Since this year March, global money market has a word to appear often " The Recession Risk Is Real " , translating one's purpose in coming to think of is: The risk of economic depression is actual existence.
01 history on did the most severe decline come? Two big sign, the United States or already entered economic depression
Global economy overlord -- the level that American economic depression had reached to time it seems that.
Two clear signal:
1) tide of American company beak a contract or will come
Low interest rate lets leasehold become easier.
Since March, beautiful couplet store carry out a series of loose policy to help American enterprise answer epidemic situation to pound, loan of enterprise criterion borrow answers the crisis, the money that the enterprise lends is not to invest production, pay dividend to partner to counter-purchase a stock however.
Ye talking, before beautiful couplet store the president also admits: The enterprise is leasehold mad tide " brought a risk to economy " .
Concern of Ye human relations is in next the meeting in a few months sees more and similar case, this may cause tide of beak a contract of a company.
2) number of American application unemployment benefit breaks through historical record high!
FED forecasts: Because this is unemployed,have 47 million person
The United States asks violent wind of unemployed gold number to rise at the beginning of last week to record-breaking even more 6.6 million person, final in March two weeks unemployed gold number is asked to add first to 10 million person.
Picture origin / graph bug originality
The data that △ released on April 2 according to American Ministry of Labour says, up to on March 28, the number that applies unemployment benefit is 6, 648, 000, and a week before this, namely up to on March 21, this number is 3.3 million.
Beautiful silver predicts, american general loss 16 million to station of 20 million works, this may bring about unemployment rate to rise in the violent wind inside a few months to 15.6% , exceed 2007-09 far year the unemployment rate during economic depression.
Bureau of American federal reserve (Fed) forecast even, because this is unemployed,the United States will have 47 million person, unemployment rate is as high as 32.1% , took the place of 1930 more than " economic great depression " 24.9 of period. % .
Comment on: Business failure and worker unemployment are the main economy phenomenon of economic depression.
This Zhou Er, fill those who reduced pair of United States economy high to forecast, predict GDP will drop first quarter 9% , 2 quarters fall will achieve 34% breathtaking, it is the wrongest number since World War II.
Be in yesterday, shale oil of press United States drills an enterprise -- Huai Ting Petroleum Company applies for to go bankrupt protection, involve debt of 3.6 billion dollar and capital fund of 7.3 billion dollar, become what when oil price steeps fall first application goes bankrupt is large appear on the market company.
Under epidemic situation influence, flat company sample book or will increasing.
Grade of mark general whole world and company of Moody investor service are in with more than 10 years since the credit grade that the rapiddest rate reduces American company.
The data of collect of △ Peng rich shows, companies of afore-mentioned two big grade reduce first quarter grade and on those who move grade amount compare than exceeding 3 1, it is from financial crisis the biggest quarter since the most serious period is counted word.
Besides the sources of energy kind company grade drops, automobile industry also is heavy disaster area.
Tycoon of another car of the closest United States -- Ford company also is dropped by mark general grade comes rubbish class. This once is famous in car tycoon of the United States, became current cycle the biggest " degenerate angel " .
Arrive from oil car, in accompany Covid-19 virus to erupt and will demote under tide, the company that has American which industry hardly be able to escape by sheer luck.
03 whole worlds in all this is cool hot! Subsist means everything
And scan widely whole world at the moment, in all this is cool hot. American economic depression, destiny of other economy system will how?
2020 Geng Zinian, had done receive " since having a record the most severe decline " prepare!
Current asset condition, just was accorded with " economic depression " advent when all and bodeful --
The dollar goes up, stock, commodity, bond, gold drops.
Read related: (the dollar is mad, brush 3 years new tall! Market panic mood already exploded watch)
As expected, each days when began 2020, we are in testimony history. Issue a black swan, want to take off from the United States.
But, of global unifinication today, the economic put oneself in another's position with the largest whole world appears decline signal, china is impossible also pay attention to one's own moral uplift without thought of others.
See these stories:
Current China has been bound together with world deepness, close a door impossibly to come oneself play.
Regard the world as the factory, we are very much the industry serves for the world. 2019 the 1/5 that GDP of Chinese average per capita is the United States, european 1/4, domestic purchasing power cannot prop up our so giant engineering capability.
Economic depression trend of the United States not has allowed doubt, the gold in the streak before compound interest elder sister can'ts help remembering also released to grind newspaper -- reduce Chinese GDP to add fast forecast to 2.6% !
But, gold is forecasted in gain better control as epidemic situation, next year hopeful is greeted anabiosis. Chinese economy to good trend unassailable also, on the meeting that does newly in the country, the big Ga of a 3 meetings phonates in succession:
"A few problems that encounter currently won't affect our country economy long-term to nice aspect, our country economy or the economy that will continue to maintain high quality grow this year. Our country economy or the economy that will continue to maintain high quality grow this year..
Investment, exit, consumer 3 drive carriage, who is is motive force the most powerful? The orgnaization forecasts GDP of next year our country to add fast litre to 9% , what to rely on?
Li became clear these problems, the investment that can be our the second half probably finds way. Walk out of epidemic situation dense fog, where is the power that prospective economy grows?
According to statistical bureau the data 2019, the contribution that annual consumed defray finally 2019 is led slightly under 60% , for 57.8% ; Annual of rate of capital investment contribution was achieved 31.2% ; Rate of contribution of imports and exports is 11% .
Accordingly, consuming ability is Chinese economy growth the first help motive force, it is investment next, finally is imports and exports.
Anyway, an ash of the times, fall on individual head, it is a hill.
Hind the trend of economy of China of epidemic situation times affects popular feeling.
Lived so long, this year is really history go up one year of the strangest flower. Do not have for years so had happened so thing, before New Year " man can conquer nature " brave words instant is hit face, the target this year is only unexpectedly " live on a degradation at troubled times " .
At the moment, no matter be as to the country, still be enterprise, individual,
Reduce indebted, reject lever, enhance income, cash is king, (the tears of blood of instantly is expostulatory: Dispersive risk, cash is king)
Subsist means everything.
