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Epidemic situation overseas continues to diffuse, show according to real time data, up to now, nearly 1 million people affected the whole world COVID-19, dead Yu Xinguan of death of nearly 5 people is pneumonic. And pneumonic diagnose case of illness adds global new coronal newly yesterday seventy-five thousand one hundred, among them, the United States adds twenty-five thousand two hundred newly.
Under epidemic situation, industrial production and people live daily get great influence, as " industrial blood " nature of crude oil demand also supported enormous pressure, the outlet that this gives petroliferous country crude oil also brings not little pressure. And sand spy and Russia hold to increase production manner, supply aggravate of superfluous and anxious mood, lower interest reach economy to upset a plan not enemy the benefit pneumatics that epidemic situation indulge in wilful persecution causes demand to glide is made.
International oil price continued in March next explore, finished product oil is retail upright on March 17 24 when greet nearly 10 years the biggest reduce the window, steam, derv depreciates respectively 1015, 975 yuan / ton, wholesale link continues bear pressure glide. Show according to data, before this year 3 months, main crude oil achieved the quarterly performance with the poorest throughout history. Crude oil futures is in Bulunte steep fall first quarter more than 65% , and Germany pledges the corresponding period of crude oil futures drops in Kesasi more than 66% . From March first since, international crude price dropped 40% above, achieved the nadir that comes 18 years.
International respect, although although American respect parts to be applied especially to Russia and sand pressure, the requirement ends " price war " , but up to now effects is very small. International oil price drops greatly yesterday, cloth oily lowest drops to 24.52 dollars, achieve since May 2003 new low. Beautiful oil also drops to every pails of 20 dollars for many times the following, for since 2002 lowermost level.
Domestic side, the home of information of the eaves in occupying that monitor is the oil in city of area of 30 main provinces, medium petrifaction is wholesale March all valence: Country month of 6 92# benzine all valence is 6034 yuan / ton, the month on annulus comparing drops 649 yuan / ton, fall 10.76% ; Country month of 6 0# derv all valence is 5812 yuan / ton, the month on annulus comparing drops 593 yuan / ton, fall 10.2% . Steam, derv than the corresponding period dropped compared to the same period last year 1306, 687 yuan / ton, fall 18% , 11% .
Telangpu calls tsarist Russia crude oil price war or armisticePrice war of this second crude oil, be destined to be able to be in " secretive of wind and cloud " the impress that crude market stays to be effaced hard. Since March, of this international oil price steep fall soare the concussion that it may be said is unprecedented, the history that which does not have can steep fall with this corresponding. Accordingly, market personage still holds pessimism to anticipate, short-term likelihood should reach oil price inflection point 2020 3 quarters, if control not successful crisis to spread further, of oil price anabiosis the likelihood should arrive 2022, current oil price is given priority to with concussion.
Martijn Rats of division of strategy of global crude oil also weighs Magenshidanli, as a result of the influence of epidemic situation, global petroleum demand will reduce 1.1 million pails on average everyday this year, surmount likely the demand during financial crisis dropped 2008, oil price may need to drop to 10 dollars / ability makes the market is balanced once more under the bucket. No matter the model forecasts slow down in demand of global crude oil 15 million pails / day, 20 million pails / day, it is even 25 million pails / day, these are not important. Important is, all results show the whole world is empty more than oil stores the space will be in in May or extinct in June. Accordingly, the only method that balances the market is to let oil price drop to enough to reduce supplied price.
In addition, arrange of international the sources of energy (the report that IEA) issues yesterday shows, crisis of epidemic situation of global new coronal supplies shadow phonolite oil chain, conduct to whole energy industry. IEA anticipates before, the net income of petroliferous this year country will be compared acute decreased 50-85% 2019, but fall the likelihood still can expand, depend on the extent of slow down in demand. IEA still drops to issue a warning to the influence of other energy industry to oil price collapse, say oil price lasts low confuse the changeover that waits for the influence clean the sources of energy to natural gas.
