrescent, EPS can promote) . Enter city, passive investment fund to be swarmed into in great quantities directly plus lever capital, brought up the city of US stock big ox that goes more than 10 years jointly, the appraise that also allows an US stock was worth a level to achieve the perch of 32 times, direct with comparatived 1929.
However the issue came now, economic big probability is immersed in decline, appear on the market company profit is exasperate, debt risk rises, share price begins to enter crowded bubble phase.
From the point of rock-bottom bubble asset, the crowded bubble process of the US stock has begun, all asset bubble are very similar, the degree that can drop to enough petty gain just can have capital be willing to enter the arena, and value of appraise of current US stock still is in 60% histories to divide digit level, sequel is afraid still can have adjust pressure. American debt city is short-term the more that be faced with is the liquidity crisis that panic brings, glide as gain, debt expires, the break a contact of materiality is afraid still be from the back.
Look forth so, big probability still meets this second crisis to ferment further, the US stock continues to squeeze bubble, rubbish debt or appear in succession break a contact, if rock-bottom assets drops to certain level, partial finance orgnaization or existence go bankrupt the risk that close down, the situation still is put in bigger uncertainty, we and go and look.
Concussion of situation of abroad economy finance, home also can be pounded. Beautiful after all Europe occupies the half above of global terminal demand, the influence needs outside bigger, plus the country course of study of Wu of to be taken orally restores rate relatively slow also, be afraid to 2 quarters economy and company profit also do not want too hopeful. Configure from asset for, short-term avoid give priority to nearly, save actual strength, await an opportunity.
Steep fall this with second borrow the crisis to have why to differ?Big shows president of the international that make silver, this the crisis begins from hypostatic economy first, and 2008 second the fuse that borrows the crisis basically comes from at money market. This the crisis is the crisis of hypostatic economy, also be the crisis of a public health. He expresses, cannot come with monetary policy and finance policy " dozen " pestilential. New coronal virus won't disappear because of monetary policy and finance policy. And want virus to exist only, economic activity suffers an effect with respect to regular meeting. Because the money is loose, is there money in the hand do you go is cafeteria consumed? Won't. Only virus disappeared, you just can be at ease go boldly.
Letter negotiable securities thinks in, a lot of research will be at present current American finance unrest and second borrow the crisis to be compared relatively, but we think to bigger distinction exists between both. From the point of the start of the crisis, 2008 second borrow economy of crisis traceable United States to add fast the money market concussion that puts alleviation to add news background to fall, second borrow the market break down. The finance that this second United States is faced with is queasy result from the whole world of new coronal epidemic situation spreads and bring global industry catenary to be damaged, produced impact to hypostatic economy directly.
500 indexes are in general of US stock mark this year the newspaper closed 3386.15 a little bit on Feburary 19, obtain the high point position of close phase, after this US stock begins trend sex be issued to lower levels, up to 500 indexes already achieved mark general 2304.92 a little bit on March 20, drop extent is 31.9% . Great flat period, 500 indexes are in American mark general to reached the high point of 31.86 on September 16, 1929, on October 24 " black on Thursday " US stock experience weighs defeat, will drop on November 13 subsequently to 17.66 bits, drop extent is 44.6% , look accordingly from dropping extent and trend, of current US stock take situation change and great 1929 flat period relatively close.
Will look from the reason, the collapse of economy of United States of great flat period dish also be the concussion as a result of hypostatic economy, basically masking consumable to produce can surplus problem at consumer credit, salary standard lags behind at the productivity that rises ceaselessly, and pound in investment and consumptive expenses reductive below, economic crisis also sparks from this.