In fact, crude falls greatly will cause annihilative blow to industry of American shale oil. According to market analysis, below the collective influence of the price war between the petroliferous country that the Saudi Arabia of demand exhausted soft that in new coronal craze of whole world of pneumonic epidemic situation brings and Russia cause, the United States has the shale oil of 30% to extract chamber of commerce goes bankrupt at least, because American shale oil extracts,the cost of business is in normally 35 dollars / the bucket comes 40 dollars / between the bucket. And Hui Tingshi oily company (the victim of the first oil that Whiting Petroleum) makes crude oil demand unfortunately glide and natural gas industry, this company already applied for to go bankrupt on April 1 protection, also be this year the first shale of American that is immersed in oil crisis is angry since oil price steeps fall drill a company.
Nevertheless, notable is, drop in international oil price broken 20 dollars are low during, american government does not have await one's doom. Latest news says Telangpu and general Beijing made a telephone call now, think current oil price does not accord with the interest of beautiful Russia both sides, brought a few variable to the market, both sides agrees to continue to have a conversation with respect to energy problem; And say according to Telangpu, oil of very fast put up with produces sand spy and Russia the problem comes to an agreement, crude oil price war or armistice.
Oil concept low leave to go highCrude price drops to whether can last, decided to connect the pressure that shrink to be able to be opposite to rush by loose monetary policy. Telangpu has called the signal that should negotiate especially with sand at present. With Shi Weijian, low oil price is adverse to beautiful tsarist Russia, it is inevitable that oil price Xiang Jun is worth regression, but time inflection point depends on of epidemic situation control and national debt yield rebound.
At present the increase a number newly or increases by degrees condition of abroad epidemic situation, the Zhou Yicai before this announces Telangpu extend the deadline that is restricted to go, crude price can withstand pressure walks out of current weak situation situation, it is good to be about to see advantage with Likongyin the rich of element weichis.
The likelihood of prospective oil price depends on supply side United States intervening negotiation, satisfy the partial requirement of sand spy and Russia, once profit is good,the element is held windward, be depressed long already crude price appears very likely newspaper plural rebounds, crude oil all valence still can be in 40 dollars / the bucket is the following with respect to unknown. Additional, inventory of American crude oil still can digest current low oil price continuously. Inventory of commerce of American crude oil achieved 530 million pails in March 2017 (EIA data) , current distance is highest 530 million pails of spaces that still have nearly 80 million pails. Theoretic, crude oil is short-term have return dragoon power.
China is newest those who announce is March PMI data considerably good at anticipating, overlay Asia stock market picks up, now dish Sino-US oil and cloth oil all appear small rebound, oil price drops situation alleviate somewhat. End at present, crude oil breaks through Bulunte 26 dollars / bucket col, go up in a few days amount to 6% ; Beautiful crude oil goes up exceed 5% , quote exceeds 21 dollars / bucket col.
Suffer effect of oil price shock, reaction is in related oil price on the stock, oil of field of harbor stock market in succession low leave to go high; Among them, end noon closing quotation, chinese petro-chemical share (00386-HK) is low leave to go high go up 4.83% newspapers 3.91 HK dollar, and this inside year tired drop exceed 20% ; Chinese oil stock (00857-HK) goes up 4.66% newspapers 2.92 HK dollar, this inside year tired drop nearly 30% ; Sea oil field serves in (02883-HK) promotes 4.24% journals 6.14 HK dollar. Additional, in the sea is oily (00883-HK) is early dish drop for a time exceed 3% , go tall ceaselessly subsequently, noon closes go up exceed 3% to go up 3.11% newspapers 8.28 HK dollar, this inside year tired already drop about 4 into.
And A respect, oil concept opposite wave motion is lesser, but overall also be to appear low the state that opens to go high. End noon closing quotation, sea oil is taken in (601808-CN) goes up nearly 3% , shanghai petrifaction (petrifaction of 600688-CN) , China (600028-CN) follows rise.
Author: Mao Li
Editor: Peng Shangjing