Need finance of current United States from the point of historical angle queasy, we think to be caused at be being pounded by financial system relatively second borrow the crisis, the finance that impact of this second substance economy brings is queasy take the influence of situation and great flat period to the US stock more similar. From beautiful couplet store the angle of monetary policy, we think on the whole current beauty couplet store the action is relatively quick, current beauty couplet store the monetary policy that roll out was 2008 for the most part second borrow tool of crisis monetary policy restart, but the existence distinction such as the dimensions of monetary policy tool, content. Answer to look to coming up from policy, american finance that new coronal epidemic situation brings queasy or need monetary policy and finance policy cooperate with, but fall in the limitation of leverage of government sector of current United States, of finance and monetary policy still face bigger challenge in coordination. To asset value, venture capital still is in flimsy phase, consult before this two times the experience of big crisis, venture capital still has constant be issued to lower levels likelihood.
Golden firm closes in think, the economy that can see the United States nearly 10 years anabiosises, it is actually along second the same way before borrowing the crisis, the main body switch that just adds lever this became company branch. Up to 2019 year end, american credit market did not repay debt (include the indebted form such as loan, bond) remaining sum is 75.46 trillion dollar, relatively year end grew 38.1% 2009, be not liability of financial company department to be 16.06 trillion dollar among them, relatively year end grew 58.1% 2009.
2008 second borrow before erupting, what the market has blind faith in all the time is house price won't fall, underestimated sub loan to reach its to derive the risk that tastes break a contact thereby. And the station is in current when on the dot, the story looks be like returned again second borrow before erupting, just before this epidemic situation, the superstition of the market is the stock market won't drop, company profit ability won't be exasperate, the tall lever of the enterprise can last. Compare at second borrow the crisis and character, this epidemic situation concussion falls, the risk inside financial system is nodded and do not depend on a commercial bank, depend on the endowment canal with a few years of ceaseless and outspread in the past dimensions however kind orgnaization, especially ETF and the rise to pouring fund.
With financial crisis is different before, the panic that money market should dominate only previously and wave motion calculate live temporarily firmly the finance of the first phase goes lever, but it is certain that this the likelihood should see epidemic situation has prevent accuse effect ability perfect stability the first phase. Of current epidemic situation diffuse in Korea, Japan already preliminary get controlling, and Europe and United States had not seen inflection point temporarily, difficult character of the panic of money market and wave motion ends.
Next course may be hypostatic go lever, namely the company goes lever, expression glides for the financing apiration of enterprise and dweller, at the same time the risk preference of financial orgnaization drops considerably, this moment, no matter how is the government stimulated, won't restore entity very easily to add lever. But government of each country of this whole world, no matter be monetary policy or finance policy, the space that can use not as good as second borrow the crisis at that time, add epidemic situation to prevent the complexity that accuse, because this meeting spins,this percussive process is mixed bring about percussive sequela bigger.
Do poineering work board point to broken?Regard epicycle as the leading sheep of prices, do poineering work board point to drop greatly now 4.6% , drop defeated 120 days all line, so broken?
Do poineering work at present board point to still be located in over the line that prop up, whether cannot be of short duration defeated certainly at present so.
And if do poineering work board point to drop to 250 days all line, so broken probability is bigger. In light of the prices that reviews the history to go up, consider the market broken, sequel still can have to rebound well. Be like 2009 8~9 month, shanghai is deep 300 indexes fall to break trend string and be defeated, the index rebounded later a few months. 2017 4~5 month, shanghai points to broken, subsequently Shanghai points to also rebounded half an year is much. And the masterstroke of prices of wh some of which, innovate again tall. For instance 2009 in constant group, the Bank of China 2017, industrial and commercial bank.
So do poineering work board point to may drop to year cotton suiting? Analytic personage thinks, from 1929 drop greatly in light of, the first is killed drop extent is in 50% the left and right sides, at present US stock index is killed drop extent still does not have this extent, just 30% much. If the US stock continues,issue defeat, so do poineering work board point to or have drop to 250 days all line this likely. In at present the market falls greatly level, choose just about inning, when grail of the city after waiting for is the most panicky, can greet stage by stage copy a copy the good chance of high grade asset.
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